Lightning vs Sabres Prediction, Odds & Wednesday NHL Picks
By Jordan Tomiyama in NHL Hockey
Published:
- The Buffalo Sabres host the Tampa Bay Lightning for Wednesday’s Atlantic Division matchup at KeyBank Center
- Tampa Bay is coming off a 4-3 loss in Winnipeg after Brayden Point left in the first period
- See below for my Lightning vs Sabres picks, odds, and betting splits
The Tampa Bay Lightning (11-4-2) head to Buffalo to face the Sabres (8-6-3) on Wednesday night, with both teams coming off a loss. The Bolts dropped a 4-3 decision to the Jets on Sunday, a game Point left in the first period.
Even with that loss, Tampa Bay has 24 points through 17 games and a 6-2-2 record over its last 10. Buffalo sits on 19 points and is 5-3-2 across that same stretch.
Puck drop is set for 7:00 pm ET at KeyBank Center, with TNT, truTV, and HBO Max carrying the national broadcast. Below is how I’m playing it, plus the latest market prices.
Lightning vs Sabres Prediction and Picks
- Pick: Over 6.5 goals
My favorite Lightning vs Sabres pick is on the game total. Tampa Bay has scored 63 goals through 17 games, an average of 3.71 per night, and Lightning games are producing 6.82 combined goals on average.
Buffalo’s games haven’t been far behind at 6.29 total goals per contest. The Sabres have scored 50 and allowed 57, and their goaltending hasn’t bailed them out. Buffalo’s team save percentage sits at .879, while Tampa Bay’s is even lower at .876.
The trends point the same way. Sportradar’s pregame trends show the Over has cashed in in each of the Lightning’s last six road games and in each of Buffalo’s last five underdog games. It’s also hit in four of the last five head-to-head meetings.
Special teams add more fuel. Tampa Bay is killing just 72.9% of its penalties, and Buffalo is even worse at 71.2%.
The Over 6.5 contract is trading at 52¢ on Kalshi, which implies about a 52% chance. With Nikita Kucherov and Tage Thompson leading two attacks facing leaky defenses, I’m happy to take that position.
I’m also keeping two Sabres skaters on my watchlist. Zach Benson has six assists in Buffalo’s past five games and 13 through 17 on the season. I’d check his assists line and Rasmus Dahlin’s points line when player prices are available. Neither is an official play, but both fit a high-event script.
Lightning vs Sabres Betting Splits
Sportradar’s moneyline splits show a big gap between tickets and money. Tampa Bay has drawn 89% of the moneyline bets, but Buffalo holds 44% of the handle compared to 56% for the Lightning.
Lightning vs Sabres Odds
Kalshi prices as of 12:14 p.m. ET on Nov. 11. Compare NHL odds before puck drop.
The Lightning are favored, with their YES contract at 55¢ (roughly a 55% implied probability) compared to 46¢ for Buffalo. A moneyline purchase needs Tampa Bay to win; the Over can still cash if Buffalo wins 4-3.
On the puck line, Buffalo +1.5 trades at 68¢, while Tampa Bay winning by two or more costs 33¢. The Under 6.5 sits at 49¢, just below the Over.
Lightning vs Sabres Projected Starting Goalies
Neither starter has been confirmed. Andrei Vasilevskiy is projected for Tampa Bay and owns an 8-4-1 record with a 2.85 GAA and .883 save percentage in 13 games. Backup Dennis Hildeby is 3-0-1 with an .880 save percentage.
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen is the projected starter for Buffalo. He’s 5-3-3 with a 3.27 GAA and .878 save percentage across 11 games. Colten Ellis has played seven games, going 3-3-0 with an .884 save percentage and one shutout.
How Brayden Point’s Injury Affects the Total
Point left Sunday’s game in Winnipeg after six shifts and did not return. He had five goals and 11 assists through 17 games before Wednesday. Losing a center who helps set up a top-scoring line would matter for this total, so check Tampa Bay’s lineup at warmups.
The Over doesn’t depend on Tampa Bay scoring five. Buffalo can get this game to seven by making the Lightning chase. Tage Thompson has nine points in his last five games, including five goals, while Kucherov has seven points in Tampa Bay’s last five. Those are the two sticks I’ll watch most closely if the game is tied heading into the third.
Jordan has worked in sports media for the last seven years, writing articles, managing social media, and covering sporting events for various media outlets. Jordan's work focuses on NBA, WNBA, college basketball, and the NHL.
