Paul Manafort’s Back in the News, What Does That Mean for Trump’s Impeachment Odds?

• Paul Manafort isn’t living up to his Plea Agreement
• There’s also reports that he met with Julian Assange during the 2016 campaign
• What does this all mean for Donald Trump’s impeachment odds.

Former Trump campaign manager and ostrich-skin jacket enthusiast Paul Manafort is back in the news. For one thing, he’s apparently violated his Plea Agreement, and for another, he reportedly met with WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange during the campaign.

Donald Trump Impeachment Odds

For more odds, see our Presidential Impeachment Odds Tracker.

For our money, -180 is still great value, if you can stomach having your bankroll tied up for that long.

Don’t Sign a Plea Agreement You Don’t Intend to Honour

Paul Manafort plead guilty to two conspiracy charges in September, and part of his plea deal was a cooperation agreement.

A big part of a cooperation agreement is that you have to be honest with the prosecutors and the investigators involved. You’re most likely getting years off your sentence, and the government doesn’t just give that away.

Here’s the government’s most recent filing, with regards to that:

Basically, prosecutors are reporting that Manafort hasn’t held up his end of the bargain, and lied to the Special Counsel’s Office and the FBI. Lying to either of those parties is a federal crime in and of itself, but it’s extra bad if you have a plea deal in place. Most prosecutors agree that not having a cooperation agreement in the first place is better than taking one and lying.

Did Paul Manafort Meet With Julian Assange?

There have been a lot of reports (particularly in the Guardian) that Paul Manafort met with Julian Assange at some point. For those trying to keep track of this massive web of conspiracy, that might help prove collusion between the Trump campaign and the DNC emails leak.

For what it’s worth, both WikiLeaks and Manafort are denying that the meeting ever took place:

Remember this day when the Guardian permitted a serial fabricator to totally destroy the paper’s reputation. @WikiLeaks is willing to bet the Guardian a million dollars and its editor’s head that Manafort never met Assange. https://t.co/R2Qn6rLQjn

— WikiLeaks (@wikileaks) November 27, 2018

Neither Manafort nor WikiLeaks (nor Assange, for that matter) are going to be accused of having too much integrity any time soon, and the Guardian is going out on something of a limb here.

It certainly wouldn’t be the first time a news outlet was wrong, but it also wouldn’t be the first time Manafort, Assange, or WikiLeaks were less-than-honest.

What it Means for Paul Manafort

He’s still going to prison, but probably for a bit longer than before. Making False Statements, the crime the government is charging Manafort with here, carries a sentence of up to five years. Add that on to his original sentence, and things start looking pretty bleak.

He could still get a pardon from the President, however, as all his charges are still federal. Since the President is trying to distance himself from Manafort, that’s not exactly likely.

What it Means for Donald Trump

There are those that have high hopes for Robert Mueller’s investigation, but it’s hard to see how anything Mueller does will result in Donald Trump leaving office or going to prison.

Whether or not a sitting President can be indicted is a matter of debate that stretches all the way back to 1787. Presidential Immunity isn’t explicitly laid out in the Consititution, but there are those that believe it’s implicit in the structure of the Constitution.

There’s also impeachment, but as we’ve noted before, you need a majority in the both the House of Representatives and the Senate to make that happen.

Democrats in the House have the majority necessary to pass an impeachment, as they did for Bill Clinton and Andrew Johnson, but that just starts the trial-like Senate impeachment process. Republicans still control the Senate, and will until at least the end of Donald Trump’s first term.