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Sony Michel Grabbing Attention in NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Odds

Bryan Thiel

by Bryan Thiel in NFL Football

Updated Jan 3, 2023 · 4:42 AM PST

Sony Michel of the Georgia Bulldogs running with the ball
Sony Michel (pictured) and former Georgia teammate Todd Gurley will be on opposite sides in Super Bowl 53, and if their past relationship is mentioned on the broadcast, it could win you money. Photo by David Rosenblum/Icon Sportswire.
  • The Patriots hadn’t selected a running back in the first round since 2006 before taking Michel 31st overall
  • Michel has seen the biggest movement in his average odds for Offensive Rookie of the Year, jumping from +2300 to +1400
  • Alvin Kamara won OROY in 2017 after playing in just 44.9% of offensive snaps

Even when it’s not football season, it’s still “football season”.

Though we haven’t had any real football played since February 4th, no major player movement since April 28th, and have yet to see any of these new rookies in any sort of real practice scenario, we were treated to rookie minicamps from May 11-14.

The result is us sitting here discussing a 2018 draftee’s Offensive Rookie of the Year odds movement. The specific case is Sony Michel of the New England Patriots. (You can see him in the Top 10 Contenders.)

The former Bulldog was the third running back off the board, 31st overall. The New York Giants took Saquon Barkley second overall, while the Seattle Seahawks went with Raashad Penny four picks before Michel came off the board.

While Barkley was a consensus top four pick, and in consideration at no. 1 in many mock drafts, Michel was always a wildcard. Some had him off the board in the early 20s, while others had him falling to the second-round. But when his name was called by the New England Patriots, it certainly grabbed the league’s attention.

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Why is Michel Getting This Attention?

The Patriots typically don’t invest their draft stock heavily in running backs. They choose to spend their capital in “more important positions” and scour the scrap heap for an RB in the middle/late rounds – or acquire a back through other avenues.

Dion Lewis was signed to a future/reserve contract in 2015, after being cut by both the Browns and Colts in the previous two seasons. LeGarrette Blount was acquired for a seventh round pick. Even New England stalwart Kevin Faulk was nabbed with a second-round pick.

Bill Belichick has only invested a first-round pick in [a running back] one other time, and it didn’t exactly go well.

That’s what made the selection of Michel so surprising. Bill Belichick has only invested a first-round pick in the position one other time, and it didn’t exactly go well. (See Laurence Maroney.) For The Hoodie to go with a skill position in the first round is…unheard of.

Mike Mayock had Michel ranked as the 32nd best prospect and the third-best running back. CBS had him at 53rd overall, and fifth-best among his position. The talent is there. And his odds to win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year prove that.

NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Odds

Saquon Barkley is still the heavy favorite to win 2018 OROY honors with +140 average odds. And Baker Mayfield (+400), Josh Rosen (+900), Josh Allen (+930) and Rashaad Penny (+1300) round out the top five in our average odds.

But the biggest story is Sony Michel’s huge climb up the board. Michel opened on May 1st with +2300 average odds, and just checked in on May 16th at +1400.

One betting site in particular must have really liked what they saw from the Georgia product during rookie minicamps:

Player Team Draft Position 2018 Offensive Rookie of the Year Odds (05/11) 2018 Offensive Rookie of the Year Odds (05/16)
Saquon Barkley NYG 2nd +150 +140
Baker Mayfield CLE 1st +300 +400
Josh Allen BUF 7th +800 +900
Josh Rosen ARI 10th +800 +900
Sony Michel NE 31st +2500 +1000

Is Michel a Smart Bet for 2018 NFL OROY?

The biggest hurdle Michel will have to overcome is his own crowded depth chart. While he’s a lock for the roster, and some snaps, New England has been notorious for shuffling the backfield touches on a weekly basis. And the 2018 Patriot backfield seems even more crowded than usual.

James White, Rex Burkhead, Mike Gillislee, Brandon Bolden, and the newly signed Jeremy Hill will all be vying for a spot on the roster and some time on the field come September.

Michel cannot be trusted to see many targets out of the backfield with White there. The 26-year-old is an institution in New England and Tom Brady trusts him more than some receivers. And Burkehead serves the role of utility man, often making it difficult for Belichick to remove him from the field once he does get a chance.

But there is potential for Michel to grab a lot of the early-down work and some goal-line carries. But how many touches will that lead to?

The last time a back was on the field for over 50% of the Patriots’ snaps was Shane Vereen in 2014.

Last year Dion Lewis led the backfield playing 35.5% of the snaps. The year before it was Blount at 47%. The last time a back was on the field for over 50% of the Patriots’ snaps was Shane Vereen in 2014.

It’s hard for any back to carve out a sizable role in Josh McDaniel’s offense, let alone a rookie.  If Michel is going to make an impact in his first year, he’ll have to hold onto the ball better than he did in college – fumbled the ball once every 54.6 touches at Georgia.

Who is the Best Bet for 2018 NFL OROY?

The biggest challenge for Michel’s OROY prospects will be how much Barkley and Penny play. The former is slated to be a workhorse in New York, while the latter could see plenty of touches in Seattle.

The good news for Michel bettors is Alvin Kamara won the OROY last year playing in just 44.9% of snaps for New Orleans. But he also averaged 6.1 yards per carry, 7.7 yards per touch and totaled 1,554 yards from scrimmage with 13 TDs. Those are extremely lofty expectations.

If you got on the former Bulldog back on May 1st, you’re laughing right now. But I wouldn’t advise betting him at his current odds. Taking a running back is certainly the smartest bet at this point, but I’d look to someone like Rashaad Penny who offers a bit more value at +1400.


Keep up to date with our 2018 Offensive Rookie of the Year Odds Tracker. And if you’re looking to bet on more player awards, check out our 2018 NFL MVP Odds Tracker.

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