Upcoming Match-ups

Andrew Yang Favored to Be Next Mayor of New York; No Women Shorter Than +900

Ann Le Grand

by Ann Le Grand in Politics

Jan 8, 2021 · 4:44 PM PST

Andrew Yang speaking
Andrew Yang is the heavy favorite to be the next mayor of NYC in 2021. Photo by Stephen McCarthy/Collision (flickr) [CC License].
  • Odds are out on who will be the next mayor of NYC
  • Andrew Yang is the favorite and the most well-known name on the list
  • Has a woman ever held the city’s mayoral seat?

Though the general election will not take place until November of this year, the outcome of June 22nd’s mayoral primaries and the winner of the Democratic race are said to infer the next victor for New York City’s Mayoral office, a role expected to manage the city’s ongoing pandemic-related struggles, along with its economic fallout and paralleling civic unrest for the next four years.

Shown below are the odds for the upcoming primary election results for New York City’ 110th Mayor, to be decided with a new ranked-choice voting system (explained below).

Odds for NYC Primary Mayoral Election Candidates

Candidate Odds
Andrew Yang +175
Eric Adams +250
Scott Stringer +400
Raymond McGuire +525
Maya Wiley +900
Kathryn Garcia +2000
Carlos Menchaca +5000
Shaun Donovan +5000
Dianne Morales +10000

Odds as of Jan 8, 2021.

The ranked-choice system allows voters to rank their top-five candidates. In the event no one receives a majority of first-place votes on the first tally, the candidate with the fewest votes is eliminated, and those ballots are redistributed based on their second choice. The process is repeated until one candidate has a majority of votes.

The New, the Skilled, the Yang Gang

Of the currently registered candidates, most are Democrats, a reflection of the largely blue city, some of whom come from established and experienced backgrounds, such as former police officer Eric Adams and the city’s comptroller Scott Stringer, who’ve seemingly tried to frame the event as a two-man race.

Others have already held high-ranking positions within current Mayor de Blasio’s administration, including former sanitation commissioner Kathryn Garcia and former lawyer for Mr. de Blasio and former MSNBC political analyst Maya Wiley, both of whom distanced themselves from their former boss promptly after announcing their runs for office.

Others on the list have never run for office, like Citigroup vice chairman Raymond McGuire and former nonprofit executive Dianne Morales.

Further down the board, city councilman Carlos Menchaca and Barack Obama’s housing secretary and budget director Shaun Donovan are nowhere close to the projected front-runner, former Democratic presidential candidate and tech entrepreneur Andrew Yang.

While the city’s mayoral election began shadowed by the presidential election, with spurs still resonating over what’s to come from the 2024 election odds, momentum for the “Yang Gang,” as has been called the self-proclaimed outsider’s support base, has been long underway.

POLITICO cites online surveys targeting Manhattan residents that focus on Yang’s potential candidacy, suggesting his independent stance in the race may allow him to focus on raising funds for the general election whilst circumventing the crowded primary.

No Woman, No Precedent

Still contentious in the polls that hold Yang in a 1-point lead over Adams in likely Democratic primary voters, however, is whether or not they reflect an oversight in their lack of female positioning for their top three. With mainstream media pointing to pollsters fixing past problems and rendering more accurate expectations in recent years, pre-election polls are still just that: pre-determined and, thusly, assumptive.

To this day, a woman has yet to be elected as New York City’s Mayor.

To this day, a woman has yet to be elected as New York City’s Mayor. Though Mr. de Blasio’s time in office saw notable departure in high-level officials who were female, some who worked for his administration have distanced themselves from their former boss — who has been criticized for an array of mishandlings, including his substandard management of pandemic turmoil and social tumult, his ostensibly hostile office environment for women, and not riding the subway enough — and refused to accept his endorsement, gaining them more traction in the press.

Wiley, experienced as former chair of the Civilian Complaint Review Board for NYPD, spoke out against NYPD Commissioner Dermot Shea’s handlings during the Black Lives Matter protests last spring and summer. Her potential to serve as not only the first woman in the seat but also the second person of color in the position, is proving her a valuable candidate at her current odds. Close behind her in chances, Garcia brings with her a record of city government experience, having served as interim chair of NYCHA and purporting to prepare for climate change.

Hailed as one of the city’s most important races in decades, signals point to a triumphant Yang.

Pick: Andrew Yang (+175)

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