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Week 7 NFL Props – Best Player Props to Bet for Sunday, October 24

Matt McEwan

by Matt McEwan in NFL Football

Oct 23, 2021 · 6:18 PM PDT

Aaron Rodgers arms up in TD signal
Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers (12) celebrates a touchdown in the first half of an NFL football game, against the Minnesota Vikings, Sunday, Sept. 13, 2020, in Minneapolis. (AP Photo/Jim Mone)
  • Online sports betting sites have opened NFL player props for Week 7
  • There are eight NFL props Matt McEwan is highlighting for Sunday
  • See all the props available and our best bets below

Week 7 of the 2021 NFL season, also known as “Byemaggedon”, continues on Sunday. But with six teams on bye this week—the most we see in a single week all season—there are only ten games in the first two blocks on Sunday. This means fewer player props to choose from! (Not to worry, I still found more than enough to bet.)

Some bad luck with Kadarius Toney getting hurt early last week resulted in us losing 1.13 units last week, going 3-5. We’re still 12-10 over the last three weeks and are +2.82 units in that time.

You’ll find the NFL player props for Week 7 broken into sections below, with our best prop bets for each included.

Passing | Rushing | Receiving | Touchdown Props

NFL Passing Props

Quarterback Completions Passing Yards Passing TDs
Joe Burrow (CIN) 22.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120) 257.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 1.5 (Ov -145 | Un +110)
Lamar Jackson (BAL) 19.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110) 238.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 1.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120)
Taylor Heinicke (WAS) 22.5 (Ov -125 | Un -105) 237.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 1.5 (Ov +125 | Un -165)
Aaron Rodgers (GB) 22.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 259.5 (Ov -113 | Un -113) 2.5 (Ov +165 | Un -225)
Matt Ryan (ATL) 23.5 (Ov -114 | Un -114) 281.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 1.5 (Ov -230 | Un +170)
Tua Tagovailoa (MIA) 24.5 (Ov -105 | Un -125) 261.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 1.5 (Ov -105 | Un -130)
Zach Wilson (NYJ) 19.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120) 224.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 1.5 (Ov +150 | Un -205)
Mac Jones (NE) 22.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 245.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 1.5 (Ov -140 | Un +105)
Sam Darnold (CAR) 21.5 (Ov -125 | Un -105) 234.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 1.5 (Ov +110 | Un -145)
Daniel Jones (NYG) 20.5 (Ov -130 | Un +100) 232.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 1.5 (Ov +140 | Un -190)
Patrick Mahomes (KC) 28.5 (Ov +105 | Un -135) 323.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 2.5 (Ov -145 | Un +110)
Ryan Tannehill (TEN) 22.5 (Ov -105 | Un -125) 248.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 1.5 (Ov -125 | Un -105)
Jared Goff (DET) 25.5 (Ov -125 | Un -105) 265.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 1.5 (Ov -105 | Un -125)
Matthew Stafford (LAR) 23.5 (Ov +105 | Un -140) 290.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 2.5 (Ov -105 | Un -125)
Jalen Hurts (PHI) 22.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 246.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 1.5 (Ov +100 | Un -135)
Derek Carr (LV) 23.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 287.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 1.5 (Ov -210 | Un +155)
Davis Mills (HOU) 20.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110) 228.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 1.5 (Ov +150 | Un -200)
Kyler Murray (ARI) 23.5 (Ov +105 | Un -135) 263.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 2.5 (Ov +130 | Un -175)
Justin Fields (CHI) 19.5 (Ov -105 | Un -125) 220.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 1.5 (Ov +185 | Un -255)
Tom Brady (TB) 26.5 (Ov +105 | Un -135) 298.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 2.5 (Ov +125 | Un -170)

All props as of October 23.

Looking to the two blocks of early games on Sunday, excluding Sunday Night Football, Patrick Mahomes possesses the highest passing total for the week, set at 323.5. Justin Fields has the lowest at 220.5.

