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Trump’s 2020 Presidential Odds Fading; Elizabeth Warren Trending in Right Direction

Robert Duff

by Robert Duff in Politics

Jan 11, 2019 · 8:34 AM PST

A caricature of Elizabeth Warren.
Elizabeth Warren has declared her intention to run for president in 2020. Photo by Donkey Hotey (flickr) [CC License].
  • With the government shutdown lingering, Donald Trump’s odds of winning the U.S. Presidency are decreasing
  • Meanwhile, the numbers on Democrat Elizabeth Warren are improving
  • So far, Warren is the only Democrat to declare her intention to run for President in 2020

The first Democrat to throw her hat into the ring for the 2020 U.S. Presidential election, Senator Elizabeth Warren has quickly made headway in a week’s time according to the odds on who will win the election.

Warren has seen her average odds of becoming the 46th President of the United States drop from +2300 to +1700 across a number of top online sportsbooks in the time since she declared her candidacy.

2020 U.S. Presidential Election Odds

Team Odds
Donald Trump +150
Beto O’Rourke +1000
Kamala Harris +1000
Bernie Sanders +1400
Joe Biden +1400
Elizabeth Warren +1500
Cory Booker +2000
Mike Pence +2000
Hillary Clinton +3000
Kirsten Gillbrand +3000
Oprah Winfrey +3000

If she were to win, Warren would be the first female U.S. President.

Yeah, But is Warren Likable?

Almost immediately, Warren was dogged in the media by questions about whether she was likable enough to capture the Presidency, a similar refrain expressed by opponents of 2016 Democratic Presidential candidate Hillary Clinton.

Warren is much more comfortable speaking on the issues than she is as playing the slag your opponent game of politics, but as Trump proved in 2016, that latter message can enable someone to go all the way to the White House. A Harvard law professor and a Senator from Massachusetts, Warren fits the model of what Trump supporters like to classify as the elite.

Yet at the same time, she’s an ardent critic of the rich and powerful and of the financial institutions that appear to call the shots in American politics. Her message is on point to the common people of America, but in these days of reality TV obsession, can she do the song and dance that seems to be required to get elected?

Has Trump Walled Himself in?

His devotion to his border wall may turn Trump into a political version of Humpty Dumpty, the crumbling of his wall causing him to take a great fall.

While still the clear frontrunner for both the Republican nomination and the Presidential election in 2020, Trump’s odds are beginning to get longer. As his government shutdown continues, not to mention the ongoing Mueller investigation, things could get a lot worse for Trump.

It’s Quite the List

Trump and Vice-President Mike Pence are the only Republican candidates listed among the top 15 contenders to win the Presidency in 2020. Warren currently sits fifth overall among Democratic candidates.

One of those ahead of Warren in the odds in California Senator Kamala Harris, who is expected to declare her candidacy for the Presidency in the near future.

The x-factor in all of this is Beto O’Rourke, who nearly unseated Ted Cruz in the 2018 Texas Senate race. Like former President Barack Obama, O’Rourke is a relative new face capable of capturing the youth vote. Once he enters the fray, all bets figure to be on Beto.

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