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Week 12 NFL Upset Picks – Underdogs Showing Value

Ryan Metivier

by Ryan Metivier in NFL Football

Updated Nov 27, 2023 · 3:07 PM PST

New York Giants quarterback Tommy DeVito (15) celebrates after throwing a touchdown pass
Nov 19, 2023; Landover, Maryland, USA; New York Giants quarterback Tommy DeVito (15) celebrates after throwing a touchdown pass against the Washington Commanders during the second quarter at FedExField. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports
  • Which NFL underdogs are poised to pull off the upset in Week 12?
  • Can the upstart Texans and rookie CJ Stroud upset the AFC South leaders?
  • Check out our favorite Week 12 NFL upset picks below

This Sunday and Monday in the NFL features a slew of games that look to be coinflips. With as many as ten games lined at 3.5-points or less, the value surely looks to be on betting the underdogs. That’s exactly what we’ve done here in making the Giants, Texans and Buccaneers our top Week 12 NFL upset picks.

NFL Week 12 Upset Picks

Matchup Spread Moneyline Pick Units Risked
New England vs New York NE (-3.5) NYG (+154) NYG 1
Jacksonville vs Houston JAC (-1.5) HOU (+105) HOU 1
Tampa Bay vs Indianapolis IND (-2.5) TB (+120) TB 1

This weekend’s NFL upset picks for Week 12 include the Giants (+154), Texans (+105) and Buccaneers (+120). Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook.

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Week 12 NFL Upset Picks

Can Tommy DeVito get another win with the Giants? Will CJ Stroud continue his scorching start to his NFL career and upset the division-leading Jaguars? The Bucs don’t win often, but they do cover. Could that translate into an underdog upset on Sunday?

NFL Upset Picks 1: New England vs New York

This looks like an ugly, ugly game. The Patriots are 2-8 and the Giants are 3-8 and these are the bottom two teams in PPG with New England averaging 14.1 PPG and New York an even worse 13.5.

Neither of these teams have legit starting quarterbacks. Mac Jones at least entered the year as the starter and despite being benched multiple times he still holds that role (as of this writing). In ten games this season he has ten touchdowns and ten interceptions. He’s failed to throw a touchdown pass four times this season.

The Giants’ Tommy DeVito is certainly not a starting quarterback. In fact, he’s a third-string rookie. But I’ll give him this, he has slightly improved each week throwing zero, one, two and three touchdown passes in his appearances so far. In just three starts he has six touchdown and three interceptions. Not that far off of Jones despite playing six less games. It’s also more touchdowns (6) than another Jones, Daniel Jones, the Giants starter had in six games with only two.

This could go either way. But the Patriots are on the the road and shouldn’t be 3.5-point favorites over anyone.

NFL Upset Picks: Giants (+154)

NFL Upset Picks 2: Jacksonville vs Houston

Jacksonville may be the better team this year, 7-3 versus 6-4, and also in recent seasons. But when these AFC South rivals meet up you can throw the records out the window because only one has dominated this head-to-head. And that team is Houston. Last year each team won once, but the Texans are 10-1 versus the Jags in the past 11 meetings.

The Jags had been flying high with a five-game winning streak before losing a clunker coming out of the bye, 34-3 at home to the 49ers. But they rebounded last week with a convincing home win over another division rival, beating the Titans 34-14.

But the Texans and rookie QB CJ Stroud have been every bit as impressive of late. They’ve won three straight and Stroud has combined for 1,162 yards and eight touchdowns in those wins.

Neither team is great at defending the pass with Jacksonville 29th in yards allowed and Houston 25th, so this could turn into a shootout between two young quarterbacks in Stroud and Trevor Lawrence. This is the opposite of the first game in our upset picks in that we have two teams both playing great football right now so again there could be some value on the home dog.

NFL Upset Picks: Texans (+105)

NFL Upset Picks 3: Tampa Bay vs Indianapolis

Here we have two mediocre teams. Tampa Bay comes into Week 12 at 4-6 while Indy is 5-5. Both are still technically alive in the NFL division odds to win their division, though it looks less likely for the Colts.

Despite only having four wins, the Bucs are only one game back of the Saints for first place in the NFC South.

There’s not a whole lot to get excited about though with either of these teams. The Bucs are coming off of a 27-14 loss in San Fran and outside of a 20-6 win over Will Levis and the Titans, they’ve lost five of six.

I suppose you could say the Colts’ arrow is slightly more up after back-to-back wins and they’ll be fresher coming off of a bye. But a narrow 10-6 win over the Patriots in Germany and a 27-13 win over the 1-9 Panthers, aided by two pick sixes where Indy was out-gained are not exactly impressive.

The Bucs have been a covering machine though, going 7-3 ATS this season, tied for the second-best mark, including being 5-2 ATS as an underdog. They’re 4-0 ATS in their last four games and another cover here as a short road dogs could very well mean an outright win.

NFL Upset Picks: Tampa Bay (+120)

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