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Super Bowl 52 Eagles vs Patriots Odds: Best Moneyline, ATS, Totals

Tom Brady warming up
Tom Brady is preparing to make his eighth career Super Bowl start. Photo by Keith Allison (Flickr) [CC License]
  • Which sportsbook is offering the most favorable moneyline, against-the-spread odds, and game total for both the Patriots and Eagles in Super Bowl 52?
  • Will Tom Brady win his sixth Super Bowl ring?
  • Can the Eagles hoist the franchise’s first Lombardi Trophy?

For the second straight year, and third time in the last four, the New England Patriots are preparing for a Super Bowl. Their opponent for Super Bowl 52, the Philadelphia Eagles, are making their first appearance in the big game since the 2004-05 season, when (not so) coincidentally, they lost to the Patriots.

“Here is your full betting preview, including expert advice on the moneyline, the spread, and the game total”

Super Bowl 52 is scheduled to kickoff on Sunday, February 4th, at 6:30 PM ET. Here is your full betting preview, including expert advice on the moneyline, the spread, and the game total, as well as which online betting site has the best odds for each wager. Since it’s still so early, you’ll notice that not all the usual information is included, below. Not to worry, we will fill in the blanks as the information becomes available.

Team Injury Reports

There are no injuries to report for either side. The Eagles and Patriots’ 53-man rosters are both fully healthy and ready to go. Recent developments include:

  • Rob Gronkowski cleared concussion protocol
  • Tom Brady will play through his hand injury, as he did in the AFC Championship Game
  • Mike Gillislee will not be held out due to his knee injury
  • Nick Foles’ sore ribs will not prevent him from playing

Team Stats

Eagles
VS
Patriots
15-3 (1st seed) Record 15-3 (1st seed)
32:44 (1st) Average Time of Possession 30:25 (11th)
+12 (5th) Total Turnover Differential +5 (12th)
57.8 (17th) Penalty Yards Per Game 49 (5th)
24.0% (6th) Total Team DVOA 24.3% (5th)
22.4% (7th) Weighted Team DVOA 35.5% (1st)
-2.1% (21st) Weighted Special Teams DVOA 7.7% (2nd)

*Stats include playoff games; DVOA includes the Conference Championships.

Eagles Offense vs Patriots Defense

Eagles
VS
Patriots
28.6 (3rd) Points Per Game 18.5 (5th)
265.8 (7th) Total Yards Per Game 366 (29th)
10.0% (8th) Offense/Defense DVOA 10.9% (31st)
233.6 (14th) Passing Yards Per Game 251.3 (30th)
6.2 (14th) Yards Per Pass Attempt 6.4 (20th)
38 (1st) Total Passing Touchdowns 24 (18th)
36 (16th) Total Sacks 42 (7th)
9 (6th) Total Interceptions 12 (18th)
33.5% (5th) Passing DVOA 16.8% (21st)
132.2 (3rd) Rushing Yards Per Game 114.8 (20th)
4.5 (4th) Yards Per Rush Attempt 4.7 (31st)
9 (24th) Total Rushing Touchdowns 6 (2nd)
11 (22nd) Total Fumbles Lost/Recovered 6 (23rd)
-6.2% (17th) Total Passing Touchdowns 2.6% (30th)

*2017 regular season stats.

Eagles Offense vs Eagles Defense

Eagles
VS
Patriots

 

28.6 (2nd) Points Per Game 18.4 (4th)
394.2 (1st) Total Yards Per Game 306.5 (4th)
27.3% (1st) Offense/Defense DVOA -12.6% (5th)
276.1 (2nd) Passing Yards Per Game 227.3 (17th)
7.1 (5th) Yards Per Pass Attempt 5.7 (7th)
32 (3rd) Total Passing Touchdowns 24 (18th)
35 (18th) Total Sacks 38 (15th)
8 (2nd) Total Interceptions 19 (4th)
47.1% (1st) Passing DVOA -7.3% (7th)
118.1 (10th) Rushing Yards Per Game 79.2 (1st)
4.2 (12th) Yards Per Rush Attempt 3.8 (6th)
16 (6th) Total Rushing Touchdowns 7 (3rd)
4 (2nd) Total Fumbles Lost/Recovered 12 (4th)
10.4% (3rd) Total Passing Touchdowns -21.6% (3rd)

*2017 regular season stats.

