Leafs vs Panthers Game 4 Picks, Predictions & Starting Goalies (May 11)

• The Panthers are -192 moneyline favorites over the Leafs in Game 4 of their second-round playoff series
• Anthony Stolarz will miss his third consecutive game for Toronto
• See my Leafs vs Panthers Game 4 picks and predictions, below, plus starting goalies

When it comes to the Leafs vs Panthers second round series, water is going to eventually find its level. Florida has significantly outplayed Toronto at even strength through three games, but needed an OT winner in Game 3 just to climb back in the series. I’m predicting they square things up in the NHL playoff bracket tonight, and online sportsbooks agree.

Puck drop for Game 4 is scheduled for 7:30 pm ET at Amerant Bank Arena, in Sunrise, FL, with TBS and truTV providing the broadcast coverage.

Leafs vs Panthers Game 4 Odds

The Panthers are currently -192 moneyline favorites, with the Leafs coming back as +160 underdogs. Florida is getting +130 odds to cover the 1.5 goal puck line, while the total sits at 6.5.

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Per the NHL public betting trends, nearly 71% of the money tonight is backing Toronto on the moneyline. I think that’s a fool’s errand, so keep reading to find out why.

Leafs vs Panthers Picks and Prediction

• Florida Panthers 60-Min Line (-125)

My favorite pick for tonight’s matchup is the Panthers 60-min line at -125 odds. At 5-on-5, this series has been completely one-sided. Florida has dominated puck possession, and has produced nearly twice as many expected goals as Toronto.

Some shaky goaltending from Sergei Bobrovsky has opened the floodgates for the Leafs, but I’m betting on a bounce back performance from him.

The Panthers have won 56% of the overall minutes through three games, and have produced 16 more high-danger chances than their opponent at even strength. They’ve capitalized on only 12.5% of those opportunities, nearly 5% lower than their regular season average. That signals they’re due for some positive regression, and hopefully some more production from their biggest stars.

TOR vs FLA: 5-vs-5 Advanced Stats

Sam Reinhart, Sam Bennett, and Matthew Tkachuk have just two points apiece in this series. That’s despite combining to create 59 scoring chances. If Florida is going to repeat in the Stanley Cup odds, the trio needs to step up and I’m banking on that happening tonight.

As for Toronto, they’re being outplayed for the second consecutive series. Their powerplay bailed them out in Round 1, while they’ve capitalized on weak goaltending through three games of this series. The Leafs boast a 14% shooting percentage against the Panthers, which is about 3% higher than their season long mark. They’ve also scored on 21% of their 5 on 5 high danger chances, a rate that shouldn’t be sustainable.

Leafs vs Panthers Starting Goalies

That’s especially true if we expect the real Bobrovsky to show up tonight. The 36-year-old has a 2.94 GAA and .875 save percentage this postseason, down from 2.33 and .906 during last year’s Cup run. He ranks sixth among remaining goalies in those categories this year, and he’s far too talented to continue to underwhelm.

Joseph Woll vs Sergei Bobrovsky Playoff Stats

Another reason I’m backing Florida tonight is because Anthony Stolarz will sit again. The 31-year-old still isn’t skating after suffering an injury in Game 1. That means another night of Joseph Woll, who’s been very beatable in the Toronto net. Woll has posted a 4.00 GAA and .869 save percentage through 2+ games. That’s a major downgrade from Stolarz, who’s 2.19 GAA in the opening round was one of the best of any netminder.

One final note supporting the Panthers, is their prowess on home ice. Florida’s 27 home wins were tied for second most in the East, while they posted a +27 goal differential in their own barn during the regular season.