Pittsburgh Steelers vs New England Patriots Picks, Props to Bet & Closing Odds (Week 3)

• The Pittsburgh Steelers travel to Foxborough to face the New England Patriots in a crucial early-season contest on Sep. 21
• The visiting Steelers are slight 1.5-point favorites, but the Pats have covered the last three head-to-head
• See my favorite Steelers vs Patriots picks and player props to bet, plus the closing odds

Playoff implications already about in Week 3 when the Pittsburgh Steelers (1-1) travel to Foxborough to face the New England Patriots (1-1) at Gillette Stadium at 1:00 pm ET on CBS. The weather forecast calls for a clear day with temperatures around 58°F and minimal wind, providing relatively ideal conditions for football.

Below, I will break down the key matchups and set out my favorite Steelers vs Patriots picks and player props to target. At the bottom of the article, find up-to-the-minute Steelers vs Patriots odds and betting lines.

Pittsburgh Steelers vs New England Patriots Picks & Prediction

• Moneyline pick: New England (+105) at bet365
• Game-total pick: Over 44.5 (-110)

This matchup is a fascinating clash of conflicting trends and styles. The Steelers boast an explosive passing attack led by Aaron Rodgers, but their inability to run the football (62.5 yards per game) has made them predictable so far. Their defense has been a major disappointment, getting gashed on the ground and struggling to get off the field on third down.

The Patriots, meanwhile, have been the polar opposite. Their offense under Drake Maye has been methodical, and their defense has been elite against the run (58.5 yards allowed per game) but vulnerable through the air.

While the Patriots have been abysmal at home recently, going 3-10-1 ATS in their last 14 games at Gillette Stadium, they have owned this rivalry, winning and covering the spread in the last three meetings with the Steelers.

The key to this game will be New England’s ability to exploit Pittsburgh’s biggest weakness: run defense. If the Patriots can establish Rhamondre Stevenson and control the clock, they can keep Rodgers off the field and protect their own vulnerable secondary.

Situational trends heavily favor a high-scoring affair. The over has hit in seven of the Patriots’ last eight games as an underdog and in six of their last seven home games. Furthermore, the over is a perfect 4-0 in the Steelers’ last four games as road favorites. While the head-to-head trend leans under, the current form of these two defenses suggests points will be scored.

Pittsburgh’s defense is allowing 31.5 points per game, and New England’s secondary is ripe for the picking.

I expect the Patriots to do just enough on the ground to win outright in a contest that sails over the total.

PIT Steelers vs NE Patriots Player Props

NFL player props as of September 21 at BetMGM.

Aaron Rodgers’ passing line is set at 235.5 yards, a number he has surpassed in one of two games this season. The Patriots’ defense is allowing 315 passing yards per game, making the over an attractive play. Drake Maye’s line of 228.5 is slightly below his season average of 258.5 yards per game. The Steelers’ pass defense allows 245 yards per game, suggesting Maye has a good chance to hit his over, especially if the Patriots are forced to play from behind.

Rhamondre Stevenson’s rushing prop of 43.5 yards is very appealing against a Steelers defense that is giving up nearly 150 yards on the ground per game. For Pittsburgh, Jaylen Warren faces a much tougher test against a Patriots run defense allowing just 58.5 yards per game.

In the receiving game, DK Metcalf’s line of 57.5 yards is modest for a player of his caliber, particularly against a banged-up Patriots secondary that has struggled to contain top receivers.

Best Player Prop Picks:

• Stevenson over 43.5 rushing yards (-115) at BetMGM
• Warren under 47.5 rushing yards (-115) at BetMGM

Steelers vs Patriots Closing Odds

The Steelers remain 1.5-point road favorites an hour and a half from kickoff, which is the same as the opening NFL Week 3 odds. The New England moneyline has grown slightly from -105 to +105. The game total remains 44.5 at most sportsbooks, though bet365 has raised it a point to 45.5.

The Week 3 NFL public betting trends like the Steelers to win but the Pats to cover, despite the miniscule point spread. Pittsburgh is getting 66% of moneyline handle on 69% of ML tickets. New England is getting 52% of ATS handle on 83% of ATS wagers.

Bookmark SBD’s NFL odds page to see the latest lines for every game this season.