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Rams vs Seahawks Week 5 Thursday Night Football Props: Lockett In

Chris Amberley

by Chris Amberley in NFL Football

Oct 3, 2019 · 6:02 AM PDT

Seattle Seahawks
Tyler Lockett and the Seahawks host the Rams on Thursday Night Football. Photo from @rotoworld. (Twitter.)
  • Week 5 kicks off with Rams and Seahawks on Thursday Night Football
  • Our TNF props were 3-0 last week for +2.8 units (+1.1 units for the season)
  • Tyler Lockett should feast on the Rams secondary

Our Thursday Night Football props were a perfect 3-0 last week to move us into the black for the first time all season. This week, the Thursday Night lights shine on the NFC West where Tyler Lockett is primed to take advantage of a shaky Rams defense.

Prop #1: Tyler Lockett Over/Under 77.5 Receiving Yards

Receiving Yards Odds
Over 77.5 -113
Under 77.5 -113

*All odds taken 10/3/19

Lockett runs 73% of his routes from the slot where LA was just torched by Chris Godwin for 12 catches, 172 yards and two touchdowns. Lockett owns a team high 25% target share this season and has seen 30 passes thrown his way in the last three weeks alone.

Acting as Seattle’s number two a season ago, he lit up the Rams for 165 yards and two touchdowns in two games and should feast on a defense that features two inside corners with Pro Football Focus grades of 63.5 and 30.1.

Pick: Lockett Over 77.5 receiving yards (-113)

Risk: 1 unit to win 0.88 units

Prop #2: Todd Gurley Over/Under 21.5 Receiving Yards

Receiving Yards Odds
Over 21.5 -113
Under 21.5 -113

After a reduced workload over the first three weeks, Todd Gurley played a season high 75% of LA’s offensive snaps in Week 4. He saw only five carries, but ran 38 pass routes and saw 11 targets which he converted into seven catches and 54 yards. Now he faces a Seahawks defense that excels at stopping the run but has bled yards to opposing running backs through the air.

Seattle has allowed 265 receiving yards to running backs this season and coughed up eight catches and 99 yards to David Johnson in Week 4.

Gurley exceeded 21.5 receiving yards in 12 of his 14 starts a season ago, including both matchups against the Seahawks. The Rams will certainly try to take advantage of this mismatch early and often.

Pick: Gurley Over 21.5 receiving yards (-113)

Risk: 2 units to win 1.76 units

Prop #3: Brandin Cooks Over/Under 4.5 Receptions

Receptions Odds
Over 4.5 -113
Under 4.5 -113

While most people flock to bet Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods after their massive games in Week 4, Brandin Cooks quietly draws easily the best matchup of any LA receiver on Thursday.

Cooks will run the majority of his routes against Tre Flowers who has earned a pitiful 48.4 coverage grade from PFF this season. He’s allowed opposing receivers to haul in 70.4% of the passes thrown his way and should struggle to keep pace with Cooks’ 4.33 speed. The Rams big play threat caught 10 passes in his lone game against Seattle last season and should get plenty of opportunity to exceed this total.

Pick: Cooks Over 4.5 receptions (-113)

Risk: 1 unit to win 0.88 units

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