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Week 6 NFL Props – Best Player Props to Bet for Sunday, October 17

Matt McEwan

by Matt McEwan in NFL Football

Oct 15, 2021 · 10:26 PM PDT

Justin Herbert pumped reaction
Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert (10) reacts after the team scores a touchdown during an NFL football game against the Las Vegas Raiders Monday, Oct. 4, 2021, in Inglewood, Calif. (AP Photo/Kyusung Gong)
  • NFL player props for Week 6 are now available at online sports betting sites
  • There are eight player props we’re highlighting for Sunday
  • Get our best prop bets below

Can you believe we’ve already made it to the bye weeks of the 2021 NFL season?! Week 6 sees four teams—Atlanta, New Orleans, New York Jets, and San Francisco—on bye, limiting the number of player props sportsbooks will be putting out for Sunday.

We still have 12 games going on October 17, providing plenty of opportunity for the books to set some bad lines. We’ve been making the books pay the last two weeks, going 9-5 to win 3.95 units. Last week was the lesser of the two, only going 4-3 to win 1.45 units.

You’ll find the NFL player props for Week 6 broken into sections below, with our best prop bets for each included.

Passing | Rushing | Receiving | Touchdown Props

NFL Passing Props

Quarterback Completions Passing Yards Passing TDs
Tua Tagovailoa (MIA) 20.5 (Ov -105 | Un -130) 236.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 1.5 (Ov +115 | Un -155)
Trevor Lawrence (JAX) 20.5 (Ov +105 | Un -140) 234.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 1.5 (Ov +115 | Un -150)
Justin Herbert (LAC) 25.5 (Ov +100 | Un -130) 290.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 1.5 (Ov -235 | Un +170)
Lamar Jackson (BAL) 19.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 230.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 1.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110)
Sam Darnold (CAR) 22.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110) 259.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 1.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110)
Aaron Rodgers (GB) 23.5 (Ov +100 | Un -135) 259.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 1.5 (Ov -220 | Un +160)
Justin Fields (CHI) 17.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110) 195.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 1.5 (Ov +195 | Un -270)
Joe Burrow (CIN) 23.5 (Ov -130 | Un -105) 279.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 1.5 (Ov -215 | Un +160)
Jared Goff (DET) 24.5 (Ov -130 | Un +100) 255.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 1.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120)
Davis Mills (HOU) 20.5 (Ov -105 | Un -125) 217.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 1.5 (Ov +175 | Un +175)
Carson Wentz (IND) 20.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120) 249.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 1.5 (Ov -155 | Un +120)
Matt Stafford (LAR) 24.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120) 284.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 2.5 (Ov +155 | Un -215)
Daniel Jones (NYG) 232.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 1.5 (Ov +125 | Un -170)
Patrick Mahomes (KC) 27.5 (Ov +105 | Un -140) 309.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 2.5 (Ov -130 | Un -105)
Taylor Heinicke (WAS) 22.5 (Ov -125 | Un -105) 260.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 1.5 (Ov -130 | Un +100)
Kyler Murray (ARI) 22.5 (Ov -125 | Un -105) 258.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 1.5 (Ov -130 | Un +100)
Baker Mayfield (CLE) 20.5 (Ov -130 | Un +100) 235.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 1.5 (Ov -105 | Un -125)
Derek Carr (LV) 267.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 1.5 (Ov -140 | Un +105)
Teddy Bridgewater (DEN) 248.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 1.5 (Ov -145 | Un +110)
Dak Prescott (DAL) 23.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 274.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 1.5 (Ov -205 | Un +150)
Mac Jones (NE) 25.5 (Ov -135 | Un +100) 272.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 1.5 (Ov -140 | Un +105)

All props as of October 16.

Looking to the Sunday games, excluding Sunday Night Football, the quarterback with the highest passing total is Patrick Mahomes at 309.5. The lowest is Justin Fields’ 195.5 for his matchup with the Packers.

 

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Best Passing Props to Bet for Week 6

1) Lamar Jackson OVER 230.5 Passing Yards (-115); risk 0.5 units

Lamar Jackson is averaging 303.8 passing yards per game through the first five weeks of the 2021 season. This average is being inflated a bit by the 442-yard performance Jackson posted last week, when he played most of the game from behind against the Colts.

However, Jackson has surpassed this total in every game this season, and has been crushing this total since the Ravens moved away from Ty’Son Williams at running back, essentially putting the entire offense on their quarterback’s shoulders.

The line is so low because the Chargers rank seventh against the pass, and have only let Patrick Mahomes and Baker Mayfield go over 230 yards through the air. Jackson is just a different breed, though. If he can’t find a receiver open from the pocket, he uses his legs to buy them more time to get open.

