Odds Heavily Against El Chapo Escaping From Prison After Receiving Life Sentence

• El Chapo has been sentenced to life in prison plus 30 years.
• He’ll be sent to ADX Florence, also known as a Supermax prison.
• Nobody has ever escaped ADX Florence.

It’s been a long, drawn-out journey for the United States to get their hands on Joaquin “El Chapo” Guzman. They finally did and have finally prosecuted him for moving “mountains of cocaine” and now he has been sentenced to life in prison. Will he actually do the time or will he manage to escape?

Odds El Chapo Escapes From Prison

Odds taken July 18.

El Chapo Sentenced To Life In Prison

El Chapo is one of the most famous Mexican drug lords, but on Wednesday, he was sentenced to life in prison plus 30 years. He was also ordered to pay $12.6 billion in forfeiture for both costs of the trial as well as reparations for other damages.

Guzman, who is 62, was convicted in February for each of the 10 counts he faced. That includes engaging in criminal enterprise, drug trafficking, firearms charges and more. Throughout the trial, he was painted as a ruthless kingpin and the leader of the Sinaloa cartel.

He’s been serving time in isolation over the last two and a half years but after being found guilty, he’ll now be sent to a supermax prison in Florence, Colorado.

Guzman Heads To Supermax Facility In Colorado

After being found guilty, El Chapo is heading to the Supermax prison known as ADX Florence, which also holds Dzhokhar Tsarnaev and Ted Kaczynski. It’s viewed as the nation’s most secure penitentiary, built for the worst of the worst.

There are 400 inmates in the prison and most spend 23 hours of the day in a seven-by-12 concrete, soundproof cell. No one has ever escaped this prison, so El Chapo’s odds aren’t great. However, he has managed to escape twice before, so that’s why it’s a possibility.

Guzman Has Escaped Twice Before

One of the reasons this prop is on the board is because El Chapo has managed to escape twice before. However, keep in mind both times were at Mexican prisons.

In 2001, Guzman escaped a prison by hiding in a laundry cart. He then spent 13 years out in hiding. Once he was captured in 2014, he hired people to build a mile-long tunnel directly to his cell. He eventually used it to escape in 2015.

What’s The Best Bet?

The odds on El Chapo escaping have gotten longer as the case has progressed. At this point, he’s at +2500 to escape and at -100000 not to. The reality is that he’s in a position trying to do something that nobody has ever done.

In Mexico, he had much more power because he had more pull. All of his connections were nearby. In the United States, though, a country that’s known for its ruthless prisons, it’s tough to imagine El Chapo will be able to get out.

The other issue is resources. If the US does manage to get his billions, he might not have the financial power to get the help he needs. That’s why he’s such a longshot to escape – especially since the prop is for an escape only for 2019 or 2020.