Game Preview

I think the saying goes: another year, another Patriots Super Bowl appearance. Or at least it should at this point. In the 16 full seasons Bill Belichick and Tom Brady have spent together – which excludes the 2008 season, when Brady tore his ACL in Week 1 – the Patriots have made it to the Super Bowl eight times. Put another way, New England has made it to the Super Bowl 50% of the time in the Brady/Belichick era. If that doesn’t impress you, then you must not realize the difficulties of sustaining success in a league with a hard salary cap, or you just watch too much NBA.

Brady and Belichick lead quarterbacks and coaches, respectively, in both Super Bowl appearances and Super Bowl wins.

The closest QB to Brady in Super Bowl starts is John Elway with five, while Terry Bradshaw and Joe Montana are tied for second in wins with four each. For coaches, Don Shula is the closest to Belichick in Super Bowl appearances as a head coach with six, and Chuck Noll’s four wins are second to Belichick’s five.

Bill Belichick at the White House
Bill Belichick speaking at the White House during the New England Patriots’ post-Super Bowl 51 visit. Photo: Public Domain.

Meanwhile, Doug Pederson and Nick Foles have combined for zero Super Bowl appearances. The former is only in his second year as a head coach, while Foles has started just 42 career games. But experience doesn’t always win out.

The Eagles will counter New England’s experience with their strength in the trenches.

Fletcher Cox anchors a defensive line that held opponents to a league-low 79.2 rushing yards per game.

Cox has recorded 6.5 sacks this season, and owns the highest run-stop-percentage among interior defenders in the playoffs, per ProFootballFocus. The three-time Pro Bowler has consistently worked through double-teams, allowing Philadelphia’s edge rushers to see plenty of one-on-one opportunities. The result was 9.5 regular-season sacks for Brandon Graham, and a combined 10.0 for Chris Long and rookie Derek Barnett.

The Eagles’ offensive line also deserves a ton of credit for the team’s Super Bowl run. In spite of losing nine-time Pro Bowl LT Jason Peters, Philadelphia was still awarded PFF’s Offensive Line of the Year honors. Halapoulivaati Vaitai has not been great trying to fill Peters’ shoes, but Doug Pederson has done a great job scheming to give his left tackle some help against elite edge rushers.

“Anchored by PFF’s highest-graded center in the league, Jason Kelce, the Eagles line has paved the way for their backs to gain 4.5 yards per carry, which is fourth in the NFL.”

Fletcher Cox returning a fumble for a TD
Per PFF, Fletcher Cox was the second-best interior defender in the NFL this season, only trailing Aaron Donald. Photo by Keith Allison (Flickr) [CC License].

In order for Philadelphia to slow down Tom Brady and a New England offense that ranked first in total yards, they’ll need a big effort from Fletcher Cox and their defensive line, along with some great play in the secondary.

Slot corner Patrick Robinson was the fourth-graded CB, per PFF, and he’ll have to play that way in a matchup with Danny Amendola

Slot corner Patrick Robinson was the fourth-graded CB, per PFF, and he’ll have to play that way in a matchup with Danny Amendola, who has caught 18 balls for 196 yards and two TDs in the playoffs and emerged as Brady’s go-to receiver, especially when facing pressure. Defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz will also have to scheme to stop arguably the most dominant tight end to ever play, Rob Gronkowski.

In all likelihood, the New England offense is going to put up some points. They averaged 28.6 PPG in the regular season and hung 41 on the once-vaunted Broncos at Mile High. If the Eagles’ offense is going to keep up, it starts with their line creating holes for Jay Ajayi against a Patriot defense that surrendered the fifth-fewest points in the league, allowing just 14.4 points per game over their last 14. Doug Pederson’s offense will look to the ground game to help maintain its league-best 32:44 average time of possession, not only taking some pressure off backup QB Nick Foles, but also keeping Tom Brady and the league’s second-ranked scoring offense on the sideline.

Even if the Eagles’ lines are able to dominate, Tom Brady and company have shown they can overcome the greatest deficits (see the 25-point lead they erased in Super Bowl 51). It’s going to take one hell of a performance from Foles for the Eagles to win their first Lombardi Trophy. Fortunately for Philadelphia, Foles proved he has some big games in him against the NFL’s top-ranked defense last week. Will that be enough to take down a dynasty?

