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Super Bowl Commercial Odds – Predictions Markets on Which Companies Will Run Ads

Sascha Paruk

By Sascha Paruk in NFL Football

Updated: February 3, 2025 at 12:24 pm EST

Published:


Close-up of a hand holding a bottle of Coke
Mar 22, 2024; Sandy, Utah, USA; Fans hold up Coca-cola bottles during the first half between North Carolina Courage and Utah Royals FC at America First Field. Mandatory Credit: Christopher Creveling-USA TODAY Sports
  • Odds are out on which companies will run commercials during Super Bowl 59
  • Apple, Coke, OpenAI are among the favorites
  • See the Super Bowl commercial odds and prediction-market prices from Kalshi

Super Bowl 59 between the Philadelphia Eagles and Kansas City Chiefs is just ten days away. The litany of Super Bowl props have already started to pour in, and prediction site Kalshi has dipped its toe into the Super Bowl trading markets with odds on which companies will run commercials during the big game. Nine companies in total are on the board with YES prices ranging from 68¢ to 13¢, and NO prices from 89¢ to 36¢. The table below sets out the latest YES and NO prices along with the percentage chance currently listed at Kalshi.com.

Super Bowl Commercial Odds & Prediction Markets

Company% ChanceYESNO
Apple Inc. 69%68¢36¢
Coca-Cola Company64%64¢37¢
OpenAI60%59¢47¢
T-Mobile51%80¢49¢
Verizon49%80¢54¢
Perplexity36%49¢65¢
Anthropic30%36¢73¢
Hyundai13%13¢89¢
Nvidia11%14¢89¢

If you are new to Kalshi and/or predictions markets in general, their sports trading markets are similar to sports betting, but technically a little different. Users buy YES or NO contracts on the outcome of a binary event. If that event comes to fruition, every YES contract pays out $1. If it doesn’t, every NO contract pays out $1. The buyer’s profit margin or loss depends entirely on the price at which they purchased the contract(s). Learn more about how Kalshi works here.

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Odds and contract prices from Kalshi at 3:09 pm ET, January 30. Check out the top Super Bowl betting apps for Chiefs vs Eagles.

Many of the Super Bowl advertisers have already been confirmed. A quick Google search yields dozens of lists and even teasers for the commercials themselves. The companies on the board in Kalshi’s prediction market are ones that are still up-in-the-air.

How Many Super Bowl Commercials Are There?

There is no set number. It depends on how many companies buy 30-second ads and how many buy longer blocks. Last year, there were 59 Super Bowl commercials in total, according to the USA Today “ad meter”. The year prior, there were only 51 on the list.

Bettors can expect somewhere between 50 and 60 again in the 2025 edition.

Why Are Apple, Coke, OpenAI the Super Bowl Commercial Favorites?

Apple didn’t run a Super Bowl commercial last year but they are still the owners of, according to many experts, the most-famous Super Bowl commercial of all time, a.k.a. “1984”, which ran during Super Bowl 18 in, you guessed it, 1984.

But according to the archives at superbowl-ads.com, Apple hasn’t run a commercial during the Super Bowl since 1999.

YouTube video

Coke also has a long, storied history of Super Bowl commercials – think “Hey Kid, Catch!” – but they haven’t run a Super Bowl ad for their flagship product since 2019. It’s important to note that the prediction market specifies “Coca-Cola Company”, not just “Coke”. Coca-Cola is a massive company that owns hundreds of brands. The YES here could also cash with a commercial for Sprite, Powerade, Dasani, Fanta, Barq’s, Vitamin Water, or Minute Maid.

Check out SBD’s wide-ranging Super Bowl 59 coverage, including a picks, predictions, and NFL betting strategies:

Sascha Paruk
Sascha Paruk

Managing Editor

Sascha has been working in the sports-betting industry since 2014, and quickly paired his strong writing skills with a burgeoning knowledge of probability and statistics. He holds an undergraduate degree in linguistics and a Juris Doctor from the University of British Columbia.

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