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Opening Leafs vs Bruins Odds, Series Preview & Prediction

Brady Trettenero

by Brady Trettenero in NHL Hockey

Updated Apr 17, 2024 · 10:49 AM PDT

Boston Bruins left wing Brad Marchand skates against Toronto Maple Leafs defenseman Morgan Rielly
Nov 2, 2023; Boston, Massachusetts, USA; Boston Bruins left wing Brad Marchand (63) skates against Toronto Maple Leafs defenseman Morgan Rielly (44) during the third period at the TD Garden. Mandatory Credit: Brian Fluharty-USA TODAY Sports
  • The Boston Bruins and Toronto Maple Leafs meet in Round 1 of the NHL Playoffs
  • The Round 1 NHL odds favor the Bruins to continue their dominance of Toronto
  • Read below for Maple Leafs vs Bruins series odds, preview and prediction

The Toronto Maple Leafs and Boston Bruins will review their rivalry in the 2024 Stanley Cup Playoffs. The first-round matchup was finalized in the NHL Playoff Bracket Tuesday night after the Panthers defeated Toronto to clinch the Atlantic Division.

The Bruins have opened as slight favorites over the Maple Leafs in the Round 1 NHL odds. Will David Pastrnak and the B’s continue their dominance of Toronto in the postseason?

Maple Leafs vs Bruins Odds

Team Odds
Boston Bruins -120
Toronto Maple Leafs +100

In the Maple Leafs vs Bruins series odds, Boston is a slight -120 moneyline favorite, giving them a 54.5 percent implied win probability.


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Odds as of April 16, 2024, at FanDuel Sportsbook. Claim the FanDuel promo code to bet on Leafs vs Bruins. If you’re already registered at FanDuel, check out the best online betting apps

Bruins vs Leafs History

These two teams are no strangers to one another, having gone toe-to-toe in the loaded Atlantic Division over the past decade. The Bruins have dominated the rivalry in recent years, winning their last three playoff series against the Leafs dating back to 2013.

Season Result Notes
2023-24 Bruins won season series 4-0 Bruins won 4-1 in Toronto on Mar 4 and 4-1 in Boston on Mar 7
2022-23 Bruins won season series 3-1 Bruins won last 3 meetings
2021-22 Bruins won season series 3-0 All 3 Bruins wins were by 1 goal
2019-20 Season series tied 1-1 Only 2 meetings due to shortened season
2018-19 Bruins won playoff series 4-3 Bruins trailed series 3-2 before winning last 2 games
2017-18 Bruins won playoff series 4-3 Bruins won Game 7 by a score of 7-4
2013-14 to 2016-17 Bruins won 11 of 16 regular season games Leafs did not make playoffs in this span
2012-13 Bruins won playoff series 4-3 Bruins overcame 4-1 deficit in Game 7 to win in OT
1933 to 1959 Leafs won 5 of 8 playoff series Leafs and Bruins were frequent playoff rivals

The Bruins have also won seven straight games overall vs the Leafs, with the Leafs’ last win coming in November 2022. Historically, Boston has won 170 of the 277 all-time meetings, with Toronto winning 107.

Can Leafs Get Over the Hump?

The Toronto Maple Leafs have had an impressive 2023-24 regular season, led by their dynamic core of Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, William Nylander, and John Tavares. Matthews has been a goal-scoring machine, potting an incredible 69 goals in 80 games while also leading the team with 107 points.

While Auston Matthews is the heartbeat of the Toronto offense, his supporting cast isn’t slacking. Nylander is enjoying a career year with 40 goals and 97 points, while Marner has dished out a team-high 58 assists to go along with 26 goals for 85 points in just 68 games.

Offense is never an area of concern for Toronto, however. It’s their defense that will make bettors hesitant to bet on them in the Stanley Cup odds. The Leafs have allowed 255 goals against, ranking 14th in the league. Goaltending has been inconsistent, with the team’s .897 save percentage placing 23rd overall.

Special teams are a mixed bag for Toronto. Their power play is clicking at 24.3%, good for 7th in the NHL. However, the penalty kill is struggling, ranking just 23rd at 76.9%. The Leafs have been a disciplined team though, on pace to finish with the 7th fewest penalty minutes.

Despite their well-documented regular-season success, the big question remains: can the Leafs finally break through in the playoffs? They ended their 19-year series win drought by defeating the Lightning in the first round last year, but then fell to the Panthers in five games in the second round.

Bruins Seek Playoff Retribution

The Boston Bruins have been a force to be reckoned with this season, despite losing key players like Patrice Bergeron and David Krejci to retirement in the offseason. With a record of 47-19-15 and 109 points, the Bruins sit the Atlantic Division and are poised for a deep playoff run.

Leading the charge for Boston is none other than superstar winger David Pastrnak, who has been on a tear with 47 goals and 62 assists for 109 points in 80 games played. Pastrnak’s elite scoring ability and dynamic play have made him a top contender in the Hart Trophy odds this season.

Other key contributors include Brad Marchand (29 goals, 38 assists), Charlie Coyle (25 goals, 35 assists), and defenseman Charlie McAvoy (12 goals, 35 assists). The B’s rank middle-of-the-pack in goals per game (3.21) and power-play percentage (22.0%).

In net, the Bruins have once again relied on their stellar goaltending tandem of Linus Ullmark and Jeremy Swayman. While Ullmark hasn’t quite matched his Vezina-winning numbers from last season, he’s still been solid with a 2.30 GAA and .926 save percentage.

However, it’s been Swayman who has stolen the show. He ranks second in the NHL in even-strength save percentage (.945) and leads the league in power-play save percentage (.971). He’s a primary reason Boston is seventh overall in goals against per game (2.70).

Last year, the Bruins were surprisingly eliminated in the first round by the Florida Panthers after posting the best regular-season record in NHL history. They’ll be looking to avoid a similar fate this time around and make a deep run for the Stanley Cup.

Leafs vs Bruins Prediction

The Bruins are going to be ultra-motivated after what happened to them last postseason. They are rightfully favored in this series, as they hold several matchup advantages, particularly defensively.

Leafs vs Bruins Head-to-Head Stats

0-4 Head-To-Head 4-0
46-25-10 NHL Regular Season Record 47-20-15
3.65 (11th) Goals For/GP 3.21 (14th)
3.15 (13th) Goals Against/GP 2.70 (5th)
24.4% (7th) Power Play 22% 14th)
76.0% (23rd) Penalty Kill 82.5% (7th)
50.96% (15th) Corsi Percentage (5v5) 47% (24th)

Our primary concerns for Toronto, including defense and goaltending, are still valid in 2024. Joseph Woll is inexperienced, while Ilya Samsonov has been struggling. Meanwhile, on the Boston side, you won’t find a more reliable goalie tandem than Swayman and Ullmark.

Boston understands the style of play required to defeat Toronto, as they’ve eliminated the Maple Leafs in the first round in their last three postseason meetings. Furthermore, they swept the 2023-24 regular season series, including commanding 4-1 victories in the two most recent meetings.

TOR vs BOS Series Pick:

  • Bruins ML (-120)


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