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Raiders Super Bowl Odds Unchanged After Signing of Jimmy Garoppolo; 13-1 to Win AFC West

Robert Duff

by Robert Duff in NFL Football

Updated Mar 14, 2023 · 4:31 PM PDT

Jimmy Garoppolo holding footballs
Nov 21, 2022; Mexico City, MEXICO; San Francisco 49ers quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo (10) celebrates on the field following his team’s 38-10 victory against the Arizona Cardinals at Estadio Azteca. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
  • Adding QB Jimmy Garoppolo via free agency isn’t moving the needle for the Las Vegas Raiders in terms of their Super Bowl odds
  • The Raiders remain at +4000, the same chance they were given of winning the Super Bowl prior to signing Garoppolo
  • On Tuesday Las Vegas was trading All-Pro tight end Darren Waller to the New York Giants

Jimmy Garoppolo has already taken a team to the Super Bowl. Oddsmakers aren’t very confident in his ability to get it done again.

Garoppolo was under center for the San Francisco 49ers when they went to their most recent Super Bowl game in 2019. On Monday, the Las Vegas Raiders were signing Garoppolo as a free agent. Prior to doing so, the Raiders were +4000 to win next season’s Super Bowl.

Today, with Garoppolo’s signature on a contract, the Raiders are still at +4000 in the 2023 Super Bowl odds.

2023 Super Bowl Odds

Team Odds
Kansas City Chiefs +600
San Francisco 49ers +700
Buffalo Bills +800
Philadelphia Eagles +850
Cincinnati Bengals +1000
New York Jets +1500
Dallas Cowboys +1800
Los Angeles Chargers +2200
Jacksonville Jaguars +2500
Miami Dolphins +3000
New Orleans Saints +3000
Detroit Lions +3000
Baltimore Ravens +3000
Los Angeles Rams +3500
Green Bay Packers +4000
Cleveland Browns +4000
Denver Broncos +4000
Las Vegas Raiders +4000
Minnesota Vikings +4000
New York Giants +4000
Seattle Seahawks +6000
Pittsburgh Steelers +6000
Chicago Bears +6000
New England Patriots +7000
Atlanta Falcons +7000
Carolina Panthers +7000
Tennessee Titans +8000
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +8000
Washington Commanders +8000
Indianapolis Colts +15000
Arizona Cardinals +15000
Houston Texans +20000

The Raiders are the 13th betting choice to win the AFC Championship Game, also at +4000 in the conference odds. As far as their chances of winning an AFC West title, oddsmakers are setting Las Vegas as the fourth betting option at a distant +1300 in the NFL divisional odds.

It’s been a long dry spell for the Raiders in terms of NFL postseason success. Since losing the 2002 Super Bowl to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, they’ve only qualified for the playoffs. Both times it was an AFC Wild Card team and on each occasion, they made a rapid exit.


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Raiders In State of Flux

Las Vegas is coming off a 6-11 campaign. That’s the fourth non-winning season for the Raiders through the last five and 17th over the past 19 years.

Opting to tie the can to QB Derek Carr, the Raiders announced they were moving on from him after nine seasons. Carr was benched for the final two games of the 2022 campaign.

On Tuesday, Las Vegas made another move and this one is also a puzzling development. The Raiders were trading All-Pro tight end to the New York Giants. The latest news didn’t sit well with NFL rushing leader Josh Jacobs. He took to social media and left no doubt as to his feeling about what’s going on with the team.

Raiders Must Give Garoppolo a Game to Manage

Garoppolo is what’s known in football circles as a QB who is a game manager. He isn’t going to create magic like Patrick Mahomes, or launch bombs like Josh Allen.

That being the case, he needs a game to manage. During his two best seasons in San Francisco, Garoppolo was backed by a powerful run game. In 2021 as they went to the NFC Championship Game, the 49ers were seventh in NFL rushing (2166 yards). They were 12th in passing yardage (4221) and 14th in TD passes (26).


Two years earlier, as the Niners were going to the Super Bowl, Garoppolo was 13th in passing yards (3792) and 10th in TD passes (28). But San Francisco was the NFL’s #2 rushing team (2,305).

That’s why it’s vital that the Raiders maintain Jacobs in the fold. The man who rambled for a league-league 1,653 yards on the ground could become a free agent. However, word is that the Raiders will put the franchise tag on Jacobs if they can’t reach agreement on a new contract by Tuesday.

Oddsmakers See Raiders As Worse Than Broncos

Was there a bigger train wreck in the NFL last season than the Denver Broncos? Adding QB Russell Wilson, given relatively short Super Bowl odds, the Broncos crashed and burned, finishing 5-12.

This season, though, oddsmakers are again liking the Broncos to be much improved under their new coach, Super Bowl winner Sean Payton. The addition of Garoppolo isn’t impressing those who set the betting odds much, however.

2023 AFC West Odds

Team Odds
Kansas City Chiefs -130
Los Angeles Chargers +350
Denver Broncos +350
Las Vegas Raiders +1300

In the AFC West, the Raiders are the fourth betting choice (+1300), the only team with a betting line above +1000. Denver and the LA Chargers are both at +350. The Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs are the -130 chalk.

On paper, Garoppolo looks like a winner. He’s 40-17 in the NFL, after all. But he’s also proven to be injury prone and his history is one of taking the helm of good teams and being asked to do less. Here’s an astonishing Garoppolo stat – he’s 11-2 in games in which he doesn’t throw a TD pass.

The Raiders traditionally ask their QBs to do more. That doesn’t bode well for this marriage.

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