Is Joe Biden Going to Win the Election? Odds Say It’s a Near Certainty
- Democrat challenger Joe Biden is the -207 favorite to win the 2020 US Presidential election
- Those odds equate to a 67.43% implied probability of victory
- Republican incumbent Donald Trump is at odds of +170
No matter the methodology that’s employed to reach an outcome – polls, odds, even social media – it all points overwhelmingly to Joe Biden defeating Donald Trump in the US Presidential election.
Democrat challenger Biden currently is the -207 favorite in the 2020 election odds. Republican incumbent Trump is the +170 underdog.
Those numbers have actually tightened up over the past two weeks. On average across the leading sportsbooks, Biden was the -221 chalk as recently as Oct. 12th.
2020 US Presidential Election Odds
| Candidate | Oct. 25th Odds | Oct. 19th Odds | Oct. 12th Odds | Trending |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Biden | -207 | -166 | -221 | ↓ |
| Donald Trump | +170 | +139 | +184 | ↑ |
| Kamala Harris | +22500 | +14435 | +8200 | ↑ |
| Mike Pence | +52500 | +14435 | +8200 | ↑ |
Odds taken Oct. 27
Election day in the USA is Nov. 3rd. Trump could be the first Republican incumbent to lose the White House since George HW Bush in 1992 and only the second to do so since 1916.
Odds On Biden
At a betting line of -207, that equates to a mathematical probability of 67.43% that Biden will win the election. Based on that ratio, Trump is actually better off in terms of the odds than he was heading into the 2016 vote.
At this stage of the race four years ago, Trump was given just a 16.7% chance of capturing the 2016 Presidential election. This time, he’s being offered almost a one-in-three chance of emerging victorious.
The @FiveThirtyEight presidential election forecast has Joe Biden with an 88 in 100 chance of winning the Electoral College: https://t.co/4QYz1gEJ2b pic.twitter.com/lxutzXBS6j
— ABC News (@ABC) October 27, 2020
Bettors still appear to believe that Trump will pull another rabbit out of his hat on election night. Bookmakers in the United Kingdom are reporting that 53.4% of all election wagers have been placed on a Trump win. Those numbers increase to 61% in Trump’s favor during October, and 64.6% since Oct. 25th.
In 2016, 61% of all Presidential election wagers were placed on a Trump victory.
COVID-19 Is Beating Trump
One trend that’s been apparent throughout the election cycle is that when COVID-19 cases spike, Trump’s reelection numbers hit the skids.
At one point last week, Trump’s chances of winning had jumped to 40%.
With 13 days till the election, Trump could’ve worked on a national testing & tracing policy to combat 223 thousand Covid deaths. Or negotiate an economic stimulus plan. Or release his long-awaited healthcare proposal. Instead, he brainstormed how to get revenge on Lesley Stahl.
— Bryan Behar (@bryanbehar) October 22, 2020
However, the positive bump that showed in Trump’s numbers following the second Presidential debate were quickly turned into a further deficit as COVID-19 cases again surged in the USA over the past week.
With just a week to go until election day and the number of COVID-19 cases across the country reaching record highs, Trump’s boasts of having the virus under control are falling on deaf ears.
Election Polling Leans Heavily To Biden
There are a number of sites out there devoted to analyzing election data, and there isn’t one among them that’s giving Trump much of a chance of being the winner on Nov. 3rd.
The statisticial web page fivethirtyeight.com has run 40,000 election simulations based on all the available polling data. Biden comes out of a winner in 88% of those simulations.
While admitting that Trump would need a big polling error to have the election again fall in his favor, at fivethirtyeight.com, Trump is still given a one-in-six chance of winning the election.
.@Polly_ASI shows @JoeBiden has dropped another nine electoral college votes from the weekend. He still leads 353 to 185. Only need 270 to win. Biden still leads national popular vote by 10 points. https://t.co/Yv8kQn8Iwf #uspoli #uspolitics #Election2020
— Steve Paikin (@spaikin) October 26, 2020
Cal State Fullerton professor Chandrasekhar Putcha, an expert in risk analysis, developed a mathematical model that utilizes polling data to predict the next U.S. president. Putcha is predicting that Biden will win 49.22% of the popular vote and 350 Electoral College votes.
In Canada, Polly Pollster, an artificial intelligence polling device that scrapes public data from social media sites to come to its conclusion, is assessing that Biden has a 92% chance of attaining victory in the Presidental election.
Utilizing this formula, Polly Pollster accurately forecast a Liberal minority government in the most recent Canadian federal election.
An industry veteran, Bob literally taught the course on the history of sports at Elder College. He has worked as a Sports Columnist for Postmedia, appeared as a guest on several radio stations, was the Vice President of the Society For International Hockey Research in Ontario, and written 25 books.
