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Arizona Senate Election Odds Favor Democrat Mark Kelly Over Republican Challenger

Robert Duff

by Robert Duff in Politics

Aug 4, 2022 · 6:45 PM PDT

Arizona Senate election odds
Sen. Mark Kelly speaks during an opening events for the first Mission for Arizona Coordinated Campaign office on Thursday, April 14, 2022, in Mesa. Mark Kelly
  • Incumbent Democrat Mark Kelly is the -125 favorite to retain his seat as an Arizona Senator during the 2022 midterm election
  • The Republican challenger is set at odds of -110
  • Democrats are currently filling both Arizona Senate seats

Arizona has been going blue of late and the feeling is it’s a shade that oddsmakers believe the state’s voters will continue to embrace come the November US midterm elections.

Former astronaut Mark Kelly won election to the Senate in 2020. He was joining fellow Democrat Kristen Sinema, a winner in 2019. Both Senate seats were previously held by Republicans. However, John McCain died in 2018. Jeff Flake retired from the Senate one year later.

Kelly is up for reelection in November. Oddsmakers are favoring him keeping his spot in the upper house of Congress – albeit not overwhelmingly. Kelly is a -125 favorite to win reelection. The Republican candidate, Blake Masters, is being given odds of -110.

2022 Arizona Senate Election Odds

Party Odds
Democrat -125
Republican -110
Other +5000

Odds from Bet365 as of August 4th.



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Note that the odds quoted above are from Bet365, a UK and European sportsbook which is permitted to offer political futures. This market is not open to US bettors.

Kelly and Sinema are the first Democrats to be representing Arizona in the US Senate since Dennis DeConcini’s retirement in 1995. It’s the first time since 1953 that both Arizona Senators are hailing from the Democratic Party.

At a betting line of -125, Kelly is given an implied probability of victory of 55.56%. Bet $10 on a Kelly victory and if he’s successful, the payout will be $18.00.

The Arizona Senate election will be held on November 8.

Democrats Put Faith In Kelly

Kelly was earning renomination without opposition in the Democratic primary for the Arizona Senate election. He was the winner of a special election for this Senate seat in 2020, replacing the retiring Flake.

Polling is suggesting that Kelly is in good shape to retain his place in the Senate. He’s ahead in every major poll that’s been conducted regarding the outcome of the election. Kelly’s margin of victory ranges anywhere from 5-16%.

According to research conducted by fivethirtyeight.com, on average, Kelly’s lead is 8.6 points. He’s at 50%, while Masters is situated at 41.4%.

His resume is showing Kelly to be a former NASA astronaut and an anti-gun violence advocate. Fundraising is going well for Kelly. He’s already raised $10.4 million over the first half of 2022. The average donation to his campaign is just $32. This is displaying the strong grassroots supports that exists for Kelly.

Opponent Masters Backed By Trump

Joe Biden was carrying Arizona over incumbent Donald Trump by just 0.3% in the 2020 US Presidential election. That apparent support for Trump is showing no sign of waning in the Grand Canyon State.

Masters is much like Kari Lake, Arizona’s Republican candidate for Governor. Both were given endorsements by Trump. Some pundits are wondering whether this is a wise strategic move. After all, Trump was first Republican Presidential candidate to be losing Arizona in 24 years.

Masters is buying into the Trump fallacy that the 2020 Presidential election was rigged. He’s also in favor of a national abortion ban, with no exceptions.

Arizona Senate Election Prediction

Masters was the survivor from a nasty Republican primary that was featuring three candidates. The infighting got downright bitter. Some are questioning whether they’ll be capable of unifying the party in time for the November election.

The Masters camp is seeking to tie Kelly to Biden, whose latest approval rating in Arizona was a disappointing 38%. Kelly, though, is known for garnering strong support from urban areas of Arizona that are the most densely-populated areas of the state. He’s also extremely popular with Latino voters.

Kelly is a very likable candidate and Republicans will be finding that it’s difficult for Masters to unseat him.

Pick: Mark Kelly (Democrat) -125


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