Week 10 NFL Upset Picks – Underdogs Showing Value
- See three teams we feel could upset the odds and cash underdog tickets on Sunday
- Will Joshua Dobbs have another impressive performance in his second game with the Vikings and upset the Saints?
- Check out our favorite Week 10 NFL upset picks below
It’s time for another weekend of navigating the minefield that is the NFL. With new quarterbacks coming and going on the daily, scoring way down and serious injuries littering many NFL rosters, we’re picking out three teams who could show some potential to upset the Week 10 odds and cash our NFL upset picks.
NFL Week 10 Upset Picks
| Matchup | Spread | Moneyline | Pick | Units Risked |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saints vs Vikings | NO -3 | MIN +124 | MIN | 1 |
| 49ers vs Jaguars | SF -3 | JAC +142 | JAC | 1 |
| Jets vs Raiders | NYJ -1 | LV -102 | LV | 1 |
Our NFL underdog picks for Week 10 come in on the Minnesota Vikings +124, Jaconsonville Jaguars +142 and Las Vegas Raiders -102.
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Week 10 NFL Upset Picks
In this week’s NFL upset picks we’re putting our faith in Joshua Dobbs upsetting the Saints in his first home game with the Vikings, the Jaguars extending their winning streak to six games and in a battle of backups on Sunday Night Football, Aidan O’Connell getting the better of Zach Wilson.
NFL Upset Picks 1: Dobbs and Vikings to Upset Saints
New Orleans got the win last week, but it took everything they had and five turnovers from Tyson Bagent and the Bears for New Orleans to squeak out a late 24-17 win.
The Bears led in nearly all major statistical categories including: total yards, passing yards, rushing yards, yards per play, first downs, fourth down conversions, total plays and time of possession.
Josh Dobbs came into Minneosta last week after a trade from Arizona and with no practice went to Atlanta and led Minnesota to a 31-28 win. A full week of practice and at home to this Jekyll and Hyde Saints team could lead to another win and cash our upset picks.
NFL Upset Picks: Minneota (+124)
No notes 📝
(via @KyleBrandt, @gmfb) pic.twitter.com/AjnJfkWrph
— Jacksonville Jaguars (@Jaguars) November 10, 2023
NFL Upset Picks 2: Jaguars Extend Winning Streak Over 49ers
Both teams are coming out of their bye and that’s not traditionally a spot the 49ers have done well in. Since 2015, they are 3-6-0 ATS after the week off. The Jags meanwhile are 5-2-1 in that spot and this season they are tied for the best ATS record in the league at 6-2 with Detroit
But we’re talking straight up here not NFL ATS records and that tilts in the Jags’ favor as well. They’re 6-2 SU, while the 49ers are 5-3. Jacksonville was riding a five-game winning streak heading into their bye week. Two of those wins came on the road and two came in London, England.
Now they finally get a true home game. They’ll host one of the favorites in the Super Bowl 58 odds, however, San Francisco went into their bye losers of three in a row.
They do boast both a top-four offense and defense in PPG and PPG allowed. Though the only two teams they’ve beaten with a winning record are Pittsburgh and Dallas, and the Steelers are a bit fraudulent as a winning team.
After having never lost a regular season game, Brock Purdy has now lost three straight while failing to throw multiple touchdowns in any of those games. Trent Williams, maybe the best LT in the league is still questionable with an ankle injury.
Look, the 49ers are still a good team, but after three losses there’s certainly a case to be made for Jacksonville cashing in our Week 10 upset picks.
NFL Upset Picks: Jacksonville (+142)
What a BOMB from Aidan O’Connell 🚀
pic.twitter.com/SEzgbpRUcH— SleeperNFL (@SleeperNFL) November 5, 2023
NFL Upset Picks 3: Raiders Come Out On Top Over Jets on SNF
This is sorta a cop-out as the Raiders, 1-point underdogs aren’t even plus-money as an underdog. But technically they’re still the dog and the options were running short with several games falling into the same category in the NFL lines, plus some other large underdogs that probably won’t upset the odds.
The Jets are a top-ten defense in YPG allowed, unfortunately their offense is 31st in that category.
Zach Wilson is simply not an NFL starting quarterback. Wilson just played the Giants (21st) and Chargers (30th), two poor defensive teams, and he managed to put up 13 (in overtime) and six points respectively.
Wilson averages just 6.1 yards per pass attempt (31st) and the Jets are 29th in air yards.
The Raiders aren’t a great team either and Aidan O’Connell may also not be a starting NFL QB. But Las Vegas is 3-1 at home after last week’s moral boosting 30-6 win over the Giants. That came via three rushing touchdowns and three fields goals, so let’s not get too excited about O’Connell. But the mood between these teams could not be more different right now, with the weight lifted off Las Vegas after Josh McDaniels was fired.
I don’t really trust either of these teams to win. But given the option between two teams that are both about equally poor, the better bet looks to be the home team, lined as a short dog and playing against a team on short rest.
NFL Upset Picks: Raiders (-102)
Ryan is SBD's resident soccer pro, though his repertoire is by no means limited to a single sport. His articles have been published by the Canadian Hockey League (CHL), Ontario Hockey League (OHL), and the Kitchener Rangers, and outlets like SportsXpress and Shredthespread.com
