NFL Week 10 Upset Predictions: Best Underdog Moneyline Picks

Despite a rough stretch for our NFL underdog prediction model, we are trusting the process that’s worked so well in past seasons. The model went 0-for-3 in Week 9, missing on the Commanders (20-13 vs LAR), Eagles (19-11 vs NYG), and Browns (23-22 OT at NOLA), which dropped its record to 10-17 (-4.40 units on 1-unit bets).

We will be riding out the storm, though. Based on the weighted, nine-signal upset criteria, here are the three underdogs our model likes most in Week 10.

NFL Week 10 Upset Predictions

“Best Odds” as of Nov 11. Claim the Kalshi promo code before trading on Week 10.

Carolina Panthers (+122, Novig) at New Orleans Saints

Hitting the highly predictive divisional short-dog metric (Signal 1) as a 2.5-point underdog, the Carolina Panthers lead the upset board. Dave Canales holds a coaching advantage (Signal 2) with a .372 career win percentage across 43 games, besting Kellen Moore’s .360 in 25 games.

Carolina sweeps the ground-and-turnover battle (Signal 4), producing 101.3 rushing yards and a -0.13 turnover margin per game, edging the New Orleans Saints’ 95.3 yards and -0.75 margin.

Carolina also averages 280.5 passing yards against a Saints defense yielding 255.6 through the air (Signal 6). Defensively, the Panthers allow 133.4 rushing yards compared to New Orleans’ 133.9 (Signal 7).

However, Canales is 0-2 all-time against Moore, and Carolina trails in sacks per game 1.50 to 2.88. To win outright, the Panthers must control the rushing battle and exploit the secondary while mitigating the opposing pass rush.

Washington Commanders (+127, Kalshi) at New York Giants

The Washington Commanders profile as a dangerous 2.5-point divisional underdog (Signal 1) thanks to statistical advantages in the trenches. Washington outperforms the New York Giants with 118.3 rushing yards per game and a +0.88 turnover margin, besting New York’s 112.1 rushing yards and -0.25 margin (Signal 4).

They also possess a stouter run defense, yielding just 102.3 ground yards per game compared to the Giants’ 123.6 (Signal 7).

Washington averages 2.12 sacks per game to New York’s 2.00 (Signal 9), while their 222.0 passing yards per game overcome a Giants defense allowing 189.3 (Signal 6). Conversely, Washington misses on coaching signals. Dan Quinn’s .500 career win percentage falls short of John Harbaugh’s .611, and Quinn is 0-2-1 all-time against Harbaugh.

To spring the upset, the Commanders must lean on their robust run defense and positive turnover margin.

Pittsburgh Steelers (+170, Kalshi) at Cincinnati Bengals

Though missing the divisional short-dog metric as a 3.5-point underdog, the Pittsburgh Steelers hit five crucial signals driven by coaching and defensive dominance. Mike McCarthy brings a .604 career win percentage across 318 games, eclipsing Zac Taylor’s .485 in 131 games (Signal 2), and holds a 3-1 all-time head-to-head edge (Signal 5).

Pittsburgh controls the football (Signal 4), averaging 117.9 rushing yards and a +0.63 turnover margin per game against the Cincinnati Bengals’ 85.6 rushing yards and +0.25 margin.

Defensively, the Steelers allow just 83.9 rushing yards per game compared to Cincinnati’s 126.6 (Signal 7). They also generate 3.25 sacks per game against the Bengals’ 2.88 (Signal 9). Cincinnati’s clearest advantage lies in passing defense, allowing 248.6 yards per game compared to Pittsburgh’s 233.9 gained.

NFL Week 10 Best Underdog to Bet

Chasing the longest price blindly drains the bankroll; identifying mispriced probability creates the edge. The Pittsburgh Steelers (+155) imply roughly a 39.2% win probability, and the Washington Commanders (+117) suggest 46.1%. The top overall value on the slate belongs to Carolina.

The Carolina Panthers Moneyline (+122) implies a 45% chance of victory, yet the team earned a High confidence rating with a week-high 9 points.