Eagles vs Patriots Betting Opportunities

Betting the Moneyline

Straight-Up Trends

Eagles Trends Head-to-Head Trends Patriots Trends
5-1 SU in last 6 games PH is 7-6 SU all-time vs NE 13-1 SU in their last 14 games
5-2 SU as an underdog NE is 4-1 SU in the last 5 meetings 15-3 SU as a favorite
4-1 SU when Nick Foles starts NE is 3-1 SU as a favorite vs PHI since 2003 3-1 SU vs NFC
0-2 SU in Super Bowls NE is 1-0 SU in Super Bowls vs PHI 5-4 SU in Super Bowls
0-1 SU when favored in Super Bowl 3-2 SU when favored in Super Bowl

*All trends are from the 2017 season, unless otherwise stated.

Expert Moneyline Advice: Patriots (-175)

As true as it is that football games are won in the trenches, I just can’t bring myself to take Nick Foles over Tom Brady. The Eagles secondary is sub-par at best, and has consistently been bailed out by the D-line applying pressure on QBs. Against Brady, king of the quick-passing game, Fletcher Cox and the rest of the Eagles front four won’t have time to get to the passer.

An Eagles victory would require another elite performance from Nick Foles, and that’s just not something I’m comfortable betting on.

Betting Against the Spread

  • Best Eagles Spread: +4.5 (-105) on Bovada.

Against the Spread Trends

Eagles Trends Head-to-Head Trends Patriots Trends
12-6 ATS this season PH is 3-1 ATS vs NE in last 4 meetings 4-1 ATS in last 5 games
5-2 ATS as an underdog PHI is 3-1 as an underdog vs NE since 2003 12-6 ATS this season
2-3 ATS when Nick Foles starts PHI is 1-0 ATS in Super Bowl vs NE 12-6 ATS as a favorite
1-1 ATS in Super Bowls 3-5-1 ATS in Super Bowls
1-0 ATS as a Super Bowl underdog 2-4 ATS as a Super Bowl favorite

*All trends are from the 2017 season, unless otherwise stated.

Expert ATS Advice: Patriots -4.5 (-105)

I’m not expecting a blowout here, but the Patriots will win by at least a touchdown. Bill Belichick is going to scheme to stop the Eagles’ running game and make Nick Foles beat him. As good as Philadelphia’s defense has been this season, stopping this Patriots offense appears to be a near-impossible task.

Betting the Game Total

  • Best Over Odds: 48.5 (-110) at MyBookie.ag.

You can also find -120 odds with a 48-point total at BetOnline.

  • Best Under Odds: 48.5 (-110) at Bovada.

If you’re willing to sacrifice the half-point, you can get EVEN (+100) odds on a 48-point total at BetOnline.

Game Total Trends

Eagles Trends Head-to-Head Trends Patriots Trends
UNDER is 3-1 in last 4 PHI games OVER is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings UNDER is 5-2 in the last NE games
UNDER is 9-9 in PHI games OVER is 3-1 when NE is favored vs PHI since 2003 UNDER is 10-8 in NE games
OVER is 5-2 when PHI is an underdog UNDER is 1-0 when they meet in the Super Bowl UNDER is 10-8 when NE is favored
UNDER is 3-2 when Nick Foles starts OVER is 5-4 in NE Super Bowls
UNDER is 2-0 in PHI Super Bowls UNDER is 3-2 in Super Bowls where NE is favored

*All trends are from the 2017 season, unless otherwise stated.

Expert Game-Total Advice: Over 48.5 (-110)

Doug Pederson is one of the most creative offensive minds in the league, and with two weeks to prepare, he will design a handful of gadget plays to take big swings at the Patriots defense. Although I do not foresee Philadelphia sustaining much success on offense, they will put up enough points to hold up their end, pushing the total OVER 48.5.

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There are many things our Brand and Content Manager credits to sports: knowing his multiples of seven, his love for chicken wings, and his unceasing will to win. It didn't take many Sundays on the couch for the passion and competitiveness to blossom. Before landing at SBD, Matt was hosting and producing a sports show on local TV.