Blues Still Listed as Favorites vs Stars After Dallas Ties Series 2-2

• Dallas evened the best-of-seven with a dominant 4-2 victory against the Blues in Game 4
• Stars goalie Ben Bishop made 27 saves and continued his strong postseason play
• What’s the best bet to make after Game 4?

In the Stanley Cup playoffs, momentum can shift with each game in a best-of-seven series. Such has been the case in Dallas vs  St. Louis, as the teams have traded wins in the first four games of the series.

The series price has shifted right along with the momentum (or lack thereof). St. Louis became heavy favorites after winning Game 3, but an impressive 4-2 win for Dallas in Game 4 has brought the odds much closer to even. St. Louis is still favored and will play two of the final three at home (if necessary).

Blues vs Stars Updated Series Price

Odds taken on May 2nd, 2019.

Splitting-Up the Top Line Paid Dividends for Dallas

Playing desperate hockey, Dallas was in danger of going down 3-1 in Game 4. When they fell behind 1-0 early in the game, it looked like the writing may be on the wall.  But the Stars would dominate the last 50 minutes of the game to keep their Stanley Cup flame burning brightly.

Dallas coach Jim Montgomery broke up his top line of Jamie Benn, Tyler Seguin and Alexander Radulov putting Seguin, Jason Dickinson and Mats Zuccarello together while Roope Hintz centered Benn and Radulov.

The Seguin line piled up five points in Game 4, while the Hintz/Benn/Radulov combo had four of its own while handing the Blues their first road loss of the postseason.

Blues Binnington Lost His Cool

St Louis looked frustrated in Game 4, particularly rookie goalie Jordan Binnington. who was given two minor penalties at the end of the 2nd period. First, Binnington took exception when Jamie Benn poked him with his stick. Then, as he headed off the ice for the intermission, he slashed Stars goalie Ben Bishop.

Will Blues’ Berube Make the Right Lineup Changes to Win Game 5?

St Louis coach Craig Berube effectively tweaked his lineup in the playoffs, as well. Since taking over as coach from Mike Yeo in November 2018, he has been a big part of the Blues’ turnaround as they won 30 of their final 45 games.

The Best Bet

The underlying numbers say that St. Louis is a stronger team. They finished considerably higher than Dallas in both Fenwick % (52.10 vs 48.54) and goal difference (+24 vs +8), and were a much better bet at home (24-15-2) than Dallas was on the road (198-18-4).

Ben Bishop gives Dallas the edge in net, but his home/road splits show that he’s a little more comfortable in Big D. His home stats were Vezina worthy (1.90 GAA, .937 SV%, 6 shutouts) while his road stats were merely excellent (2.09 GAA, .931 SV%, 1 shutout).

With home-ice advantage in two of the final three, the Blues are the safer bet.