Plus, I like LA to put up some points and force the Ravens into a shootout—the sportsbooks do too, setting the Chargers vs Ravens total at 51.

Jackson’s passing line is as high as 234.5 at other sportsbooks. I’m pouncing on it at 230.5 at DraftKings before it starts moving.

2) Justin Herbert OVER 25.5 Completions (+100); risk 0.5 units

I’m sticking in the same game with my other passing prop, and this is another line we’ve seen the quarterback consistently hit the over on this season. Justin Herbert is averaging 27.8 completions per game through Week 5, and his lowest number of completions in any game was 25. He has gone over 25 in each of the other four.

After seeing the Raiders, Chiefs, and Colts all shred Baltimore’s secondary for 409, 343, and 390 yards, respectively, I like the odds of LA opting to attack through the air on Sunday.

But with Mike Williams not 100% healthy, the Chargers are likely to see fewer big plays, needing to take the short to intermediate passes. (This obviously means more completions for Herbert.) This line is as high as 26.5 elsewhere with -114 odds on the over.

NFL Rushing Props

Player Rush Attempts Rush Yards Rushing + Receiving Yards
Myles Gaskin (MIA) 46.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110) 75.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
James Robinson (JAX) 16.5 (Ov +100 | Un -135) 71.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 91.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Austin Ekeler (LAC) 13.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 57.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 107.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Lamar Jackson (BAL) 11.5 (Ov +100 | Un -135) 70.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Chuba Hubbard (CAR) 16.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120) 69.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 94.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Aaron Jones (GB) 14.5 (Ov +100 | Un -135) 61.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 85.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Mark Ingram (HOU) 9.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110) 33.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 40.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Jonathan Taylor (IND) 15.5 (Ov -130 | Un -105) 80.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 100.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Darrell Henderson (LAR) 16.5 (Ov -140 | Un +105) 76.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 95.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Devontae Booker (NYG) 14.5 (Ov -105 | Un -125) 46.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120) 74.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Darrel Williams (KC) 11.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110) 48.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 68.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Antonio Gibson (WAS) 16.5 (Ov -105 | Un -125) 70.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 90.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
James Conner (ARI) 10.5 (Ov -125 | Un -105) 39.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110) 48.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Melvin Gordon III (DEN) 11.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 46.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 63.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110)
Ezekiel Elliott (DAL) 78.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120) 94.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)

With Derrick Henry not playing until Monday night, the highest rushing total for Sunday is just 80.5, which is set for Jonathan Taylor. The Colts take on the lowly Texans in Week 6.

Best Rushing Props to Bet for Week 6

1) James Robinson OVER 71.5 Rushing Yards (-115); risk 1 unit

There’s no coach in the NFL more desperate for a win than Urban Meyer. Not only did Meyer make himself into a distraction earlier in the season, but his Jaguars now own the second-longest losing streak in the Super Bowl era, and it appears his offense is holding back one of the best QB prospects we’ve seen since John Elway.

What do desperate coaches do? They lean on their strengths. In this case, that’s handing the ball off to James Robinson. The second-year back has received 15, 18, and 18 carries over the last three weeks, and has turned them into 88, 78, and 149 rushing yards. That’s an average of 6.2 yards per attempt over the last three weeks, and is averaging 5.8 for the season.

The Dolphins have allowed at least 121 rushing yards each game this season, and, outside of the Colts, haven’t really faced anyone with a very good ground game. Miami doesn’t have the offense to force Jacksonville into a negative game script and the spread is only Dolphins -3. This line is as high as 73.5 at other sportsbooks too.

2) Darrell Henderson OVER 75.5 Rushing Yards (-120); risk 0.5 units

With a longer week to rest, thanks to playing on Thursday Night Football in Week 5, Darrell Henderson should be getting much closer to 100% following a rib injury that kept him from playing Week 3. But the Rams obviously felt Henderson was healthy enough to give 14 and 17 carries in his two games since returning.

Henderson has turned those carries into 171 rushing yards, good for 5.5 yards per carry, surpassing 75 yards in each game. LA gets the Giants, who have allowed 4.7 yards per carry (fifth-worst in the NFL) this season, in Week 6.

I like the Rams to be playing with a comfortable lead for most of this one, and Henderson getting ample opportunity to gash this bad run defense.

