NFL Player Props Week 18 – Sunday’s Best NFL Prop Bets (Jan. 5)

By John Hyslop in NFL Football
Published:

- We have to start looking for moves for the NFL Week 18 slate on January 5th, 2025
- For Week 18 we should really look into incentives for our player prop bets
- Getting bets in on Friday is my favorite strategy, and it’s no different for this week
We’re finally to the last week of the NFL Season. It feels like just yesterday that we were locking into Week 1 with an entire season in front of us. Now, we’re looking ahead into the NFL playoffs and beyond. It’s kind of sad when we think about it but I choose not to be upset. We need not be sad that it’s over, but instead be happy that it happened. I saw that on a bumper sticker once and it changed everything for me. So instead of being sad, I say we lock in for one more full NFL slate and leave this regular season as the winners that we know we are. Feels like the move.
Week 18 NFL Player Props and Odds
Player | Receptions | Receiving Yards | Pick |
---|---|---|---|
Courtland Sutton (Broncos) | 5.5 (Ov +110 / Un -145) | 73.5 (Ov -120 / Un -110) | 80+ Receiving Yards (+120) |
Player | Receptions | Receiving Yards | Pick |
Mike Evans (Buccaneers) | N/A | 98.5 (Ov -110 / Un -110) | Over 98.5 Receiving Yards (-110) |
Courtland Sutton Gets His On Sunday
Player incentives are all the rage in the final week of the NFL season. There was a time when these things were hard to figure out but now everyone with a Twitter account tweets about them. It kind of stinks in the sense that some of them are complete nonsense that we’re dumber for knowing about.
But, before we dismiss all of them as nonsense, we should definitely consider some to be pure gold.
Courtland Sutton needs 82 receiving yards to earn $500K bonus.
99% of money is on Sutton OVER 65.5 receiving yards at @BetMGM pic.twitter.com/1WJbE6d22R
— John Ewing (@johnewing) January 3, 2025
Here’s the thing with these player incentives, they aren’t the end all be all but they do matter. Of course these teams care more about winning than one player’s pocket getting fatter. Still, whenever we can find incentives that are good for both, we should get loose on them. It’s just the way.
In the case of Courtland Sutton, I think the smoke is real. For starters, he’s the best receiver in the Denver Broncos’ receiver room. That’s important because the Denver Broncos are in a must-win situation. On top of that, 80+ receiving yards out of this guy is definitely doable since he’s an absolute beast.
What makes it even better is the fact that the Kansas City Chiefs are resting their starters. Sure some will be out there but it won’t be the main guys. We’re getting a softer secondary playing a team that is hellbent on winning. On top of that, their best receiver only needs 82 yards to get paid. At +120, it would be irresponsible of us to not bet this.
- The Pick: Courtland Sutton 80+ Receiving Yards (+120) – DraftKings
Mike Evans Is A Lock
There is no such thing as a “lock” in the world of sports betting. In fact, the term “lock” is dumb and has been since the first time it was used to describe a sports bet. It literally has no place in this industry.
With all of that being said, Mike Evans is an absolute lock to go over 98.5 receiving yards this week.
Bucs WR Mike Evans is not just 85 receiving yards shy of extending his record for most consecutive 1,000 yard seasons to begin a career, he’s also 5 catches and 85 yards away from earning a $3M escalator on his 2025 base salary.
A chance for the playoffs and big💰 in Week 18.
— Field Yates (@FieldYates) January 2, 2025
Here’s the thing, this guy has gone over 1000 yards every single season he has been in the NFL. It’s literally what he does. The man holds the record for most 1000 receiving yards to begin an NFL career. He’s never NOT gone over 1000 yards in his entire career and all he needs is 85 more yards and he’ll do it again this season.
On top of that, the Buccaneers need to win this game. It will be an all hands on deck approach from these guys on Sunday. Lucky for them, they’re playing the New Orleans Saints who are literally playing for nothing. Some will be flying to Cancun directly from the game. All I am saying is, there is no chance Mike Evans finishes with less than 100 yards on Sunday. This is almost too easy.
- The Pick: Mike Evans Over 98.5 Receiving Yards (-110) – BetMGM
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John has spent the past 20+ years betting sports on a daily basis and is considered by many to be a walking sports betting encyclopedia. From obscure player props to sides and totals, if there is an angle, John will find it.