NFL Picks & Predictions for Week 4: Straight-up Best Bets & Upsets to Target
By Sascha Paruk in NFL News
Published:
The NFL Week 4 odds present intriguing spots for astute bettors to target, from road favorites aiming to stay perfect to desperate underdogs fighting for survival. The undefeated Kansas City Chiefs and Las Vegas Raiders highlight the slate in a massive AFC West clash. Meanwhile, winless squads like the Tennessee Titans, Miami Dolphins, Los Angeles Chargers, Houston Texans, and Tampa Bay Buccaneers enter early must-win territory.
Action kicks off on October 2 when the Pittsburgh Steelers visit the Cleveland Browns. Handicapping the card runs through the week’s finale, an NFC South rivalry between the Atlanta Falcons and New Orleans Saints on October 6.
Below, I have set out my straight-up pick for all 16 games on the Week 4 slate (our last week without byes until Week 14).
Week 4 NFL Picks
My Week 4 NFL picks are a blend of nine favorites and seven underdogs, with the 3-0 Raiders representing my biggest longshot of the week, priced at just 34¢ (equal to +194 odds) to win at home against the fellow 3-0 Chiefs.
The table below summarizes my SU picks record for the season as a whole, broken down by week.
The next sections dive deeper into my top-three favorites to back in Week 4, followed by my three best upset predictions.
NFL Best Bets for Week 4
- 49ers over Broncos (63¢ at Polymarket)
- Seahawks over Chargers (74¢ at Kalshi and Polymarket)
- Bengals over Jaguars (55¢ at Polymarket)
49ers Moneyline (vs Broncos)
The San Francisco 49ers (3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS) have operated as the league’s most-dominant team through the opening three weeks, pacing the NFL with a blistering +16.0 scoring margin per game and an explosive 7.35 offensive yards per play.
That high-octane production translates to a league-leading net efficiency margin of +2.51 yards per play over an opponent unit allowing under five yards per snap. Conversely, the Denver Broncos (2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS) arrive with a misleading winning record that masks severe offensive stagnation, producing just 4.97 yards per play while being outscored on the season (-3.3 point differential per game).
Denver’s -0.63 net yard-per-play differential exposes a bottom-tier down-to-down operational baseline that simply lacks the firepower to keep pace with San Francisco’s relentless pass rush and dynamic perimeter playmakers. With Kyle Shanahan’s offense firing on all cylinders at Levi’s Stadium, backing San Francisco to overpower Denver straight up represents premier fundamental value.
Seahawks Moneyline (vs Chargers)
The Seattle Seahawks (2-1 SU, 1-1-1 ATS) boast underlying metrics that firmly place them among the league’s top-tier contenders, powered by a stifling defense that is surrendering an NFL-low 3.83 yards per play.
Seattle’s dynamic 6.16 yards per play on offense creates a staggering +2.33 net yards per play differential and a healthy +8.3 average scoring margin.
They welcome a reeling Los Angeles Chargers (0-3 SU, 0-3 ATS) squad that remains winless and uncompetitive on both sides of the ball, lugging a -10.7 point differential per game and six costly giveaways.
Lumen Field remains one of the toughest road environments in football, where Seattle’s front seven routinely collapses opposing protections while generating consistent negative-yardage plays. Facing a spiraling Chargers team struggling to sustain drives or protect the football, Seattle’s overwhelming trench advantages and two-way efficiency make them a rock-solid wager at 74¢.
Bengals Moneyline (vs Jaguars)
The Cincinnati Bengals (2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS) present great value at Paycor Stadium against a Jacksonville Jaguars (2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS) squad whose surface-level results are heavily inflated by unsustainable turnover variance.
Jacksonville enters Week 4 with a +15.3 PPG differential, yet their underlying metrics tell a far different story as they post a negative net yard-per-play margin (-0.32 net YPP) and surrender 5.84 yards per play defensively.
Cincinnati matches them in the win column with a solid +5.7 scoring differential, an efficient passing attack generating 5.45 yards per play, and a defense that has forced five takeaways.
Cincinnati’s proven ability to maintain rhythm in late-down situations and control tempo in front of their home crowd will systematically expose Jacksonville’s defensive coverage vulnerabilities, making Cincinnati a prime selection at the equivalent of -122 odds.
NFL Upset Picks for Week 4
- Raiders over Chiefs (34¢ at Polymarket)
- Browns over Steelers (42¢ at Polymarket)
- Cowboys over Texans (44¢ at Kalshi)
Raiders Moneyline (vs Chiefs)
The Las Vegas Raiders (3-0 SU, 3-0 ATS) enter this heated divisional clash playing inspired, assignment-sound football, standing out as one of only two teams in the league with a perfect 3-0 ATS record.
Las Vegas has built a stout +34 scoring differential (88 PF, 54 PA) on the strength of an elite +5 turnover differential and nine defensive takeaways, creating extra possessions and short fields on a weekly basis.
While the Kansas City Chiefs (3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS) possess an identical 88 points scored, their margin for error narrows substantially against a disruptive defensive line capable of generating organic pressure without blitzing.
Las Vegas is already 2-0 straight up as an underdog this season, displaying remarkable poise in high-leverage fourth quarters. Getting more than a 2-to-1 return on investment at Allegiant Stadium against a division rival represents a massive mispricing by prediction markets.
Browns Moneyline (vs Steelers)
The Cleveland Browns (2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS) have repeatedly demonstrated elite dog resilience in gritty AFC North environments, already capturing two straight-up victories as betting underdogs this season. Both Cleveland and the Pittsburgh Steelers (2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS) enter Week 4 with identical 2-1 records and negative scoring differentials (-5.7 for Cleveland, -2.3 for Pittsburgh), underscoring that this divisional showdown will be determined in the trenches and by field position.
Cleveland’s defense yields only 5.38 yards per play and possesses the edge up front to stifle a Pittsburgh offense averaging just 4.79 yards per play. With the hostile home environment of Huntington Bank Field providing a significant situational boost on a short turnaround, Cleveland is primed to control the clock on the ground, create havoc in obvious passing downs, and cash another divisional home underdog ticket.
Cowboys Moneyline (vs Texans)
The Dallas Cowboys (1-2 SU, 2-1 ATS) travel down Interstate 45 to face the Houston Texans (0-3 SU, 0-3 ATS) in a classic Lone Star State showdown where the underlying metrics strongly favor the road underdog. Dallas features an explosive offense averaging 29.3 points and 5.60 yards per play, driving a positive +2.0 scoring differential per game (88 PF, 82 PA) that far exceeds what their 1-2 straight-up mark suggests.
In sharp contrast, the winless Texans remain stuck in neutral across every phase, failing to cover the spread in all three contests while laboring through a -7.0 point differential per game (54 PF, 75 PA) and generating an anemic 4.84 offensive yards per play.
Houston’s defense has been routinely stretched, allowing 25.0 points per contest and struggling to get off the field in high-leverage third-down situations. Having already covered in their lone appearance as a betting underdog this season, Dallas brings decisive advantages in quarterback efficiency, red-zone execution, and explosive-play rate against a reeling Texans squad facing mounting pressure.
Backing the potent Cowboys at plus-money pricing (equal to +127 odds0 offers immense value over a Houston team that has yet to demonstrate any operational consistency.
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Managing Editor
Sascha has been working in the sports-betting industry since 2014, and quickly paired his strong writing skills with a burgeoning knowledge of probability and statistics. He holds an undergraduate degree in linguistics and a Juris Doctor from the University of British Columbia.
