- The Minnesota Vikings are 2.5-point home favorites over the New England Patriots in their NFL Week 12 TNF game
- Vikings quarterback Kirk Cousins is 10-18 straight up in prime time games and 3-4 SU in Thursday night games
- New England is 2-1 against the spread as a road underdog this season
The New England Patriots (6-4, 6-3-1 ATS) have the Minnesota Vikings (8-2, 4-5-1 ATS) right where they want them. Playing at night.
The night lights are to Vikings quarterback Kirk Cousins what sunlight is to vampires. It steals his soul, and his ability to find open receivers downfield. Since he became a full-time NFL starting QB in 2015, Cousins has lost more prime time games (16) than any other QB.
The Patriots are coming to Minnesota playing their best football of the season. They’re 3-0 SU and against the spread in their last three games. They’ve allowed six points total in the past two games.
Still, it’s the Vikings who are set as 2.5-point home favorites in the Thanksgiving edition of TNF. In the last five meetings between the two teams, New England is 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS.
Patriots vs Vikings Odds
|New England Patriots||+2.5 (-110)||O 42.5 (-110)||+118|
|Minnesota Vikings||-2.5 (-110)||U 42.5 (-110)||-140|
Odds as of November 23 at Caesars Sportsbook. See the available Caesars Sportsbook promo code for the NFL here
The Vikings are 6-2 SU on Thanksgiving. New England is 2-1 SU and 3-0 ATS in the club’s past three road games.
Kickoff at US Bank Stadium is set for 8:15 pm ET on Thursday, November 24. The weather forecast is calling for clear skies, 6 mph wind and a temperature of 37 degrees – not that it will matter inside the stadium’s climate-controlled dome.
The game is airing exclusively on Amazon Prime as part of a new partnership for Thursday Night Football with Amazon.
New England vs Minnesota NFL Betting Trends
Despite the solid success posted by the Patriots in this series, the NFL public betting trends are leaning in the other direction as of Wednesday evening. It’s the Vikings who are drawing 64% of handle and 75% of bets in the public spread split. As for the moneyline, 69% of public handle and 70 of bets are going with Minnesota.
The public split on the total is with the under. It’s getting 71% of handle and 58% of bets. New England’s defense hasn’t allowed a touchdown in the last two games.
The opening NFL Week 12 lines are displaying that the point spread on this game has gone down one-half point. The opening line was Minnesota -3. The total has remained steady at 42.5 points.
Despite their 8-2 record, the Vikings are just the co-seventh betting choice in the Super Bowl odds at +1800. New England is a +1400 third pick to win the AFC East in the NFL division odds.
Cousins Finishes Second at Night
With a MNF loss to the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 2, Vikings QB Cousins dropped to 10-18 SU in prime time games during his NFL career and 11-17 ATS. On the surface, his TNF numbers seem to be a little better. He’s 3-4 SU in Thursday prime time games.
Primetime Kirk Cousins vs. Mac Jones on Thanksgiving night?! Yuck!
— Commissioner Cheah (@StevenCheah) November 21, 2022
However, dig into his stats during TNF games and it doesn’t paint a pretty picture. In eight career TNF games, Cousins has thrown 11 interceptions. This season, the Patriots are fourth in the NFL with 11 picks.
Patriots Own Vikings Under Belichick
Like that uncle who won’t leave as long as there’s still bourbon in the bottle, Patriots head coach Bill Belichick is the last person that Minnesota wanted to have over as a visitor on Thanksgiving. In his last four games against the Vikings, Belichick is 4-0 SU and ATS.
The Vikings are 1-5 all-time vs a Bill Belichick led Patriot team and have lost 5 in a row
They've lost those games by an average of 15.6 points
The last time the Vikings beat him was 22 years ago (9/17/00) pic.twitter.com/uW8fupkoJG
— Luke Inman (@Luke_Spinman) November 21, 2022
The average margin of victory in those four games was 17.75 points per game. In the last two games played at Minnesota, New England won 31-7 and 30-7.
Judon Could Have Field Day Against Minnesota
Patriots edge Matthew Judon is the +550 second betting choice in the NFL DPOY odds. He’s recorded an NFL-leading 13 sacks, a career-high. In the past four games, Judon has counted seven sacks, nine QB hits and six tackles for losses.
The Vikings will be forced to deal with Judon minus starting LT Christian Darrisaw, who’s out with a concussion. On defense, LDE Dalvin Tomlinson (calf) and SLB Za’Darius Smith (knee) are questionable for Minnesota.
Patriots LG Isaiah Wynn (foot) is out. C David Andrews (thigh), RT Yodny Cajuste (calf) and WR DeVante Parker (knee) are questionable.
Patriots vs Vikings Prediction
New England is 2-1 ATS on the road this season. The Patriots are 2-0 SU and ATS as a road underdog at Minnesota since 2000. This season, New England is 6-1 ATS over the past seven games.
The Vikings are 1-3 ATS in their last four home games. But they are 3-1-1 ATS over their past five games, and 5-0 ATS in their last five games against AFC East opponents – none of whom were the Patriots.
- Pick: New England Patriots +2.5 (-110)
- TNF record (0-0 ML, 4-6 ATS, 1-0 O/U)