Odds Trump Resigns/Drops Out of 2020 Election Set at +600
- Former Vice President Joe Biden has a 9.1-point lead over Donald Trump nationally, according to RealClearPolitics
- Biden leads Trump in key battleground states like Wisconsin, North Carolina, Florida and Pennsylvania
- Will Donald Trump bow out of the race before November 1st, 2020, instead of risking a loss?
We’re now inside 100 days until the 2020 Presidential Election. As the COVID-19 pandemic rages on, the incumbent Donald Trump’s chances continue to fade.
Is there a chance that he resigns or drops out of the race altogether? Let’s take a closer look at one of the props among many in the 2020 election odds.
2020 Donald Trump Drop Out Odds
| Will Donald Trump Drop Out Before November 1st, 2020? | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | +600 |
| No | -1200 |
Odds taken July 27th.
Trump’s Polling Numbers in the Tank
One of the main reasons why there is even discussion about Trump dropping out is that his polling numbers are terrible right now. Real Clear Politics, which shows an average of the polls, indicates that Trump is nearly trailing by double-digits nationally.
National polls are not Trump’s big concern, though – he was always a longshot to win the popular vote. The state polls in key battlegrounds are far more worrisome.
There are a number of battleground states that Trump won in 2016 – states like Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania – which would likely have to break his way again if he’s to win. However, he’s trailing in all three. He’s also trailing by 7.8 points in Florida and 4.0 points in traditionally-Republican Arizona.
When states like Iowa and Texas are a question mark, it makes it really hard to find a path for Trump to win. Some polls were wrong in 2016 and it’s possible some could be wrong in 2020, too. However, at this point, he’s going to need almost all of them to be wrong to have a chance.
Debates Will Be Key
We’re not going to see Trump bow out before any of the debates are scheduled as that’s where he’s expected to have an edge. Currently, former Vice President Joe Biden’s strategy is to avoid any type of media or public spotlight because he clearly has some issues with public speaking.
Biden was bounced around at the debates in the Democratic Primary as Kamala Harris and Cory Booker took turns embarrassing him and he had no answers. However, Biden did do better in a head-to-head setting against Bernie Sanders. The issue here is Trump will be very aggressive and if Biden blanks out or looks weak, it could turn this race upside down.
What’s the Best Bet?
At this point, I have a hard time believing Trump will bow out under any circumstances. He has three debates to turn the tide and we’ll see in the coming months what happens with the pandemic. If it does recede and the economy rebounds, he’ll likely enter election day with roughly a 50/50 shot to win.
Another key here is that Trump believes in two main factors that will deliver his win: enthusiasm and the silent majority. It does feel like a lot of Trump supporters don’t want to say they support him because of the negative backlash it will cause. That could help deliver a win for him.
Secondly, the enthusiasm gap is significant. Trump’s supporters will come out and vote for him come hell or high water. As for Biden, few people are really that excited about him – he has lower enthusiasm numbers than Hillary Clinton – and that could be his downfall, as it was hers.
That means that Trump has a shot and he’ll hang in this thing until the end. I wouldn’t be on him bowing out early.
For over 15 years, Dave has been working in mainstream media and sports betting. He hosted a station on Sirius Satellite Radio for four years, and is currently a senior writer for AskMen. He's interviewed hundreds of hundreds of high-profile sports stars like Shaquille O'Neal and Floyd Mayweather.