 

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Best Passing Props to Bet for Week 7

1) Aaron Rodgers OVER 259.5 Passing Yards (-113); risk 0.5 units

Aaron Rodgers is only averaging 239.3 passing yards per game this season. But that low average needs some context. In Week 1, Rodgers only threw for 133 yards in what was maybe the worst performance we’ve ever seen from him—he only played about three quarters of Green Bay’s offensive snaps as well.

Last week, Rodgers only posted 195 yards against a pretty good Bears pass defense. His next lowest passing total came against a decent Steelers pass defense in Week 4, where he recorded 248 yards through the air. He will not be facing a good defense against the pass this week, as Washington ranks last in the league.

The Football Team has allowed at least 271 passing yards in five of their six games this season, and just saw the Chiefs hang 390 on them.

2) Matt Ryan OVER 23.5 Completions (-114); risk 1 unit

Matt Ryan is averaging 28.2 completions per game this season, and has gone over 23 in four of five—he went under in Week 1. In what’s expected to be a close game against the Dolphins, I like him to go over that total again.

I don’t believe Atlanta is a good enough team to get themselves into a positive game script—see Week 5 against the Jets and Week 3 against the Giants—and Miami’s defense hasn’t had much success slowing down the aerial attack. The Dolphins have allowed the fourth-most passing yards per game this season, giving up 312 and 437 in the last two weeks.

Atlanta will look to attack this defense through the air, and Ryan will have no issue finding Calvin Ridley, Kyle Pitts, and Cordarrelle Patterson, among others.

NFL Rushing Props

Player Rush Attempts Rush Yards Rushing + Receiving Yards
Joe Mixon (CIN) 15.5 (Ov -110 | Un -115) 56.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 77.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Lamar Jackson (BAL) 60.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Antonio Gibson (WAS) 48.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110) 62.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Aaron Jones (GB) 66.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 95.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Mike Davis (ATL) 12.5 (Ov -115 | Un -110) 46.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 63.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Cordarrelle Patterson (ATL) 37.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 77.5 (Ov -114 | Un -114)
Michael Carter (NYJ) 11.5 (Ov -110 | Un -115) 44.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110) 60.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Damien Harris (NE) 14.5 (Ov -130 | Un +100) 65.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 75.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Chuba Hubbard (CAR) 18.5 (Ov -110 | Un -115) 74.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 95.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Darrel Williams (KC) 14.5 (Ov -110 | Un -115) 57.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 77.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Derrick Henry (TEN) 25.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110) 128.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 153.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
D’Andre Swift (DET) 12.5 (Ov +110 | Un -145) 42.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 92.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Darrell Henderson (LAR) 16.5 (Ov -135 | Un +110) 82.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 106.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Miles Sanders (PHI) 9.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 63.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 84.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Josh Jacobs (LV) 57.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110) 76.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Mark Ingram (HOU) 10.5 (Ov -140 | Un +105) 41.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120) 48.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
James Conner (ARI) 13.5 (Ov -125 | Un -105) 53.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 63.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Leonard Fournette (TB) 15.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 62.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 96.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)

The highest rushing total of the week belongs to the Titans’ Derrick Henry. Sportsbooks are listing his over/under at 128.5 when he takes on the Chiefs in Week 7.

Best Rushing Props to Bet for Week 7

1) Cordarrelle Patterson OVER 77.5 Rushing & Receiving Yards (-114); risk 0.5 units

In the Falcons’ last three games, Cordarrelle Patterson is averaging 110.7 rushing and receiving yards per game. In that time, he’s averaging 15 touches per game. Patterson saw some extended work in their last game against the Jets, when he was given 14 carries. This marked the first time this season he received more carries than backfield mate Mike Davis.

Simply put, Patterson is an absolute weapon. I suspect Atlanta spent their bye week figuring out how to get him more involved in the offense. The Dolphins defense will not have an answer for Patterson on Sunday.

