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Will President Donald Trump Actually Resign? Odds Say No

Don Aguero

by Don Aguero in Politics News

Updated Mar 27, 2020 · 11:24 AM UTC

Donald Trump at a podium
Donald Trump has had a bumpy presidency. Photo by Gage Skidmore (Wiki Commons).
  • A new betting prop asks: Will Trump resign during his first term?
  • The numbers suggest he will stick around and run for another four years
  • We can’t be sure of anything the President does, but we can make an informed prediction!

The Trump administration has been marred by high profile resignations and firings from the very start.

Michael Flynn was forced to resign as National Security Advisor almost immediately after Trump took office.

Nikki Haley unexpectedly resigned as UN Ambassador in October.

And most recently, Secretary of Defense Jim Mattis handed in a scathing letter of resignation, criticizing his foreign policy. That’s just a small sample of names to have left Trump’s inner circle, and we can be sure there are many more to come.

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But is it reasonable to expect the big man himself to resign?

The odds favor Trump sticking around to finish his first term, but the fact that there are odds on whether he’ll quit is unprecedented in itself.

Odds Donald Trump Resigns In His First Term

Will Donald Trump Resign During His First Term? Odds
Yes +200
No -300

Odds taken 12/27.

Let’s consider the only historical parallel. Richard Nixon, facing almost certain impeachment in the midst of the Watergate scandal, chose to resign rather than allow Congress to determine his fate.

This granted him two things:

  • First, he escaped the embarrassment of being the first and only President to be removed by impeachment
  • And second, he was able to avoid any legal ramifications by having his successor, Gerald Ford, issue him a full and unconditional pardon.

Instead of fighting a seemingly unwinnable battle, Nixon chose to walk.

But Trump is different.

For starters, he seems to have the unconditional support of his base.

He issued a ban on bump stocks and the NRA continued to stand by him. He announced a withdrawal from Syria and received only mild grumblings from hawkish Republicans. And the national debt ballooned under his watch, while self-proclaimed “deficit hawks” voted to pass his tax bill.

Imagine the worst thing Special Counsel Robert Mueller could uncover with the Russia Investigation. Would that be enough to move two-thirds of the Republican-led Senate to remove Trump from office?

Probably not.

When asked about his thoughts on Trump being implicated in two crimes committed by his former attorney, Senator Orrin Hatch replied, “I don’t care.

That pretty much sums up the state of the Republican party. Unless there’s a dramatic shift, Trump has nothing to worry about.

The action on Yes (+200) is spurred by delusion and wishful thinking

When it comes to his legal issues, Trump has a little more to be concerned about.

Michael Cohen, his former attorney, is heading to jail and has cooperated (and perhaps is still cooperating) with the Mueller Investigation. If there are bones, Cohen knows where they’re buried.

It’s unclear whether a sitting President can be indicted, but Trump is definitely vulnerable after he leaves office. Resigning and having his successor pardon him — as Nixon did — is a way to avoid any potential legal issues after he leaves the White House.

But a lot needs to happen before we’re anywhere near that point.

Right now, there’s no reason to believe Trump will resign during his first term. The action on Yes (+200) is spurred by delusion and wishful thinking, and the betting line has been warped because of it.

Take advantage of the skewed odds by picking No (-300).

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