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Week 16 NFL Picks Against the Spread – Early Lines to Target

Robert Duff

by Robert Duff in NFL Football

Dec 20, 2022 · 12:32 PM PST

Week 16 NFL Picks Against the Spread - Early Lines to Target
Dec 18, 2022; Paradise, Nevada, USA; Las Vegas Raiders defensive end Chandler Jones (55) returns an interception for a touchdown against the New England Patriots at the end of the second half to give the Raiders a 30-24 victory at Allegiant Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Stephen R. Sylvanie-USA TODAY Sports
  • In the Week 16 NFL picks against the spread, the Cincinnati Bengals are looking to extend their ATS win streak to seven games as 3.5-point road favorites at New England
  • The Las Vegas Raiders are 2.5-point road underdogs at Pittsburgh as they meet the Steelers on the 50th anniversary of the Immaculate Reception
  • At Carolina, the Detroit Lions will be looking to cover for the eighth successive game as 2.5-point road favorites

Assessing the NFL Week 16 NFL picks against the spread, there are a number of games that jump out with the potential to be early lines to target.

There’s also a sure sign that not only does the NFL know its history, they also respect it. Saturday will be the 50th anniversary of the Immaculate Reception. In a 1972 AFC playoff game, the Pittsburgh Steelers won in the waning moments at home against Oakland. A desperation Terry Bradshaw pass deflected off Raiders DB Jack Tatum into the waiting hands of Steelers RB Franco Harris. He scampered for the winning touchdown.

Among the Week 16 games is a Raiders vs Steelers rematch in Pittsburgh on December 24, exactly 50 years to the day of that famous game. Making it more appropriate, after wins last week, both teams are 6-8 and still on the cusp of AFC playoff contention.

The NFL’s two hottest ATS teams are both favored to win on the road this week. The Detroit Lions, 7-0 ATS in their last seven games, are 2.5-point away picks at the Carolina Panthers. Meanwhile the Cincinnati Bengals, on a 6-0 ATS streak, travel to New England as the 3.5-point road chalk over the Patriots.

Should you be looking at any of these games in the Week 16 NFL odds as ATS picks? That’s certainly worthy to be taken into consideration.

Week 16 NFL Picks Against the Spread

Matchup Spread Pick Units Risked
Detroit Lions vs Carolina Panthers DET-2.5 DET 1
Cincinnati Bengals vs New England Patriots CIN-3.5 CIN 1
Las Vegas Raiders vs Pittsburgh Steelers PGH-2.5 LVR 1

Odds as of December 20 at Caesars Sportsbook. Get this Caesars Sportsbook bonus code to bet on the NFL.

Our top NFL ATS picks this week in the table above will feature plays on the Lions, Bengals and Raiders.

NFL ATS Pick 1: Raiders Have Steelers’ Number

This game will be played on the six-day anniversary of the Immaculate Interception. The Raiders beat New England 30-24 when DE Chandler Jones intercepted a Jakobi Meyers lateral and rambled for a TD on the last play of regulation.

For some time now, the Raiders have been getting the best of the Steelers. Las Vegas is 2-0 straight up and ATS in the past two meetings. The Raiders are also on 4-1 and 6-2 SU runs when facing Pittsburgh. As well, they’re on 5-0, 7-1 and 9-2 ATS rolls against Pittsburgh. At Pittsburgh, Las Vegas is 4-1 ATS in the past five games.

Pick: Las Vegas Raiders +2.5 (-110), 1 unit

NFL ATS Pick 2: In Battle of Cats, Lions Are Big Dogs

At 10-4, the Lions share the second-best ATS mark in the NFL this season. But this is new ground for them. Detroit is an away favorite for the first time in 2022. Despite their current 6-1 SU stretch, the 7-7 Lions remain +120 long shots to qualify for postseason play in the NFL playoff odds.

In fact, the last time the Lions were favored on the road was November 22, 2020, at Carolina. Detroit failed to cover as 3-point picks in a 20-0 loss. The outcome will be different this time.

Pick: Detroit Lions -2.5 (-110), 1 unit

NFL ATS Pick 3: Bengals End Patriots Playoff Hopes

With the way New England’s game against the Raiders ended, it’s hard to imagine the Patriots will be bouncing back against the Bengals. In the Bengals vs Patriots picks, New England is 0-2 ATS as a home underdog.

At 6-2 ATS on the road, the Bengals have covered in more road games than any NFL team. They’re 4-2 as the away chalk.

Pick: Cincinnati Bengals -3.5 (-110), 1 unit

  • ATS season record 28-17-1

Week 16 NFL Picks Against the Spread Quick Picks

  • Jaguars (+1) vs Jets: Jacksonville (6-8) is trending upward, while the Jets have lost three in a row
  • Ravens (-7.5) vs Falcons: Atlanta is 2-6 ATS in the last eight games
  • Giants (+3) vs Vikings: Giants are 10-4 ATS this season, tied for second-best in the NFL
  • Browns (-3) vs Saints: Cleveland keeps its faint playoff hopes alive
  • Texans (+5) vs Titans: Houston is 6-5 ATS as an underdog of 5+ points. Titans are 0-3-1 ATS over the past four games
  • Bears (+9) vs Bills: Buffalo is 2-4 ATS as a favorite of 9+ points.
  • Seahawks (+9) vs Chiefs: Kansas City has failed to cover in successive weeks as a favorite of 9+ points
  • Commanders (+7) vs 49ers: Washington is 6-2-1 ATS over the last nine games
  • Cowboys (-6) vs Eagles: Average margin of victory in the last five Dallas vs Philadelphia games is 17.6 points, with favorites going 4-1 ATS
  • Dolphins (-5.5) vs Packers: Dolphins are 4-2 ATS at home
  • Broncos (PICK) vs Rams: Rams have lost 10 games, tied for most losses by a reigning Super Bowl winner with the 1999 Broncos (6-10)
  • Buccaneers (-6.5) vs Cardinals: Tampa Bay is an NFL-worst 3-10-1 ATS, but the Bucs are 2-3 ATS as a road favorite
  • Chargers (-4) vs Colts: Chargers are 3-1 ATS as the away chalk



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