NFL Receiving Props

Player Receptions Receiving Yards Longest Reception
Ja’Marr Chase (CIN) 4.5 (Ov -145 | Un +110) 71.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 26.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120)
Tee Higgins (CIN) 4.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 55.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110) 21.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120)
Tyler Boyd (CIN) 4.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 40.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110) 17.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Mark Andrews (BAL) 4.5 (Ov -150 | Un +115) 60.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 21.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110)
Marquise Brown (BAL) 4.5 (Ov +100 | Un -140) 58.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 23.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120)
Davante Adams (GB) 7.5 (Ov -135 | Un +100) 95.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 26.5 (Ov -125 | Un -105)
Calvin Ridley (ATL) 73.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 24.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110)
Kyle Pitts (ATL) 4.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 48.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110) 19.5 (Ov -125 | Un -105)
Mike Gesicki (MIA) 42.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 18.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Corey Davis (NYJ) 3.5 (Ov -165 | Un +125) 53.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 20.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120)
Jamison Crowder (NYJ) 4.5 (Ov +110 | Un -145) 51.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120) 24.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120)
Jakobi Meyers (NE) 5.5 (Ov +120 | Un -160) 60.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 22.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Nelson Agholor (NE) 2.5 (Ov -165 | Un +125) 34.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 20.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
DJ Moore (CAR) 6.5 (Ov -105 | Un -125) 77.5 (Ov -113 | Un -113) 24.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120)
Robby Anderson (CAR) 4.5 (Ov +115 | Un -155) 45.5 (Ov -120 | Un -115) 18.5 (Ov -125 | Un -105)
Travis Kelce (KC) 6.5 (Ov -135 | Un +110) 83.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120) 24.5 (Ov -105 | Un -125)
Tyreek Hill (KC) 6.5 (Ov -145 | Un +110) 85.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 25.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110)
Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET) 4.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 46.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 18.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
T.J. Hockenson (DET) 4.5 (Ov -140 | Un +105) 48.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 18.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Cooper Kupp (LAR) 7.5 (Ov -105 | Un -125) 95.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 28.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120)
Robert Woods (LAR) 5.5 (Ov +110 | Un -150) 64.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 23.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
DeVonta Smith (PHI) 4.5 (Ov -130 | Un +100) 58.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 22.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120)
Quez Watkins (PHI) 2.5 (Ov -130 | Un -105) 41.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 19.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Darren Waller (LV) 5.5 (Ov -105 | Un -125) 62.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 21.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Henry Ruggs III (LV) 2.5 (Ov -180 | Un +135) 48.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 24.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Hunter Renfrow (LV) 4.5 (Ov -160 | Un +120) 58.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 22.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120)
Brandin Cooks (HOU) 5.5 (Ov -135 | Un +100) 69.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 23.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
AJ Green (ARI) 3.5 (Ov +120 | Un -155) 40.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 19.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
DeAndre Hopkins (ARI) 5.5 (Ov -150 | Un +110) 70.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 23.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Allen Robinson II (CHI) 4.5 (Ov +115 | Un -150) 54.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120) 21.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120)
Darnell Mooney (CHI) 4.5 (Ov +105 | Un -135) 51.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 20.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120)
Chris Godwin (TB) 5.5 (Ov -155 | Un +120) 71.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 23.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Mike Evans (TB) 4.5 (Ov -130 | Un +100) 67.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 24.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110)

Davante Adams and Cooper Kupp are tied for the highest receiving total in Week 7 at 95.5. The next closest is Tyreek Hill at 85.5.

Best Receiving Props to Bet for Week 7

1) DJ Moore OVER 77.5 Receiving Yards (-113); risk 0.5 units

DJ Moore did not play his best game in Week 6 against the Vikings. He had a couple bad drops, one of them coming in the endzone. It was the second week in a row Moore posted an underwhelming total, but still managed 73 yards on five receptions.

In the first four weeks of the season, Moore had at least 79 receiving yards in each game and averaged 99.5 per game. With Carolina starting to get a little desperate—they have now dropped three straight games—and a game against the Giants scheduled in Week 7, I love the Panthers to feed their best player—CMC is still out, to be clear.

