NFL Week 5 Picks Against the Spread & Early Lines to Target

• Four teams are on bye in Week 5, leaving 14 early lines to target
• The unstoppable Baltimore run game gets to feast on a bad Bengals front seven this Sunday
• See my three favorite NFL ATS picks for Week 5

After tonight’s MNF doubleheader, all 32 NFL teams will have played roughly 25% of their regular-season schedules. Week 5 brings the first round of byes as the Detroit Lions, LA Chargers, Philadelphia Eagles, and Tennessee Titans get a rest, leaving 14 games on the NFL Week 5 schedule.

Looking at the opening NFL Week 5 odds, there are a trio of spreads that look ripe for the picking.

Week 5 NFL Picks Against the Spread

My trio of picks this week start with a Baltimore vs Cincinnati line that’s already moved a full point in the Ravens’ direction in the last 24 hours. So if you’re going to bet Baltimore, bet them soon, because the odds are still climbing.

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NFL point spreads as of Sep. 30. at 3:29 pm ET. Download the top football betting apps to wager on Week 5. 

Week 5 ATS Pick #1: Baltimore Ravens -2.5 (-110) vs Cincinnati Bengals

It’s not difficult to see why this spread has moved towards the Ravens after opening at Baltimore -1.5. The Raven offense, particularly the ground game, has been downright terrifying the last two weeks as Baltimore ran roughshod over the Cowboys (28-25 in a game they led 21-6 at half) and Bills (35-10), two playoff teams from a season ago.

Now the Ravens get to feast on one of the most-vulnerable front sevens in the league in the form of the Bengals. Cincinnati is allowing 145.5 rushing yards per game (25th in the league) and have had the ball rammed down their throat by less-than-great offenses. New England ran for 170 at 4.4 YPC in Week 1 and Carolina just put up 155 on 5.3 YPC yesterday.

The ludicrous combination Derrick Henry and Lamar Jackson, meanwhile, has combined for 488 rushing yards over the last two weeks (against reasonably good defenses).

DERRICK HENRY TO THE HOUSE ON THE 1ST PLAY 🤯

87 YARDS TD.

(via @NFL)pic.twitter.com/PG2LE1xyQs

— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) September 30, 2024

The Bengals didn’t force a single punt from the Commanders in Week 3 and I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised if the same script played out against the Ravens.

Week 5 ATS Pick #2: Minnesota Vikings -2.5 (-110) vs New York Jets

The Vikings are listed as the home team but note that this game is on a neutral field at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium
in London (9:30 am ET). I still have no hesitation in backing Minnesota and fading the Jets. Aaron Rodgers and company were my favorite under bet in the preseason when it came to win totals, and their season is playing out roughly as I expected. I had no faith Rodgers was going to come back from an Achilles injury at age 40 and resume playing at an MVP level.

And he hasn’t.

Rodgers hasn’t been bad. He’s averaging 212.3 passing yards per game with a 64.1 completion percentage, five TDs, and one pick. His passer rating of 92.9 is fine.

Broncos defense played another strong game and was able to create pressure on Aaron Rodgers. The Jets were 4-17 on 3rd downs and Rodgers was sacked 5 times pic.twitter.com/wpJbR9JTwa

— Shawn Syed (@SyedSchemes) September 29, 2024

But he’s also gotten to play the Titans, Patriots, and Broncos the last three weeks. In London, he’ll have to face a Minnesota unit that ranks #1 in Defensive DVOA. If the Broncos got to Rodgers for five sacks, there’s no telling what Brian Flores’ defense is going to do.

I don’t expect a huge day out of Sam Darnold and the Viking offense against a very good New York secondary, but Justin Jefferson leads an excellent group of skill-position players and Minnesota should be able to do enough to cover as slight chalk.

Week 5 ATS Pick #3: Dallas Cowboys -0.5 (+110) vs Pittsburgh Steelers

No team has been less predictable than the Cowboys this year. Their defense was phenomenal in a 33-17 Week 1 win at Cleveland before getting shredded in back-to-back losses to the Saints (44-19) and Ravens (28-25). Week 4 wasn’t great but Dallas did emerge with a 20-15 win over the Giants in East Rutherford.

The Cowboys are now 2-0 on the road and 0-2 at home. The offense still has a very high ceiling when Dak Prescott, Ceedee Lamb, and Jake Ferguson are all healthy (which they are currently). Led by TJ Watt, the favorite in the 2024 NFL DPOY odds, Pittsburgh’s defense is arguably the best in the league. The offense has only managed 18.8 PPG through four weeks, though, and that’s with Justin Fields posting a career-best 98.0 passer rating.

I don’t have a ton of confidence in this pick. The Cowboys might lose by 20. But it also should be more of a toss-up on the moneyline. If Dallas plays to its potential, it’s going to leave Pittsburgh with a win. That’s why I am not taking the points. I am betting the line up to Dallas -0.5 at plus-money.