Capitals Now -240 to Win the Metro; Any Value on Hurricanes, Penguins, or Islanders to Win the Division?

• Washington has won four consecutive Metro Division titles
• They have an NHL-best 53 points, including a staggering 15-3-1 record on the road
• The Capitals’ closest competitors are the New York Islanders, who are seven points back with four games in hand

Here’s a statement that need not have any analysis attached to it: the Washington Capitals are very, very good.

With an NHL-best 53 points, lethal special-teams units, the Norris Trophy front-runner, and a Rocket Richard Trophy candidate, the Capitals are well on their way to their 12th trip to the playoffs in the past 13 seasons.

The question, then, is less about if they will make it and more about how — can they stave off a few worthy foes in the division race? Washington is the clear-cut favorite to win the Metro Division in the latest NHL division odds, but there are other teams worth considering at this stage.

2020 Metro Division Title Odds

Odds taken Dec. 16

Current Standings

Washington is at least seven points clear of all its Metro Division competitors, though the Islanders (46 points) have four games in hand. The Penguins and Hurricanes (42 points each) both have two games in hand, as well.

The Capitals still play the Penguins four times, the Islanders three times, and the Hurricanes three times, so there’s plenty of opportunity for change.

A Closer Look At The Juggernauts

Washington has a well-established core that understands the ups and downs of a long season and possesses the skill and experience to thrive as winter thaws to spring.

The captain, Alex Ovechkin, has 21 goals (third in the NHL). Ovechkin, a 34-year-old who might just be the greatest goal scorer ever, has been the NHL goal leader in six of the previous seven seasons. You need to score to win, and scoring is easier with Ovechkin on your team.

675 career goals for Alex Ovechkin (@ovi8).

Just let that sink in… figuratively. pic.twitter.com/wLyyG9g4AR

— NHL (@NHL) November 30, 2019

On the blue line, John Carlson has been playing out of his mind. The Norris frontrunner has an astounding 45 points in 35 games (14 points clear of the next-highest defenseman). He has averaged 51 points the past six seasons, which is quite solid for a defenseman — but this season, he’s been off the charts.

John Carlson's (@JohnCarlson74) campaign for the Norris Trophy continues with another great week! 👏 pic.twitter.com/O3sKtg4M9m

— NHL (@NHL) December 9, 2019

So, where’s the weakness? Perhaps goaltending, where starter Braden Holtby (.909 save percentage, 2.82 GAA) is performing just below a league-average clip.

Luck Is On Their Side

The Capitals have been a bit lucky this year, at least by the judgement of PDO, a statistic that combines shooting percentage and save percentage. The average for each team is 100 percent, but the Capitals currently sit ninth with a 101.3 PDO.

The Islanders, for what it’s worth, have a 102.7 PDO (tied for second in the NHL).

Penchant For Possession

Something to like about the Penguins and Hurricanes is their ability to dominate puck possession and shot attempts. In even-strength Corsi for, Carolina ranks first (54.3 percent) and Pittsburgh ranks fourth (53.3 percent).

Teams that shoot more put themselves in position to score more, so this is an encouraging stat for the Islanders and Penguins. What’s additionally encouraging for the Penguins is the progress of injured star Sidney Crosby, who is back to skating on the ice.

Sidney Crosby has skated for the past six days. We still do not have a timetable for his return.

Coach Sullivan: "He's making progress in his rehab process. We're encouraged by where he's at. As he gets closer, we'll update you." pic.twitter.com/a8E8EfLB5w

— Pittsburgh Penguins (@penguins) December 16, 2019

Decision Time

Let’s get real: the Capitals are heavy favorites to win their fifth-straight division title for a reason. They have a sizable points lead, they have studs on offense and defense, and they have a track record to back them up.

Among the competitors, the Penguins (+800) offer interesting value with Crosby expected back fairly soon. And certainly the Islanders (+400) are worth consideration because they’re within striking distance. But it’s best to stick with Washington.

Pick: Washington Capitals (-245)