Touchdown Props

Team Odds to Score 1st TD Odds to Score Any TD
Joe Mixon (CIN) +900 +140
 Ja’Marr Chase (CIN) +1000 +170
Tee Higgins (CIN) +1300 +175
Lamar Jackson (BAL) +850 +125
Devonta Freeman (BAL) +1000 +140
Marquise Brown (BAL) +1000 +140
Antonio Gibson (WAS) +1000 +130
J.D. McKissic (WAS) +1000 +130
Terry McLaurin (WAS) +1200 +175
Davante Adams (GB) +550 -165
Aaron Jones (GB) +600 -140
Allen Lazard (GB) +1400 +210
Calvin Ridley (ATL) +800 +115
Mike Davis (ATL) +1000 +160
Cordarrelle Patterson (ATL) +1000 +150
Myles Gaskin (MIA) +1200 +190
DeVante Parker (MIA) +1200 +180
Jaylen Waddle (MIA) +1200 +175
Michael Carter (NYJ) +1000 +190
Corey Davis (NYJ) +1200 +225
Jamison Crowder (NYJ) +1300 +230
Damien Harris (NE) +600 -110
Jakobi Meyers (NE) +900 +150
Hunter Henry (NE) +1100 +175
Chuba Hubbard (CAR) +600 -145
DJ Moore (CAR) +750 +145
Robby Anderson (CAR) +1100 +230
Devontae Booker (NYG) +650 +140
Sterling Shepard (NYG) +1000 +200
Darius Slayton (NYG) +1000 +200
Tyreek Hill (KC) +650 -150
Travis Kelce (KC) +650 -150
Darrel Williams (KC) +850 -105
Derrick Henry (TEN) +500 -225
AJ Brown (TEN) +1200 +140
Julio Jones (TEN) +1800 +200
D’Andre Swift (DET) +1000 +130
T.J. Hockenson (DET) +1400 +200
Kalif Raymond (DET) +1800 +270
Darrell Henderson (LAR) +450 -215
Cooper Kupp (LAR) +550 -150
Robert Woods (LAR) +850 +100
Jalen Hurts (PHI) +850 +150
Miles Sanders (PHI) +900 +130
Devonta Smith (PHI) +1000 +140
Darren Waller (LV) +700 -105
Josh Jacobs (LV) +850 +120
Henry Ruggs III (LV) +900 +125
Brandin Cooks (HOU) +1500 +225
Mark Ingram (HOU) +1800 +260
Nico Collins (HOU) +2500 +350
James Conner (ARI) +550 -140
DeAndre Hopkins (ARI) +650 -125
Kyler Murray (ARI) +750 -105
Khalil Herbert (CHI) +1400 +200
Allen Robinson II (CHI) +1400 +200
Damien Williams (CHI) +1500 +225
Leonard Fournette (TB) +600 -120
Mike Evans (TB) +650 -115
Chris Godwin (TB) +750 +110

Derrick Henry has the best odds to score a touchdown in Week 7 at -225. Rams running back Darrell Henderson is a close second at -215. It’s Henderson who has the best odds to score his game’s first touchdown, though, at +450.

Anytime Touchdown Picks for Week 7

Here’s who I like to find the end zone and why:

  1. Ja’Marr Chase anytime touchdown (+170): Chase has a touchdown in four of six games this season. He only has one in his last three, though, which is (partially) why we’re getting this price. He takes on the Ravens in Week 7, a game where Cincinnati could find themselves in a negative game script. (0.33 units)
  2. Jaylen Waddle anytime touchdown (+175): Waddle found the endzone twice last week, and faces a Falcons defense that has allowed 11 passing touchdowns in just five games. These odds are as short as +140 at other sportsbooks. (0.33 units)
  3. Ryan Tannehill anytime touchdown (+350): Tannehill has two rushing touchdowns this season, one of which came last week. As Derrick Henry continues picking up steam, defenses will sell out to stop him in the red zone. Tannehill will make defenses pay for this with his legs. (0.25 units)
  4. Jalen Hurts anytime touchdown (+150): Hurts has four rushing touchdowns in his last two games and sees a Raiders defense on Sunday that has allowed seven rushing touchdowns in six games. This price is as short as +120 elsewhere. (0.33 units)
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