Top Sharp Picks for Week 16: Plenty of Money Coming in on Panthers vs Colts
- More sharps (8.8%) are betting the Indianapolis Colts than any other NFL team in Week 16
- However, 7.9% of sharps are playing the Carolina Panthers, Indy’s opponent this week
- There’s 8.4% of sharp money wagered on the New England Patriots
Can you blame sportsbooks from being split almost down the middle by the Indianapolis Colts?
What to make of the Colts? They’ve lost four in a row. They’re 0-2-1 against the spread over the past three games.
Then again, they’re playing the Carolina Panthers. If there ever was an NFL elixir to fix what ails a team, it’s a match up with the Panthers.
They’ve lost six in a row, and are 1-4-1 ATS in those six games.
Is it any wonder that 8.8% of sharps are backing the Colts? That’s the most sharp money bet on any team entering Week 16 of the NFL schedule.
On the other hand, can you blame the 7.9% of sharps who are backing the Panthers? With the way the Colts are playing lately, if Carolina is going to win another game this season, it’s probably going to be this one.
Sharps are also backing the New England Patriots at 8.4%, the New York Giants at 7.6% and the Philadelphia Eagles at 6.1%.
NFL Week 16 Sharps Bets
| Bet | Percentage of Sharp Money |
|---|---|
| Indianapolis Colts (-6.5) over Carolina Panthers | 8.8% |
| New England Patriots (-6.5) over Buffalo Bills | 8.4% |
| Carolina Panthers (+6.5) over Indianapolis Colts | 7.9% |
| New York Giants (PK) over Washington Redskins | 7.6% |
| Philadelphia Eagles (+2) over Dallas Cowboys | 6.1% |
Odds taken on Dec. 13
Check out the lines on all of this weekend’s games via the Week 16 NFL odds page.
Colts Giving Panthers Plenty of Points
Indy is 1-6 over the past seven games. The only win posted by the Colts in that span came against the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Jags are 1-5 over the past six games.
During their current six-game losing streak, the Panthers lost at home to the 3-11 Redskins and dropped a pair of games to the 5-9 Atlanta Falcons. They’ve lost four straight on the road and are 1-3 ATS in those games.
Then again, the Panthers are 5-1-1 the last seven times they’ve been a road underdog of six or more points. Carolina won outright earlier this season as 5.5-point road underdogs at Houston, and the Texans are on the brink of winning the AFC South title.
Panthers expected to start rookie QB Will Grier vs. Colts. (via @RapSheet) pic.twitter.com/72VH0J5N6c
— NFL (@NFL) December 16, 2019
A monkey wrench was thrown into the wagering on this game when Panthers interim head coach Perry Fewell announced that Carolina third-string quarterback Will Grier would be starting this week. The rookie has never thrown a pass in an NFL regular-season game.
The Panthers have scored an NFL-high 19 rushing touchdowns, while the Colts have allowed the fourth-fewest rushing TDs, a paltry eight. If Indy can win the ground battle, then it forces Grier to the air.
Zach Pascal literally could not have been more open. #Colts#Saints#INDvsNO pic.twitter.com/IgAQl7epFx
— Chris Shepherd (@NFLscheme) December 17, 2019
However, that’s not necessarily good news for Indy, which may be without three of four starters in the secondary. Cornerbacks Kenny Moore (ankle) and Quincy Wilson (shoulder) are out, while safety Malik Hooker (hand) is questionable. Defensive lineman Denico Autry (concussion) is also out. He has 3.5 sacks this season.
On the surface, this seems like a game to avoid. It’s probably the game among these four that you should be least likely to bet. But if you must, take the Panthers and the points.
Pick: Carolina Panthers (+6.5)
AFC East on the Line
As 10-4 Buffalo travels to 11-3 New England, you’re heart is telling you to bet the Bills. But your heart is reciting the facts of life.
Pats QB Tom Brady is 31-3 lifetime against the Bills. Brady is 5-0 against Buffalo coach Sean McDermott.
I expect Bills D to play well vs Brady. But what can offense do? In 5 games during McDermott tenure, BIlls O has scored 47 points. They have 2 TD's in 57 drives. QB's have 1 TD and 8 INT's. They've gone 1-9 in red zone
— Howard WGR (@hsimon62) December 20, 2019
Buffalo has dropped six in a row and eight of nine to New England. Then again, the only victories by the Bills over the Patriots since 2011 both came at Gillette Stadium.
Realistically, Buffalo probably could win this game. But the Bills will find a way to mess it up.
The Patriots are the sharp pick you should make your best bet.
Pick: New England Patriots (-6.5)
Should You Keep up with Jones?
Daniel Jones is back under center for the Giants after a two-week absence due to an ankle injury. He beat the Redskins 24-3 in his first NFL start.
Giants QB Daniel Jones will start Week 16 vs. Redskins. pic.twitter.com/lfb7o0yeDw
— NFL (@NFL) December 20, 2019
That game also saw Washington rookie Dwayne Haskins get his first NFL action. He’s now the starter and gets better every week. Coming off his best game as an NFLer, he’ll get the job done against woeful New York.
Pick: Washington Redskins (PK).
Ride ’em Cowboys?
Who was that team that whipped the Los Angeles Rams last week? Yes, that really was the Cowboys.
Cowboys beat Rams…
Cowboys beat Eagles in Philly..
Cowboys lose at home to Redskins…
Eagles win the NFC East
Don’t even pretend this isn’t happening.
— Cousin Sal (@TheCousinSal) December 15, 2019
Leading into the biggest game of the season, the Cowboys went back to what’s worked for them in the past. They ran the ball effectively with Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard. That opened up the vertical passing game.
Pick: Dallas Cowboys (-2).
An industry veteran, Bob literally taught the course on the history of sports at Elder College. He has worked as a Sports Columnist for Postmedia, appeared as a guest on several radio stations, was the Vice President of the Society For International Hockey Research in Ontario, and written 25 books.
