- The Minnesota Vikings are 2.5 point home favorites over the New England Patriots in the Week 12 TNF game and they’re also getting strong support in the NFL public betting splits
- There are 75% of spread bets backing the Vikings to cover
- Check out all the NFL public betting and money percentages for the Patriots vs Vikings Thursday Night Football game in the following story
During the Bill Belichick era, the New England Patriots (6-4, 6-3-1 ATS) have owned the Minnesota Vikings (8-2, 4-5-1 ATS), but the NFL public betting splits are backing ownership to be changing hands during the Week 12 TNF game between the two teams.
With Belichick as head coach, the Patriots are 5-1 straight up and 4-2 against the spread when facing the Vikings. New England was a SU winner of the past five games and are 4-1 ATS.
At Minnesota under Belichick, New England is 2-0 SU and ATS, with 30-7 and 31-7 victories. Yet it’s Minnesota that is set as a 2.5-point home favorite in the NFL odds over the Patriots. And the public is solidly supporting the Vikings in both the point spread and moneyline splits.
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The Patriots vs Vikings public betting trends are also prominently backing the under on the total of 42.5 point as of early Thursday afternoon. Splits on both the handle and bets are going steadily with the over at 71% and 59%, respectively.
The game is airing exclusively on Amazon Prime as part of a new partnership for Thursday Night Football with Amazon.
Spread Bettors Going With Vikings, Against History
The Vikings were the 3-point road chalk in the NFL Week 12 opening line for this game. The line has since shortened a half-point.
Ignoring the trends in this series, the public spread splits are leaning strongly toward the Vikings. Minnesota is drawing 65% of spread handle and 75% of spread bets.
New England is 6-3-1 against the spread this season, good for a 66.7% success rate. Only five NFL teams are better ATS during the 2022 campaign. On the road, the Patriots are 2-1 ATS in their last three games. New England is 6-1 ATS over the past seven games.
Minnesota is 4-5-1 ATS. Only four NFL teams have won fewer games ATS this season. At home, the Vikings are 2-3 ATS. As a home favorite, they are 2-2 ATS. Vikings quarterback Kirk Cousins is 11-17 ATS in prime time games.
The Vikings are 1-3 ATS in their last four home games. But they are 3-1-1 ATS over their past five games and 5-0 ATS in their last five games against AFC opponents. Of course, none of those teams were the Patriots.
Patriots Have Been Going Low
Going with the under in the Patriots vs Vikings picks makes perfect sense from a New England point of view. In their last two games, the Patriots have allowed a solitary field goal to each of their opponents.
On the other hand, New England has scored just six touchdowns in the last four games. That averages out to 1.5 TDs per game. The Patriots have never scored more than two TDs in any of those four games. Their offense has accounted for just four of the trips to the end zone.
The Patriots held the Colts to three points and got Frank Reich fired. The Patriots held the Jets to three points and got Zach Wilson benched. Who from the Vikings will be losing their job after Thursday night?
— ProFootballTalk (@ProFootballTalk) November 23, 2022
Both the Vikings (5-5) and Patriots (4-6) are in the middle of the pack when it comes to the over/under. Minnesota is 3-2 as a home team, while New England is 2-3 as an away team.
Four of New England’s last six games went under and 12 of the Patriots’ last 18 road games also hit on the under. As well, six of the past seven Patriots vs Vikings games went under. As for Minnesota, 12 of the past 18 Vikings games have gone over.
Straight Up, Vikings Are a Dominant Team
Leading the NFC North at 8-2, the Vikings are set as the -6000 odds-on chalk to win the division in the NFL Divisional odds. New England is given a +100 betting line to make it in the NFL playoff odds.
Only the 9-1 Philadelphia Eagles, who beat the Vikings head-to-head in Week 2, show a better SU record than Minnesota among the 32 NFL teams.
If the Vikings take care of business against the Patriots, they'll have a 9-2 or better record thru 11 games for the 10th in franchise history — 1969, 1970, 1971, 1973, 1975, 1998, 2000, 2009, and 2017.
— Dustin Baker (@DustBaker) November 22, 2022
Public moneyline splits are giving the Vikings a 68% edge in handle and a 69% advantage in bets.
The Vikings are 6-2 SU on Thanksgiving. Despite his overall prime time woes (10-18 SU), Cousins is actually 3-4 SU on TNF.
New England is 3-0 SU over the club’s past three road games.