Trump’s Chances to Win Election Down to 21.5% as His Odds Fade to +341 Midday Wednesday
- Joe Biden’s odds to win the 2020 Presidential Election continue to improve as results are counted on Wednesday (Nov. 4th)
- The Democratic nominee was sitting at about +200 late on Election Night
- Biden is a -482 favorite, on average, as of 11:30 am ET today
Between the hours of midnight ET on Election Night and 11:30 am ET on November 4th, Joe Biden went from roughly a +200 underdog (on average) to a -482 favorite in the live election odds. Donald Trump, who was as short as -500 at certain sportsbooks last night, has faded to a +341 longshot.
Converting the live odds to probability (and taking out the vig), the betting market currently gives Biden a 78.5% chance to win the White House with Trump getting the remaining 21.5%
Live Presidential Election Odds and Probability
| Candidate | Live Odds | True Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Joe Biden | -482 | 78.5% |
| Donald Trump | +341 | 21.5% |
Odds as of 11:28 am ET, Nov. 4th.
Biden Takes Lead Under Cover of Night
When most Americans went to sleep on Election Night, Biden was trailing in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, and held a narrow lead in Nevada. He needed to win three of those four to win the election, barring improbable results elsewhere.
With hundreds of thousands more mail-in ballots counted overnight in those key battleground states, Biden surged into the lead in both Michigan and Wisconsin, held onto his lead in Nevada, and is now the betting favorite to win Pennsylvania (despite trailing by a wide margin in the current tally).
This Is Not Over
Democrats who are already celebrating are doing so prematurely – perhaps not as prematurely as Trump’s declaration of victory last night – but still prematurely.
#BREAKING: President Trump declares victory, says he'll go to the Supreme Court: "This is an embarrassment to our country. We were getting ready to win this election. Frankly, we did win this election." #ElectionNight
NOTE: Trump has NOT been declared the victor in the election. pic.twitter.com/OH8ZkfDMuJ
— The Hill (@thehill) November 4, 2020
The margin of victory in some battleground states could be slim enough that the loser is entitled to a (free) recount. Wisconsin’s threshold for an automatic recount is 1%. Pennsylvania’s is 0.5%. Michigan’s is 2,000 votes. Nevada does not have any automatic recount triggers, but the loser can request (and pay for) a recount, and will be refunded if the recount changes the outcome.
Even if no automatic recount is triggered, Trump can request recounts in all of them. He simply has to foot the bill.
If you’re wondering about Wisconsin’s recount rules…
If a candidate comes within 1 percentage point of the winner, the candidate may request a recount. (The threshold was narrowed after Jill Stein's 2016 recount.) There is no trigger for an automatic recount.
— Jessie Opoien (@jessieopie) November 4, 2020
The war in the battleground states is going to continue for days, if not weeks when legal challenges are factored in.
When Will Wagers Be Graded?
One question on most bettors’ minds at this point is when their election wagers will be settled. The short answer is that it is up to the director at each sportsbook. But don’t expect any bets to be graded until there is a concession of some kind or a definitive legal ruling.
In other words, bettors are going to have to be patient.
Sascha was a hockey player in his youth, a lawyer in his capricious mid-20s, and has been with SBD since 2014. He specializes in football, basketball, politics, baseball, and hockey.
