VGK’s Lehner Takes Over as Conn Smythe Favorite With MacKinnon’s Avs Sputtering

• Vegas goalie Robin Lehner (+900) has replaced Nathan MacKinnon as the favorite to win the Conn Smythe Trophy
• One reason why Lehner is favored is that his Golden Knights have the best odds to win the 2020 Stanley Cup
• Is Lehner a good bet for the Smythe?

Robin Lehner is now the favorite at DraftKings in the odds to win the Conn Smythe Trophy for playoff MVP. The list looks significantly different than it did when the second round began last weekend.

The Vegas goalie’s rise to favorite status can be explained by the Golden Knights’ status as the favorite to win the Cup and Lehner’s numbers.

2020 Conn Smythe Trophy Winner Odds

Odds as of Aug. 26.

Even after giving up four goals in a  5-2 loss to Vancouver in Game 2, Lehner is still 6-2 with a 2.34 goals-against average in the playoffs.

Counting three regular-season wins, Lehner is now 9-2 since joining the Golden Knights through a trade with the Chicago Blackhawks.

Why Lehner May Not Be a Good Bet

Lehner isn’t really the Golden Knights’ No. 1 goalie. He’s playing because he is the hot goalie. What that means is that the true No. 1 goalie Marc-Andre Fleury could be reinserted at any time.

Because the Golden Knights lost Game 2 to Vancouver, Fleury could start Game 3.  Fleury is a future Hall of Famer with many memorable playoff performances on his resume. He has three Stanley Cup championship rings and, two years ago, he took the Golden Knights to the Stanley Cup finals.

If he gets back into the lineup, he may not give up the net.  Writers are not going to give Conn Smythe votes to a goalie who splits time.

Back to right now hockey: Vegas Golden Knights coach Peter DeBoer won't say who's starting in Game 3 vs. Canucks tomorrow.

'We've got a plan with our goaltenders. We're not going to go into what it is."

Expects Robin Lehner and Marc-Andre Fleury to each play at some point.

— Stephen Whyno (@SWhyno) August 26, 2020

Decide on a Champion Before Making a Smythe Pick

Only five players have won the Conn Smythe Trophy while playing for a team that didn’t win the Stanley Cup. The last one was Anaheim goalie Jean-Sebastien Giguere in 2003.

It’s unlikely to happen this year. That means don’t bet on anyone unless you believe his team will win.  If you like the Boston Bruins, David Pastrnak is a good bet. But don’t forget about Patrice Bergeron. His reputation as a strong defensive forward as well as quality offensive player will earn him a few more points if Boston wins.

Should the Lightning win,  goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy will probably be a primary reason why.

If the Canucks win Game 3 against Vegas, you might see Canucks joining the list. Nobody is playing better than Elias Pettersson (16 points) or Bo Horvat (eight goals)

Vasilevskiy has to go for the pin next time pic.twitter.com/RzjTys1GPn

— Dimitri Filipovic (@DimFilipovic) August 24, 2020

Still Keep an Eye on MacKinnon

The Avalanche have been overrun by injuries. But if they win Game 3 against Dallas, they have a chance to climb back in the series. The Avs are such a dynamic offensive team and MacKinnon is such a force that you can’t count them completely out.

MacKinnon is the NHL’s most accomplished  star still left in the playoffs. He has magic in his game.

https://twitter.com/TysonNash/status/1298085507985899522

Are There Better Value Bets Than Lehner on Vegas?

If you like the Golden Knights to win it all, there are safer picks than Lehner. Maybe Lehner will hold the net. Maybe he won’t.  But if the Golden Knights do win the Stanley Cup, it’s likely that forward Mark Stone will play a major role

He’s got size, a scoring touch, a big-play history, and 10 points in his first 10 playoff games.

If you like a sleeper, try Alex Tuch (+1300). He’s got six goals and eight points in his first 10 games. He was a 20-goal scorer for the first time this season and his star is on the rise.

Conn Smythe Pick: Mark Stone (+1100)