NFL Week 1 AI Picks – Best Over/Under Bets & Totals to Target
By Sascha Paruk in NFL News
Published:
The 2026 NFL season is here, offering a fresh slate for the betting market. Using last season’s data as the foundation, adjusted for offseason player movement, I have run the Week 1 NFL odds through our A.I. prediction model in order to find the best game totals to target.
The table below summarizes the A.I.’s sports betting picks for Week 1, listing its top O/U pick for each Week 1 game, plus the site offering the best odds on each pick. Under the table, find the computer’s brief rationale for each bet.
NFL Week 1 AI Picks: O/U Predictions
“Best Odds” as of 1:43 pm ET, Sep. 9. Claim SBD’s exclusive Polymarket sign-up bonus ahead of Week 1.
Patriots vs Seahawks Game-Total Pick
Take the Over 44.5. Seattle is favored at home, but New England’s plus-money underdog status creates a path to a competitive game. With both teams capable of producing explosive plays, the matchup can clear a relatively modest total.
49ers vs Rams O/U Pick
Take the Over 48.5. In 2025, the Rams boasted a high-scoring offense that led the league with 30.5 points per game. Backed by Matthew Stafford’s 276.9 passing yards per game last season, I expect an air raid offensive clinic resulting in a high-scoring shootout.
Saints vs Lions Game-Total Pick
Take the Over 49.5. Detroit is a substantial home favorite, but New Orleans can contribute enough against a total approaching 50 points. The Lions’ offensive ceiling makes this a strong candidate for a fast-paced game with multiple scoring drives.
Browns vs Jaguars O/U Pick
Take the Under 40.5. Jacksonville is favored by more than a touchdown, while the low total signals limited expectations for Cleveland’s offense. A Jaguars-controlled game script could produce long possessions and keep the score below the number.
Bears vs Panthers Game-Total Pick
Take the Under 46.5. The Bears saw Caleb Williams throw for 27 touchdowns and 231.9 yards per game last year, pacing an offense that averaged 25.9 points. However, the Panthers managed just 18.3 points per game in 2025. Their lack of red-zone efficiency makes them a risky bet to keep pace.
Ravens vs Colts Game-Total Pick
Take the Over 47.5. The Colts averaged a robust 27.4 points per game last season, fueled by Daniel Jones from the pocket. The Ravens featured Lamar Jackson, who led a unit putting up 24.9 points per game in 2025. I anticipate enough offensive fireworks to push this total past the number.
Bills vs Texans O/U Pick
Take the Over 44.5. The Bills generated a staggering 28.3 points and 376.3 total yards per game in 2025. The Texans were no slouch either, posting 23.8 points per game last season. Josh Allen’s prolific production points toward a high-scoring, back-and-forth affair that clears this total.
Buccaneers vs Bengals Game-Total Pick
Take the Over 50.5. This is the highest total on the Week 1 board, reflecting expectations for two offenses that can attack through the air. Even with Cincinnati favored, Tampa Bay’s underdog price suggests a competitive game capable of reaching a shootout.
Falcons vs Steelers O/U Pick
Take the Under 42.5. Pittsburgh is favored at home in a matchup with a relatively restrained total. The Steelers’ ability to dictate tempo and the Falcons’ underdog status point toward a physical game in which drives are difficult to sustain.
Jets vs Titans Game-Total Pick
Take the Under 38.5. Both offenses struggled mightily last season, with the Jets averaging 17.6 points per game and the Titans managing just 16.7. I foresee a gritty field-position battle where Breece Hall’s ground-and-pound production from 2025 (66.6 rushing yards per game) controls the clock.
Cardinals vs Chargers O/U Pick
Take the Under 47.5. The Chargers scored just 21.6 points per game in 2025, while the Cardinals averaged a respectable 20.9 points per game last year. I anticipate the Chargers leaning on Kimani Vidal to grind out a tight, defensive-minded game that stays safely under the total.
Commanders vs Eagles Game-Total Pick
Take the Over 44.5. Philadelphia is a clear home favorite, but Washington has enough offensive potential to contribute to the total. The Eagles’ expected control of the game should create scoring opportunities on both efficient drives and short fields.
Dolphins vs Raiders O/U Pick
Take the Under 40.5. The board anticipates a close contest, yet the total is one of the week’s lowest. With neither team laying a large number, a methodical game and a few stalled red-zone possessions could keep the combined score below 40.5.
Packers vs Vikings Game-Total Pick
Take the Under 46.5. The Packers averaged 23.0 points per game last season compared to the Vikings putting up 20.2. With both teams featuring turnover-prone stretches in 2025, I expect conservative defensive schemes where Jordan Love manages the game cautiously, keeping the scoring limited.
Cowboys vs Giants O/U Pick
Take the Over 48.5. Dallas is favored by three points on the road, but the total is among the highest of the week. A competitive divisional matchup with two offenses capable of creating chunk plays should produce enough scoring chances to go over.
Broncos vs Chiefs Game-Total Pick
Take the Over 43.5. The Broncos were highly productive in 2025, racking up 23.6 points per game behind Bo Nix’s 25 touchdowns. The Chiefs averaged just 21.3 points last year, but Patrick Mahomes remains dangerous. I expect third-down conversions to come easily in a high-scoring battle.
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Week 1 NFL Spreads & Totals
- Patriots at Seahawks: Seahawks -3 | O/U 44.5
- 49ers at Rams: Rams -3.5 | O/U 48.5
- Saints at Lions: Lions -7 | O/U 49.5
- Browns at Jaguars: Jaguars -8.5 | O/U 40.5
- Bears at Panthers: Bears -3 | O/U 46.5
- Ravens at Colts: Ravens -3.5 | O/U 47.5
- Bills at Texans: Bills -1.5 | O/U 44.5
- Buccaneers at Bengals: Bengals -3.5 | O/U 50.5
- Falcons at Steelers: Steelers -3.5 | O/U 42.5
- Jets at Titans: Titans -1.5 | O/U 38.5
- Cardinals at Chargers: Chargers -9.5 | O/U 47.5
- Commanders at Eagles: Eagles -5.5 | O/U 44.5
- Dolphins at Raiders: Raiders -3.5 | O/U 40.5
- Packers at Vikings: Vikings -1.5 | O/U 46.5
- Cowboys at Giants: Cowboys -3 | O/U 48.5
- Broncos at Chiefs: Chiefs -2.5 | O/U 43.5
Odds as of Sep 9 at Caesars.
Managing Editor
Sascha has been working in the sports-betting industry since 2014, and quickly paired his strong writing skills with a burgeoning knowledge of probability and statistics. He holds an undergraduate degree in linguistics and a Juris Doctor from the University of British Columbia.