NFL Receiving Props

Player Receptions Receiving Yards Longest Reception
Jaylen Waddle (MIA) 4.5 (Ov -105 | Un -130) 54.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 21.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Mike Gesicki (MIA) 3.5 (Ov -155 | Un +115) 43.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 18.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Laviska Shenault (JAX) 3.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120) 40.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 18.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Marvin Jones (JAX) 4.5 (Ov +115 | Un -150) 55.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 22.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Keenan Allen (LAC) 75.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 23.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Mark Andrews (BAL) 4.5 (Ov -165 | Un +125) 62.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120) 22.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Marquise Brown (BAL) 4.5 (Ov -125 | Un -105) 62.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 25.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120)
DJ Moore (CAR) 6.5 (Ov +115 | Un -155) 79.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 25.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110)
Robby Anderson (CAR) 3.5 (Ov -125 | Un -105) 42.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 18.5 (Ov -125 | Un -105)
Davante Adams (GB) 7.5 (Ov -135 | Un +100) 96.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 27.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120)
Randall Cobb (GB) 2.5 (Ov -165 | Un +125) 34.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 17.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120)
Allen Robinson II (CHI) 4.5 (Ov +125 | Un -165) 50.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120) 20.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120)
Cole Kmet (CHI) 2.5 (Ov -135 | Un +100) 24.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 13.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Ja’Marr Chase (CIN) 5.5 (Ov +100 | Un -130) 74.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 26.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120)
Tee Higgins (CIN) 4.5 (Ov -130 | Un +100) 60.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110) 22.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Tyler Boyd (CIN) 4.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110) 48.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 19.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET) 4.5 (Ov -145 | Un +110) 52.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 19.5 (Ov -125 | Un -105)
Kalif Raymond (DET) 3.5 (Ov +100 | Un -130) 40.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 19.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Brandin Cooks (HOU) 5.5 (Ov +110 | Un -145) 67.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 23.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110)
Cooper Kupp (LAR) 6.5 (Ov -145 | Un +110) 84.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 25.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Robert Woods (LAR) 5.5 (Ov +100 | Un -130) 62.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 21.5 (Ov -125 | Un -105)
Kadarius Toney (NYG) 49.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Sterling Shepard (NYG) 55.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 21.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110)
Travis Kelce (KC) 6.5 (Ov -145 | Un +110) 84.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 24.5 (Ov -105 | Un -125)
Tyreek Hill (KC) 6.5 (Ov +120 | Un -160) 83.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 26.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Terry McLaurin (WAS) 73.5 (Ov -115 | Un -110)
Ricky Seals-Jones (WAS) 3.5 (Ov -125 | Un -105) 38.5 (Ov -110 | Un -115) 17.5 (Ov -110 | Un -115)
AJ Green (ARI) 3.5 (Ov +105 | Un -140) 36.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 19.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
DeAndre Hopkins (ARI) 5.5 (Ov -150 | Un +110) 70.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 24.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120)
Odell Beckham Jr. (CLE) 3.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120) 47.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 20.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Darren Waller (LV) 5.5 (Ov +100 | Un -135) 59.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 20.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Henry Ruggs III (LV) 2.5 (Ov -135 | Un +105) 45.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 24.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110)
Hunter Renfrow (LV) 4.5 (Ov -160 | Un +120) 52.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 19.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110)
Courtland Sutton (DEN) 4.5 (Ov -145 | Un +110) 63.5 (Ov -125 | Un -105) 23.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Noah Fant (DEN) 4.5 (Ov +110 | Un -145) 43.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110) 18.5 (Ov -105 | Un -125)
Tim Patrick (DEN) 4.5 (Ov +105 | Un -140) 50.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 20.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110)
Amari Cooper (DAL) 4.5 (Ov -160 | Un +120) 62.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 23.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120)
CeeDee Lamb (DAL) 4.5 (Ov -165 | Un +125) 66.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 24.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Jakobi Meyers (NE) 5.5 (Ov +110 | Un -145) 61.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 21.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110)
Nelson Agholor (NE) 3.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120) 41.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 19.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120)

The highest receiving total of Week 6 belongs to Davante Adams, which is set at 96.5. Travis Kelce and Cooper Kupp are tied for the second-highest at 84.5.

Best Receiving Props to Bet for Week 6

1) Kadarius Toney OVER 49.5 Receiving Yards (-115); risk 1 unit

I only have one receiving prop I’m betting on Sunday, but it’s one I really like. The Giants have finally unleashed rookie Kadarius Toney, as the Florida product has seen 21 targets over the last two weeks. Putting the ball in Toney’s hands has paid off for the Giants, with games of 78 and 189 receiving yards.

The 20th-overall pick has flashed every bit of athleticism and explosiveness we saw from him in college (and maybe more?).

