Best Thursday Night Football Props for Week 5 Colts vs Patriots
- Colts vs Patriots on Thursday Night Football kicks off the NFL’s Week 5 schedule.
- Both teams are/could be missing key offensive weapons.
- Below, find the three prop bets we are playing in tonight’s tilt.
We missed on our big swing in the Week 4 Vikings vs Rams props (Adam Thielen to score the first TD), but still finished the night up $24 (based on three $100 wagers) continuing a very strong TNF prop-betting season.
Thursday night’s Colts vs Patriots game (8:20 PM ET) sees both offenses undermanned. The Colts (1-3), coming off a heartbreaking 37-34 OT loss to Houston, are missing TY Hilton, Jack Doyle, and Marlon Mack. The Patriots (2-2), who calmed all fears with a 38-7 demolition of Miami last Sunday, could be without Josh Gordon (hamstring) while Rob Gronkowski (ankle) is considerably less than 100%.
Does that mean we’re banking on a low-scoring, defensive-minded game?
Follow this link for a full Colts vs Patriots game preview and score prediction. Keep reading to get our take on the game-within-the-game, i.e. the three side bets we’re most confident in.
Prop #1: No Defensive/Special Teams Touchdowns
| Will there be a defensive/special teams TD in the game? | Odds |
|---|---|
| YES | +180 |
| NO | -220 |
This bet has been easy money for us so far this year and that should continue this week. Neither team has scored a return touchdown this year and they combined for one last season. Neither defense has a TD this year, either, and they combined for a single defensive score in 2017.
Helping the no side here: Indy’s standout rookie edge rusher, Darius Leonard (4.0 sacks), is questionable with an ankle injury. The Pats have only surrendered six sacks on the year and it’s doubtful that Brady will be pressured into mistakes or strip-sacked.
The biggest threat to score is likely the Patriot defense. But don’t expect Andrew Luck to throw 62 passes like he did last week. On the road with an understaffed receiving corps, the Colts are going to at least try to establish the run.
Prop #2: Patriots to Score the Longest Field Goal
| Which team will score the longest field goal? | Odds |
|---|---|
| COLTS | +120 |
| PATRIOTS | -140 |
Stephen Gostkowski missed his only 50-yard attempt this year, but was 4/4 from over 50 last year and is a combined 18/22 from 40-49 yards the last two-plus seasons. In theory, he has range for days.
Adam Vinatieri is an ageless wonder for Indianapolis, but he’s also on the injury report with a groin issue. He’s likely to play; he’s not likely to attempt much from 45-plus. Given the problems Indy may have even getting into field-goal range without Hilton, Doyle, and Mack, -140 is good value on Gostkowski.
Prop #3: James White to Score the First TD
| Who will score the first TD of the game? | Odds |
|---|---|
| James White | +800 |
Pass-catching back James White leads the Patriots in TDs with four (one rushing; three receiving). I expect New England to use White similar to the way Washington used Chris Thompson against the Colts in Week 2, when the satellite back racked up 13 receptions and 92 yards.
White (21 rushing attempts, 110 yards) is also likely to get a few carries. Given that he’s never fumbled in his five-year career, Bill Belichick may trust him more than Sony Michel in the red zone, though the rookie (who’s the favorite at +600 to score the first TD) busted out for 112 yards and a major in last week’s rout of Miami.
Sascha was a hockey player in his youth, a lawyer in his capricious mid-20s, and has been with SBD since 2014. He specializes in football, basketball, politics, baseball, and hockey.
