Texans Open as 3-Point Favorites vs Bills in AFC Wild Card

• The Houston Texans have now made the playoffs for the fourth time in the last five seasons
• The Buffalo Bills registered their first 10-win season since 1999 
• Read below for our prediction on how the line might move before kickoff

The Houston Texans and Buffalo Bills both finished the year 10-6. Since the Texans won their division, though, they’ll host an AFC Wild Card match with the Bills on Wild Card Weekend. The Texans have opened as a three-point favorite. Which way will this line move by kickoff?

Buffalo Bills vs Houston Texans Odds

Odds taken Dec. 29.

Bills Back In Playoffs For Second Time Since 1999

The Buffalo Bills haven’t been a regular in the playoffs as their Wild Card showdown will be just their second playoff game since 1999. They haven’t won a playoff game in that entire span. Regardless of what happens this weekend, 2019 was a good year for the team as they hadn’t won 10 games since that 1999 season.

The key to the Bills’ success this season was running the football, as their rush offense ranked fifth in the NFL in yards (132.1 per game). Quarterback Josh Allen was passable as a starter, at times looking elite and at times looking ordinary. He had no 300-yard passing games on the year and finished with a QBR of 47.2 (25th in the NFL).

An issue for this team is that they’re limping into this matchup a little bit. They dropped three of four to close out the regular season and even though they tried to rest players in Week 17, they still suffered injuries. Cornerback Levi Wallace and offensive lineman Ty Nsekhe and Cody Ford were all injured on Sunday.

Texans Still Searching For Playoff Success Under Bill O’Brien

The Texans are back in the playoffs for the fourth time in their last five seasons under head coach Bill O’Brien but they’re still in search of that elusive playoff success. They’ve picked up just one playoff win in his tenure and that came against the Oakland Raiders, who were forced to start a backup quarterback (Connor Cook).

The Texans were a hard team to figure out this season as they picked up wins over the New England Patriots and Kansas City Chiefs, yet also had bad losses to the Denver Broncos, Carolina Panthers and Indianapolis Colts. They’re a bit of a Jekyll and Hyde, but we do know that they have an electric offense.

Houston entered Week 17 ranking 11th in points per game (24.3) and yards (366.1) before resting their starters. Everyone knows about their electric passing game but they have success when they’re balanced on offense. In their 10 wins, Deshaun Watson had 31.9 pass attempts. In their losses, he averaged 44 passes per game.

Which Way Will The Line Move?

The Texans have opened up as a field goal favorite in the NFL odds and that seems about right. I wouldn’t expect to see a lot of line movement one way or the other. These two teams are both 10-6 and both can show up and play great, or both could show up and play very poorly.

In general, with the bettors’ perception of the teams being about equal, I have a hard time seeing this line climb any higher. If anything, it might go lower as bettors might see this as a coin toss type of game, which might point them in the direction of the Bills. Even so, I can’t see this going much lower than 2.5.

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