Rams vs Seahawks Week 5 Thursday Night Football Props: Lockett In
- Week 5 kicks off with Rams and Seahawks on Thursday Night Football
- Our TNF props were 3-0 last week for +2.8 units (+1.1 units for the season)
- Tyler Lockett should feast on the Rams secondary
Our Thursday Night Football props were a perfect 3-0 last week to move us into the black for the first time all season. This week, the Thursday Night lights shine on the NFC West where Tyler Lockett is primed to take advantage of a shaky Rams defense.
Prop #1: Tyler Lockett Over/Under 77.5 Receiving Yards
| Receiving Yards | Odds |
|---|---|
| Over 77.5 | -113 |
| Under 77.5 | -113 |
*All odds taken 10/3/19
Lockett runs 73% of his routes from the slot where LA was just torched by Chris Godwin for 12 catches, 172 yards and two touchdowns. Lockett owns a team high 25% target share this season and has seen 30 passes thrown his way in the last three weeks alone.
Play-action to Tyler Lockett is such a cheat code. Great throw by Russell Wilson. #Seahawkspic.twitter.com/RFHtv59fE1
— Samuel Gold (@SamuelRGold) September 29, 2019
Acting as Seattle’s number two a season ago, he lit up the Rams for 165 yards and two touchdowns in two games and should feast on a defense that features two inside corners with Pro Football Focus grades of 63.5 and 30.1.
Pick: Lockett Over 77.5 receiving yards (-113)
Risk: 1 unit to win 0.88 units
Prop #2: Todd Gurley Over/Under 21.5 Receiving Yards
| Receiving Yards | Odds |
|---|---|
| Over 21.5 | -113 |
| Under 21.5 | -113 |
After a reduced workload over the first three weeks, Todd Gurley played a season high 75% of LA’s offensive snaps in Week 4. He saw only five carries, but ran 38 pass routes and saw 11 targets which he converted into seven catches and 54 yards. Now he faces a Seahawks defense that excels at stopping the run but has bled yards to opposing running backs through the air.
Seattle has allowed 265 receiving yards to running backs this season and coughed up eight catches and 99 yards to David Johnson in Week 4.
Gurley exceeded 21.5 receiving yards in 12 of his 14 starts a season ago, including both matchups against the Seahawks. The Rams will certainly try to take advantage of this mismatch early and often.
Pick: Gurley Over 21.5 receiving yards (-113)
Risk: 2 units to win 1.76 units
Prop #3: Brandin Cooks Over/Under 4.5 Receptions
| Receptions | Odds |
|---|---|
| Over 4.5 | -113 |
| Under 4.5 | -113 |
While most people flock to bet Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods after their massive games in Week 4, Brandin Cooks quietly draws easily the best matchup of any LA receiver on Thursday.
RIGHT. OUT. OF. THE. SKY. ?@jaredgoff16 x @brandincooks pic.twitter.com/1EbUAD76nG
— Los Angeles Rams (@RamsNFL) September 15, 2019
Cooks will run the majority of his routes against Tre Flowers who has earned a pitiful 48.4 coverage grade from PFF this season. He’s allowed opposing receivers to haul in 70.4% of the passes thrown his way and should struggle to keep pace with Cooks’ 4.33 speed. The Rams big play threat caught 10 passes in his lone game against Seattle last season and should get plenty of opportunity to exceed this total.
Pick: Cooks Over 4.5 receptions (-113)
Risk: 1 unit to win 0.88 units
As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
