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NFL Week 5 Picks Against the Spread: Back to Betting Against the Bills

Josh Allen of the Buffalo Bills
Josh Allen's Buffalo Bills return home to face the Tennessee Titans in Week 5 of the 2018 NFL season. Photo by Erik Drost (Wiki Commons) [CC License]
  • See our three best bets against the spread for Week 5 in the NFL
  • Find picks for each game of the week
  • Season record = 4-5-3

I got robbed by the officials in the Browns vs Raiders game in Week 4, resulting in a push. And a couple missed Sebastian Janikowski field goals paired with the Seahawks going 0-10 on third down caused another push!

I’m now -$139.39 for the season based off $100 wagers for each game. Now let’s finally get back to some winning.

Here’s how we’ll do it in Week 5.

NFL Week 5 Best ATS Bets

Pick #1: Broncos Win in New York

Team Spread at Bovada Moneyline Total
Denver Broncos -1.5 (-105) -125 O 42.5 (-110)
New York Jets +1.5 (-115) +105 U 42.5 (-110)

*Odds taken 10/5

Since 2003, the Denver Broncos are 11-16 against the spread when playing in the early slate on Sundays in the Eastern time zone. And they’ve failed to cover each of their last five.

This isn’t just a Denver problem, though. Teams from the Mountain or Pacific time zones under the same circumstances – travelling to the Eastern time zone to play in the early slate on Sunday – are just 98-118-5 ATS. And that record goes to a very concerning 24-34 when the visitor is listed as a favorite, too.

However, the Jets are not one of the east coast teams who have paid off as a host in this scenario. They are just 8-8 against the spread since 2003 when playing at home against a team from the Mountain or Pacific time zone.

The Broncos haven’t been great this season, but they will not get beat by Sam Darnold and a Jets offense that has only managed 41 points in their last three games. This will be an outlier to the rule.

For a deeper look into the game, see our Broncos vs Jets Week 5 Odds and Picks.

Pick: Broncos (-1.5)

Pick #2: Get Back to Betting Against the Bills

Team Spread at Bovada Moneyline Total
Tennessee Titans -5.5 (-115) -250 O 39.5 (-110)
Buffalo Bills +5.5 (+100) +210 U 39.5 (-110)

The Buffalo Bills are the worst  team in football. Yes, I know the Cardinals have yet to pick up a win. But they look to be in a much better place with Josh Rosen under center than the Bills do with Josh Allen.

The Bills have yet to accumulate 300 yards of offense in any game this season, and their defensive stats are being saved by a game against the Minnesota Vikings, who are unable to protect their quarterback.

The Titans haven’t been great offensively, but Marcus Mariota has only been able to start two games this season and is now fully recovered from the elbow injury that was giving him numbness in his throwing hand.

Tennessee’s offense isn’t really what I’m betting on here, though. Their defensive line, led by Jurrell Casey, is going to tear this Bills offense up. I’m expecting at least one defensive touchdown in this one.

Pick: Titans (-5.5)

Pick #3: Panthers Win Big Coming off Bye

Team Spread at Bovada Moneyline Total
New York Giants +6.5 (-105) +235 O 43.5 (-110)
Carolina Panthers -6.5 (-115) -275 U 43.5 (-110)

Since 2014, the Carolina Panthers are 4-1 against the spread after a bye. Ron Rivera knows how to prepare his troops.

And considering there isn’t much to prepare for, facing a Giants team that ranks 29th in points scored and 25th in total offense, this one could get out of hand early.

Laying 6.5 points with a power offense like the Panthers isn’t something I’m always willing to do. But when you take into account the Giants are allowing 4.8 yards per carry (26th), that power running game can quickly turn into an explosive one.

The only thing that could keep this game close is Odell Beckham Jr taking over. But he would need a quarterback that could get him the ball to do so.

Pick: Panthers (-6.5)

Full Week 5 Picks Against the Spread

Visiting Team Home Team Spread at Bovada Pick
Green Bay Packers Detroit Lions GB -1 GB
Atlanta Falcons Pittsburgh Steelers PIT -3 ATL
Baltimore Ravens Cleveland Browns BAL -3 CLE
Miami Dolphins Cincinnati Bengals CIN -6 MIA
Jacksonville Jaguars Kansas City Chiefs KC -3 JAX
Oakland Raiders Los Angeles Chargers LAC -5 OAK
Los Angeles Rams Seattle Seahawks LAR -7.5 LAR
Minnesota Vikings Philadelphia Eagles PHI -3 PHI
Arizona Cardinals San Francisco 49ers SF -3.5 ARI
Dallas Cowboys Houston Texans HOU -3 HOU
Washington Redskins New Orleans Saints NO -6.5 NO
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