Updated Republican Nomination Odds: Trump’s Odds Fading, But Still Leads DeSantis, Ramaswamy
By Sascha Paruk in Politics News
Published:
- The first Republican primary debate has shifted the betting odds to win the 2024 GOP nomination
- Former President Donald Trump continues to lead both the polls and the odds despite missing the debate due to ongoing legal battles
- Both Ron DeSantis and Vivek Ramaswamy saw their Republican nomination odds improve over the past week
Primary season is fast approaching with the Republican Party’s Iowa caucuses now only 140 days away (Jan. 15, 2024). Last Wednesday, the GOP held its first of two primary debates and the two main challengers to former President Donald Trump – Ron DeSantis and Vivek Ramaswamy – both witnessed a boost in the polls and their odds to win the 2024 Republican Party nomination for president.
Republican Nomination Odds 2024
| Candidate | Odds |
|---|---|
| Donald Trump | -280 |
| Vivek Ramaswamy | +500 |
| Ron DeSantis | +700 |
| Tim Scott | +2500 |
| Nikki Haley | +2800 |
| Glenn Youngkin | +2800 |
| Mike Pompeo | +4000 |
| Chris Christie | +4000 |
| Liz Cheney | +5000 |
| Mike Pence | +6500 |
| Tucker Carlson | +6500 |
| Tom Cotton | +8000 |
| Larry Hogan | +8000 |
| Charlie Baker | +8000 |
| Ivanka Trump | +10000 |
| Ted Cruz | +10000 |
| Rand Paul | +10000 |
| Mitt Romney | +10000 |
| Gregg Abbott | +10000 |
| Kristi Noem | +10000 |
| Jared Kushner | +10000 |
| Paul Ryan | +10000 |
| Dan Crenshaw | +10000 |
| Susan Collins | +13000 |
| Matt Gaetz | +15000 |
| Kanye West | +15000 |
| Joshy Hawley | +15000 |
| Marco Rubio | +15000 |
Ramaswamy is now a +500 second-favorite in the Republican nominee odds while DeSantis is close behind at +700. Trump continues to lead the odds at a -280 price tag at DraftKings Sportsbook. Largely seen as a three-person race at this point, no other candidate is shorter than +2500.
Odds as of Aug. 28, 2023, at DraftKings Ontario. Note that US political markets are not open to Americans. But US bettors can still claim a DraftKings promo code to wager on sports.
Ramaswamy Overtakes DeSantis as Second-Favorite in GOP Nomination Odds
Earlier this year, DeSantis was challenging Trump for the mantle of betting favorite. The Florida Governor was sitting at +168 odds in mid-February 2023, while Trump was only narrowly ahead at +123. But DeSantis lost considerable momentum in May when his official campaign launch via Twitter went off the rails.
Folks: We can now all relive Ron DeSantis' humiliating failure to launch! Watch as DeSantis, Elon Musk, and David Sacks struggle to get Twitter Spaces to work in their initial 20+ minute attempt. pic.twitter.com/MyiX1yVKyb
— MeidasTouch (@MeidasTouch) May 24, 2023
By May 30, the 44-year-old’s odds to win the nomination had faded to +255 and he has yet to recapture his previous momentum. He did see a modest improvement in his odds after last week’s debate – from +750 to +700 – but his numbers remain a depressing indication of his campaign’s trajectory.
Vivek Ramaswamy, on the other hand, surged onto the political scene in early 2023 and has continued to gain traction. The 37-year-old businessman has never held elected office but that hasn’t stopped oddsmakers from positioning him as the biggest threat to Trump’s stranglehold on the GOP. Ramaswamy’s odds opened in the neighborhood of +1000 when he first announced his candidacy and have improved two-fold in the interim. He overtook DeSantis as second-favorite in early August and moved from +550 to +500 after the first GOP debate.
Trump Remains Odds-On Favorite in 2024 Republican Nomination Odds
Despite sitting out of the first Republican Party primary debate – and being mired in a deluge of legal trouble – Trump continues to lead the 2024 Republican nomination odds by a considerable margin. When this betting market first opened (shortly after Trump lost the 2020 presidential election to Joe Biden), oddsmakers assumed Trump’s time as a presidential candidate were in the past. He was listed as a +1000 longshot to earn the 2024 GOP nomination, behind the likes of former Vice-President Mike Pence, Nikki Haley, Ted Cruz, Josh Hawley, and even John Kasich.
But Trump’s odds have steadily improved over the past three years, taking over the role of betting favorite by March 2021 and never ceding it back – at least not yet. Between Feb. 2023 and Apr. 2023, his odds improved from +123 to -130 – making him the odds-on favorite with an implied probability well over 50% – and they haven’t dipped back into plus-money since.
Arrested in Atlanta last Thursday on charges of trying to overturn the 2020 election results in the state of Georgia, Trump is doing his best to use his arrest – and subsequent mugshot – as a building block for his 2024 candidacy. Less than a day after the mugshot was released, Trump’s campaign had already posted a litany of themed merchandise to help raise funds.
Trump campaign is selling mugshot merchandise under the brand line of 'Never Surrender'. pic.twitter.com/WyV0vWKS91
— The Spectator Index (@spectatorindex) August 26, 2023
The second Republican Party primary debate is scheduled for Sep. 27 and will air on FOX. Trump has already stated on Twitter that he will not participate.
Trump (+225) narrowly trails incumbent Joe Biden (+160) in the odds to win the 2024 presidential election.
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Managing Editor
Sascha has been working in the sports-betting industry since 2014, and quickly paired his strong writing skills with a burgeoning knowledge of probability and statistics. He holds an undergraduate degree in linguistics and a Juris Doctor from the University of British Columbia.
