Premier League and League Championship Promotion/Relegation Preview

It’s still too early to say which teams will be promoted and relegated in the Premier League and Football League Championship this season. However, just past the halfway mark in the year, some strong contenders are emerging.

In the EPL, nine squads are within five points of last place in the table. If the season ended today, Hull City (19 points), QPR (19 points), and Leicester (17 points) would be moving down. But there’s reason to think that Crystal Palace (20 points) and Aston Villa (22 points) may give them some reprieve.

In the Championship, three teams have separated themselves from the pack at the top (Bournemouth, Derby, and Ipswich), while four others have done so at the bottom (Leeds, Millwall, Wigan, and Blackpool).

Let’s take a closer look at the promotion/relegation contenders.

Premier League

Leicester: Leicester fans were ecstatic after the team won the Football League Championship last season and earned a spot in the Premier League. But the team is last place in the EPL with 17 points, and they have a -13 goal difference (tied for third-worst). The Foxes needed to turn it up a notch in the top league, but they have done just the opposite. The team still thinks it can save itself from relegation, but 17 points in 21 matches says otherwise.

QPR: The blue and white were also promoted from the Football League Championship this year and are also in grave danger of returning whence they came. If they want to stay among the top teams, the defense needs to improve drastically.  QPR has allowed 37 goals in 21 games (1.7 goals per game, worst in the English Primer League).

Hull City: Many people are surprised Hull City is currently in the relegation zone. The Tigers have talented players, but can’t pick up points at KC Stadium; Hull have a league-worst nine points at home. A better home record in the second half will likely save the team from relegation.

Crystal Palace: Palace has allowed 31 goals this season, third-worst in the EPL. They have been competitive in a lot of matches, but rarely take the full three points. They’re tied with Burnley for the most draws. If any of the bottom three find some form, Palace’s propensity for one point will find them relegated.

Aston Villa:  The Villains are three points above Hull City and have a five-point cushion over Leicester, but they have only scored 11 goals this season and have a -12 goal difference. In reality, Aston Villa have more points than they deserve and are likely to fall in the standings if their play doesn’t improve.

Football League Championship

The Promotion Contenders:

Bournemouth: Bournemouth are on 48 points, tied for first in the league. They have lost only six games this year, and just one in the last ten. The Cherries +28 goal difference is the best in the league, and their 55 goals-for leads the Championship by a wide margin; the high-scoring team looks like a shoe-in for promotion.

Derby: The Rams are tied with Bournemouth on 48 points, but have a lower (though still impressive) +24 goal difference. Derby is solid at both ends of the pitch, scoring 47 goals (second in the league) and conceding just 23 (tied for third in the league). If they make the jump, they’ll be hoping for a better showing than in 2007-08, when they won just one game all season.

Ipswich: Ipswich are currently third in the table with 47 points, just one back of the leaders. Thanks to a 2-0 win over Middlesbrough in late December, the Tractor Boys are three points clear of the Smoggies for the last promotion spot. However, they surrendered second-place to Derby in their last game (a 1-0 defeat at home). The loss to Derby was Ipswhich’s first setback in the last ten games, though, and they still look like a top-three team.

The Relegation Contenders:

Blackpool: Blackpool are far-and-away the worst team in the Championship. They have just 17 points and a -22 goal difference, which is five behind the second-worst team (and 11 behind the third-worst). A spot in League One is being kept warm for the Seasiders.

Millwall: The team with the second-worst goal differential (-17) just happens to be Millwall. The Lions have 23 points – third-last in the league – and have won just once in their last ten games (1-0 over Brighton). Discouragingly, Millwall lost to Blackpool in their last fixture, portending worse things to come.

Leeds: Leeds is currently fourth-last in the league, two points clear of Millwall and five up on second-to-last Wigan. However, like Aston Villa in the Premier League, they have more points than they should. The Whites have a -11 goal difference (third last in the league) and have just one win in their last ten games. They dropped a key home game to Wigan recently, which will come back to haunt them later in the year. We see the Latics leap-frogging both Leeds and Millwall in the table.

(Photo credit: Ben Sutherland [CC BY 2.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0)], via Wikimedia Commons. Photo has been cropped.)