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The Three Best Value Bets to Win Super Bowl 56 Ahead of Week 1 – NFL Futures Picks

Chris Amberley

by Chris Amberley in NFL Football

Updated Sep 6, 2021 · 6:00 AM PDT

George Kittle turns up field
San Francisco 49ers tight end George Kittle (85) before an NFL preseason football game against the Las Vegas Raiders in Santa Clara, Calif., Sunday, Aug. 29, 2021. (AP Photo/Tony Avelar)
  • The 2021 NFL season kicks off Thursday, September 9th, and there is plenty of value to be found in the futures market
  • Just one season removed from a Super Bowl appearance, the San Francisco 49ers have the easiest schedule in the league in 2021
  • See below for odds, analysis and a few value bets to target

The NFL is back. The most heavily wagered on sport officially returns on Thursday (September 9th). While most of the public is racing to the window to bet Kansas City, Tampa Bay or Buffalo to win it all in 2021, there are a few other teams that should be on your radar at more favorable odds.

Since 1983, only three teams have won the Super Bowl after entering the season with odds north of +3000. History indicates we should focus our futures bets on teams with a price tag of 30-1 or shorter, so check out our favorite Super Bowl value bets below.

Super Bowl Futures Picks

Pick Odds
San Francisco 49ers +1400
Seattle Seahawks +2500
Los Angeles Chargers +3000

Odds as of Sept. 5th.

Super Bowl odds vary greatly from one online sportsbook to another, so it’s important to price shop. For example, San Francisco’s championship price is as short as +1200, but is available at DraftKings Sportsbook for +1400.

There’s even more of a discrepancy between’s Seattle’s Super Bowl odds around the industry. They’re priced as short as +2000, but can be had for +2500 at BetMGM.

The LA Chargers meanwhile, are priced at exactly +3000 no matter where you look. That number still makes them a quality value bet, as we’ll discuss later.

49ers Full of Value

San Francisco is just one season removed from a Super Bowl appearance, and enter the 2021 campaign with the league’s easiest schedule according to NFL SOS.

2020 was a year to forget, as they finished 6-10 and lost the second most adjusted games due to injury or illness. They played most of the season without their starting QB, and arguably their best players on both sides of the field, George Kittle and Nick Bosa.

The sliver lining is they now get to play a last place schedule, which increases their probability of making the playoffs, and finishing with a high seed.

Of course, the biggest question mark is at the quarterback position. But whether it’s Jimmy Garoppolo or 3rd overall pick Trey Lance behind center (or both), bettors should have confidence that Kyle Shanahan will maximize their efficiency.

San Fran bolstered its offensive line by adding former Pro Bowl center Alex Mack and re-signing left tackle Trent Williams. Those moves should help solidify their position as one of the NFL’s most dominant rushing units.

Defensively, they enter the season in good health. Even after being decimated by injury in 2020, they still finished with a top-nine grade from Pro Football Focus. They feature an elite defensive front, hyper-athletic linebackers and ball hawks in the secondary.

They’re loaded with blue chip talent and led by one of the sharpest minds in football. At +1400 to win Super Bowl 56, the 49ers are a steal.

Pick: San Francisco 49ers (+1400), Risk: 1 unit

Seahawks Will Surprise

It may seem counter intuitive to back two NFC teams from the same division, but the NFC West could easily produce three playoff clubs in 2021. Seattle is a top-10 squad in the NFL Power Rankings, and feature one of the most dangerous passing games.

There aren’t more than a few quarterbacks you’d take ahead of Russell Wilson, while both D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett have 100+ catch, 15 TD upside.

Defensively, the Seahawks have arguably their best pass rushing unit since their 2013 championship team, while Bobby Wagner and Jamal Adams were both named top-31 players on the NFL Network’s 2021 Top-100 players list.

Question marks exist at the cornerback position, but with Pro Bowl safeties Adams and Quandre Diggs on the field, the secondary is in good hands.

They have a favorable schedule outside of their division with matchups against the AFC South and NFC North, and Pete Carrol has a long track record of success in Seattle.

The Seahawks have won at least 10 games in eight of the past nine seasons, missing the postseason just once since 2011.

Pick: Seattle Seahawks (+2500), Risk: 0.75 units

Go Chargers Go

It seems like nearly every year over the past decade the Chargers have entered the season with a ton of hype. 2021 might finally be the season where they actually live up to their billing.

Quarterback Justin Herbert, fresh off an incredible rookie of the year campaign, is poised for even bigger things in 2021, and the team finally has a head coach other squads are envious of.

Brandon Staley is already the favorite to win coach of the year. After seeing how he maximized the Rams defense in 2020, Charger bettors should be salivating at the thought of how he’ll deploy a healthy Joey Bosa and Derwin James.

Back to Herbert, who showed incredible poise and efficiency under pressure as a rookie. He was PFF’s top graded passer under duress, and was rewarded with the addition of All-Pro center Corey Linsley. The Chargers also drafted Rashawn Slater in the 1st round, all but assuring a drastic improvement for an offensive line that finished 31st in pass block win rate, and 32nd in run block win rate in 2020.

The Chargers have the 13th easiest schedule in the NFL, and with all their key playmakers healthy entering the season, don’t be surprised to see this team challenge for the AFC’s top seed.

Pick: Los Angeles Chargers (+3000), Risk: 0.75 units

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