NFL Upset Picks for Week 5 – Best Underdogs to Bet
- Will the New York Jets pull off an upset for the second week in a row, this time against Atlanta overseas?
- Can the Chicago Bears and this new-look offense keep pace with the Las Vegas Raiders?
- Last week’s picks went a mere 1-2 but we still came out ahead 0.35 units, bringing our season total to +10.58 units (7-4 record)
The beauty of betting underdogs is that when that longshot comes in, your day is already made. The Jets cashed in for us last week, making it four straight winning outings.
We’re going to keep it rolling with Robert Saleh and company again, as one of only two upsets I like across a pretty tight Week 5 NFL slate. Set your alarms for this one folks.
NFL Week 5 Upset Picks
| Matchup | Spread | Moneyline | Pick | Units |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Jets vs Atlanta Falcons | ATL -2.5 | +128 | Jets | 1.5 |
| Chicago Bears vs Las Vegas Raiders | LV -5.5 | +198 | Bears | 1.5 |
Odds taken Oct. 8 from FanDuel
Jets Start Streak Against Hopeless Falcons
We often end up betting a lot of the same teams across a season of picking upsets, but if you told me before the year that the Jets would appear in this column twice in the first five weeks, I wouldn’t believe it. Yet that’s the reality we live in as 1-3 Gang Green travels across the pond to face a 1-3 Atlanta Falcons team favored by 2.5 points.
Despite bringing in a new coaching staff this year, Atlanta showed they’re still committed to the Falcons’ calling card: blowing leads late. The Football Team rallied back against this Atlanta D that continues to toil amongst the league’s worst.
HEINICKE pic.twitter.com/enCGVTqIdj
— Barstool Sports (@barstoolsports) October 3, 2021
As we know, New York got their first win of the year, assuaging concerns about concerns about Zack Wilson’s development by lighting up a weak Titans secondary. With another poor unit on tap, Jets fans could see more plays like this from their new hope.
GANG GREEN TAKES THE LEAD‼️ Zack Wilson with a 🎯 late in the 4th‼️✈️pic.twitter.com/VSqGZVHnGk
— Oracle Sports (@OracleSports1) October 3, 2021
Arthur Smith hasn’t been able to reignite Atlanta’s offense yet: his only real accomplishment is making Cordarrelle Patterson a fantasy star. Playing behind a bad offensive line, Matt Ryan hasn’t looked to push the ball downfield to Calvin Ridley and Kyle Pitts. Now, the Falcons blockers will need to stop a Jets front that had seven sacks and 14 hits against Smith’s previous offense last week.
Matt Ryan 2020 vs 2021
Average depth of target:
2020 — 8.53 yards
2021 — 4.25 yardsPercentage of passes that traveled 10+ air yards:
20 — 36%
21 — 16%15+ air yards:
20 — 22%
21 — 9%20+ air yards:
20 — 13%
21 — 2%— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) September 30, 2021
On top of that, news broke Thursday that Calvin Ridley won’t be making the trip to London due to personal reasons, making life even more difficult for this Falcons offense. While that news makes me more confident in this pick, it also means a lot of the value this line offered at this start of the week is no longer there.
Bears Rattle Raiders
I realize trashing a team whilst fading them one week, only to turn around and pick them seven days later is a confusing look. But let me justify why backing the Bears as 5.5-point underdogs in Las Vegas this Sunday is not a completely ludicrous 180.
First, Matt Nagy took the criticism of his gameplan in Cleveland to heart, going so far as to ask offensive players for input on what they’d like to run (not sure why that’s not a consideration from Day 1). But the most notable change was Nagy once again turned play calling over to Bill Lazor, and with the calm-voiced OC guiding Justin Fields, the Bears offense had a strong outing against a weak Lions team.
Better @NextGenStats passing chart this week for Bears QB Justin Fields pic.twitter.com/iw3Q7Plss9
— Kevin Fishbain (@kfishbain) October 3, 2021
Detroit still had their chances to win this game, but every time they got into the red zone, this ferocious Bears pass rush would make a big play. Chicago actually leads the NFL in sacks through four games, which won’t be welcome news to Derek Carr after the Chargers pass rush shook him up on Monday Night.
"We knew once we hit him a few times, he really gets shook. And you saw on (Covington's) sack, he was pretty much curling into a ball before we even got back there. Great dude, great player…but we know once you get pressure on him, he kind of shuts down."
Joey Bosa on Carr pic.twitter.com/QRBbUL8dVT— Archibald Stanton (@archsaction) October 5, 2021
In Khalil Mack’s first revenge game against the Raiders, Jon Gruden did everything he could to limit the former fifth overall pick’s impact, by running away from him and constantly providing help. With the way Robert Quinn has been playing opposite Mack this season, Gruden can’t spend all this time focusing on stopping 52. If he does, the rest of this weakened Raiders offensive line could be in trouble.
Highest graded EDGE rushers in week 4
1) Trevis Gipson (92.6)
2) Shaquil Barrett (90.5)
3) Myles Garrett (90.2)
4) Emmanuel Ogbah (86.5)
5) Jerry Hughes (86.0)
6) Nick Bosa (85.8)
7) Robert Quinn (84.5)
8) Melvin Ingram III (83.6)via (@PFF) pic.twitter.com/fCqoYPKQlc
— Smart Football (@SmartfootbalI) October 4, 2021
The Bears will be without David Montgomery, which will be damaging over the long run, but Damien Williams is a solid replacement for this week. Against a Raiders secondary that was dealt a few injuries on Monday Night, Chicago just might be able to keep pace with Vegas in this one.
Eric Thompson has been with SBD since 2015, serving as a sports betting expert in NFL, NHL, NBA, and MLB. If you want someone who eats, sleeps, and breathes sports news and betting, Eric is your man. Having studied economics at university, he understands what value is and how to spot it.