With Kenny Golladay and Saquon Barkley both out of the lineup, Toney becomes the clear focal point of an offense that will likely play from behind most of the day. The Giants are nine-point home dogs against the Rams in Week 6. When they start to fall behind, they’ll do everything they can give Toney the chance to get them back into the game.

Touchdown Props

Team Odds to Score 1st TD Odds to Score Any TD
Myles Gaskin (MIA) +800 +110
Jaylen Waddle (MIA) +1000 +140
Preston Williams (MIA) +1100 +150
James Robinson (JAX) +650 -115
Marvin Jones (JAX) +1200 +175
Laviska Shenault (JAX) +1500 +225
Austin Ekeler (LAC) +700 -125
Keenan Allen (LAC) +850 +105
Mike Williams (LAC) +850 +105
Lamar Jackson (BAL) +750 -110
Mark Andrews (BAL) +900 +110
Latavius Murray (BAL) +1000 +140
Dalvin Cook (MIN) +500 -150
Justin Jefferson (MIN) +850 +125
Adam Thielen (MIN) +900 +140
Chuba Hubbard (CAR) +800 +120
DJ Moore (CAR) +800 +115
Sam Darnold (CAR) +1300 +210
Davante Adams (GB) +550 -140
Aaron Jones (GB) +700 +105
Randall Cobb (GB) +1200 +210
Khalil Herbert (CHI) +900 +125
Justin Fields (CHI) +1200 +210
Allen Robinson II (CHI) +1200 +210
Joe Mixon (CIN) +700 -105
 Ja’Marr Chase (CIN) +750 +105
Tee Higgins (CIN) +850 +125
D’Andre Swift (DET) +1000 +140
Jamaal Williams (DET) +1200 +190
T.J. Hockenson (DET) +1200 +175
Brandin Cooks (HOU) +1300 +225
Mark Ingram (HOU) +1400 +260
Chris Conley (HOU) +2200 +400
Jonathan Taylor (IND) +450 -150
Michael Pittman (IND) +850 +140
Zach Pascal (IND) +1200 +200
Darrell Henderson (LAR) +550 -140
Cooper Kupp (LAR) +550 -140
Robert Woods (LAR) +800 +110
Devontae Booker (NYG) +1000 +140
Kadarius Toney (NYG) +1400 +210
Sterling Shepard (NYG) +1600 +240
Tyreek Hill (KC) +650 -150
Travis Kelce (KC) +650 -150
Darrel Williams (KC) +850 +105
Antonio Gibson (WAS) +900 +105
Terry McLaurin (WAS) +1000 +125
Ricky Seals-Jones (WAS) +1800 +250
DeAndre Hopkins (ARI) +850 +125
Chase Edmonds (ARI) +1000 +155
James Conner (ARI) +1100 +180
Kyler Murray (ARI) +1100 +165
Kareem Hunt (CLE) +550 -150
Odell Beckham Jr (CLE) +900 +145
Demetric Felton (CLE) +1100 +175
Josh Jacobs (LV) +850 +140
Darren Waller (LV) +850 +130
Henry Ruggs III (LV) +1400 +225
Melvin Gordon (DEN) +850 +130
Noah Fant (DEN) +850 +130
Javonte Wiliams (DEN) +900 +150
Ezekiel Elliott  (DAL) +650 -125
CeeDee Lamb (DAL) +850 +110
Amari Cooper (DAL) +1000 +130
Damien Harris (NE) +1000 +130
Rhamondre Stevenson (NE) +1000 +130
Jakobi Meyers (NE) +1300 +180

Dalvin Cook, Jonathan Taylor, Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill, and Kareem Hunt are all tied for the best odds to score a touchdown in Week 6. It’s Taylor, though, who has the best odds to score his games first touchdown with +450 odds.

Anytime Touchdown Picks for Week 6

Here’s who I like to find the end zone and why:

  1. James Robinson anytime touchdown (-115): I’m double-dipping on the Jags RB this week. Robinson has scored four touchdowns over the last three weeks, recording at least one in each game. Jacksonville should find their way to the red zone frequently against a bad Dolphins defense. (0.5 units)
  2. Davante Adams anytime touchdown (-140): Adams has scored a touchdown in six of his last eight games against the Bears, finding the endzone in both games last year. Adams has only scored in two games this season, but has seen a ridiculous 18, 11, and 16 targets over the last three weeks. With that type of opportunity, I like Adams to continue being a Bear killer. (0.5 units)
  3. Kyler Murray anytime touchdown (+165): Murray found the endzone in each of the Cardinals’ first three games this season, but has been kept out the last two. Against a very good Browns defense, specifically a very good pass-rush, Murray is going to need to use his legs early and often. I like the odds of one of those scrambles resulting in six points. (0.33 units)
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