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Panthers vs Lightning Game 3 Odds, Picks and Predictions

Robert Duff

by Robert Duff in NHL Hockey

May 20, 2022 · 6:30 PM PDT

Florida Panthers vs Tampa Bay Lightning
May 19, 2022; Sunrise, Florida, USA; Tampa Bay Lightning center Ross Colton (79) celebrates after scoring the winning goal during the third period against the Florida Panthers in game two of the second round of the 2022 Stanley Cup Playoffs at FLA Live Arena. Mandatory Credit: Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports
  • The Florida Panthers are slight -115 away favorites over the Tampa Bay Lightning in Game 3 of their Stanley Cup Eastern Conference semifinal series on Sunday, May 22
  • Defending Cup champions Tampa Bay lead the best-of-seven series 2-0
  • All of the Panthers vs Lightning best bets, odds, picks and predictions are assessed in the story below

Down 2-0 in the series, as they travel to Tampa Bay to face the Lightning in Game 3 of their Stanley Cup Eastern Conference semifinal, the best bet for the Florida Panthers might be on history repeating itself.

Last season, when these two clubs met in the opening playoff round, Tampa Bay also won Games 1 and 2 at Florida. The Panthers rallied to take Game 3 on the road.

Oddsmakers are backing a repeat performance. It’s the Panthers that are set as slim -115 away favorites to win Game 3. Tampa Bay is 8-1 straight up in the the club’s last nine playoff home games.

Panthers vs Lightning Odds

Team Puck Line Total Moneyline
Florida Panthers -1.5 (+205) O 6.5 (+100) -115
Tampa Bay Lightning +1.5 (-250) U 6.5 (-120) -105

Odds as of May 20th at Caesars Sportsbook.

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Puck drop is slated for 1:30pm ET on Sunday, May 22 at Amalie Arena. TNT will be providing the broadcast.

Panthers vs Lightning Betting Trends

The NHL betting lines show the Panthers, at their current moneyline odds of -115, are assigned an implied probability of victory of 53.49%.

In the NHL betting trends, the public is staying with Florida. There’s 58% of the bets placed against the spread on the Panthers at -1.5. Meanwhile. the moneyline splits show 58% of the bets are also on the Panthers at -115 odds. Despite a 2-1 score in Game 2, 84% of the public bets are on the Over (6.5) for Game 3.

Ross Colton’s Game 2 winner at 19:56 of the third period was only the seventh-latest, game-deciding, regulation-time goal in Stanley Cup history. It was the fifth goal of the playoffs for Lightning forward Colton.

Tampa Bay’s Nikita Kucherov (7-14-21) figured in a game-winning goal in the NHL playoffs for the 21st time. Only Pittsburgh’s Sidney Crosby (25) has done this more often among active players.

Panthers vs Lightning Recent Results

Date Home-Away Moneyline Puck Line Over/Under
11/13/2021 Tampa Bay 3 Florida 2 (OT) TB FLA Under
12/30/2021 Florida 9 Tampa Bay 3 FLA FLA Over
4/24/2022 Florida 4 Tampa Bay 8 TB TB Over
5/17/2022 Florida 1 Tampa Bay 4 TB TB Under
5/19/2021 Florida 1 Tampa Bay 2 TB TB Under

Florida led the NHL in goals per game during the regular season. The Panthers scored 4.11 goals per game. However, in the playoffs they are ranking 12th out of 16 teams at 2.75 gpg. Florida has two goals in two games against the Lightning.

Special teams are burying the Panthers in the playoffs. Florida is 0-for-25 on the power play. The Panthers are also a dismal 66.7% on the penalty kill. That’s playing with fire against a Tampa Bay power play that’s clicking at 26.2%.

Across the leading sportsbooks, Tampa Bay is the #2 pick in the Stanley Cup odds at +425. Florida is at a betting line of +900.

Florida vs Tampa Bay Injury Report

Florida coach Andrew Brunette is confirming that forward Mason Marchment (lower-body) is out for Games 3 and 4 of this series. Marchment hasn’t played since Game 4 of the opening round against Washington. Defenseman Markus Nutivaara (lower-body) is out for the Panthers.

Tampa Bay forwards Brandon Hagel (lower-body) and Brayden Point (lower-body) are both listed as questionable for Game 3. Defenseman Brent Seabrook (shoulder) is out.

Vasilevskiy Dominant In Round 2

Since his Stanley Cup debut in 2015, Tampa Bay goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy shows a 14-3 record in 19 appearances during the Second Round of the playoffs. He’s showing a 1.91 goals-against average, a .934 save percentage and one shutout in Round 2 play.

The Lightning goaltender has never suffered more than one loss in any Second Round series.

Panthers vs Lightning Projected Starting Goalies

Team Goalie Record SV% GAA
Panthers Sergei Bobrovsky 4-4 .906 2.86
Lightning Andrei Vasilevskiy 6-3 .915 2.60

Panthers goalie Sergei Bobrovskiy lost consecutive decisions for just the third time since Dec. 29. Since opening 4-0 against Tampa Bay in the playoffs, Bobrovsky is 1-4 against the Lightning over his last five postseason games.

Bobrovsky led the NHL this season with 39 wins. However, he’s 6-12 in his last 18 playoff decisions.

Lightning vs Panthers Game 3 Prediction

When a Stanley cup champion leads a playoff series 2-0, they are 68-3 all-time.  If Florida is going to make a series of this, the Panthers need to straighten out what was the NHL’s #5  power play (24.4%) during the regular season.

Tampa Bay has won three in a row from Florida. That’s the longest streak by the Lightning over the Panthers since a six-game run in 2018-19. But Florida is 3-3 straight up in the last six games between the two teams played at Amalie Arena.

 Pick: Florida Panthers ML  (-115)

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