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Formula 1 Belgian Grand Prix Odds & Picks (2023)

Daniel Coyle

by Daniel Coyle in Racing

Updated Jul 25, 2023 · 2:05 PM PDT

McLaren driver Lando Norris
Jun 17, 2023; Montreal, Quebec, CAN; McLaren driver Lando Norris (GBR) races during the third practice session of the Canadian Grand Prix at Circuit Gilles Villeneuve. Mandatory Credit: David Kirouac-USA TODAY Sports
  • Max Verstappen vies for eighth straight win this weekend at the 2023 Belgian Grand Prix
  • Lando Norris sits second on F1 odds following back-to-back second-place finishes
  • Read on for all the Belgian Grand Prix odds, picks, and predictions ahead of Sunday morning’s race at Circuit de Spa-Francorchamps

Max Verstappen aims to build on last weekend’s master class performance at the Hungarian Grand Prix when he vies for a third straight Belgian Grand Prix victory. Verstappen extended his lead atop the F1 Drivers Standings to 110 points over second-place Sergio Perez with his dominating win in Hungary, which also extended his overall win streak to seven races.

Here’s a look at all the odds and trends ahead of the 2023 Belgian Grand Prix on Sunday morning, with race time set for 9:00am ET at Circuit de Spa-Francorchamps.

Odds to Win 2023 Belgian Grand Prix

Driver Odds to Win Odds to Finish Top Three Odds to Finish Top Six Odds to Finish Top Ten
Max Verstappen -360 -550 -700 -900
Lando Norris +900 -150 -500 -750
Sergio Perez +1100 -140 -500 -750
Lewis Hamilton +1400 +140 -500 -650
Oscar Piastri +2200 +260 -300 -650
George Russell +2500 +270 -300 -650
Charles Leclerc +2500 +450 -150 -450
Carlos Sainz Jr. +3500 +550 -105 -400
Fernando Alonso +5000 +550 +100 -350
Lance Stroll +25000 +8000 +800 +110
Valtteri Bottas +30000 +13000 +3000 +240
Pierre Gasly +30000 +13000 +1100 +125
Guanyu Zhou +30000 +13000 +3000 +285
Esteban Ocon +30000 +13000 +1100 +125
Nico Hulkenberg +50000 +20000 +5000 +400
Kevin Magnusson +50000 +20000 +5500 +450
Daniel Ricciardo +50000 +20000 +4000 +400
Alex Albon +50000 +15000 +1000 +110
Yuki Tsunoda +70000 +20000 +4000 +400
Logan Sargent +70000 +25000 +4000 +450

Verstappen is once again perched as massive favorite, with short -360 odds of claiming his 10th victory of the season. He is also pegged as heavy -550 chalk to claim a spot on the podium for the 13th time in as many F1 race appearances. After turning in back-to-back second-place performances for the first time in his Formula 1 career, Lando Norris has finally captured the attention of oddsmakers, who have listed him as a distant +900 second favorite. Sergio Perez closely trails Norris at +1100, while Lewis Hamilton sits as a +1400 bet to take home the checkered flag in Belgium for the fifth time in his career.



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Can McLaren Maintain Momentum?

The McLaren duo of Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri proved that their impressive finishes among the top four in Britain were no fluke with another strong showing last weekend in Hungary. Norris and Piastri claimed the second row in qualifying and leveraged strong starts on their way to second and fifth place, respectively.

Recent upgrades have made all the difference at McLaren, producing a car that is dominant on corners and also maintained impressive pace on the long straightaways in Hungary. With the track at Circuit de Spa-Francorchamps offering similar challenges, and McLaren’s principal rivals (apart from Red Bull) all facing issues, there is no reason to expect Norris and Piastri to let up.

That is reflected in the Belgian Grand Prix odds, where Norris is now perched as an intriguing +900 bet to claim his first ever win, and Piastri has turned heads with +260 odds to reaching the podium. However, the best value may be found in the qualifying odds, where Norris cannot be ignored as a +850 bet to turn in the fastest time.

Belgian Grand Prix Recent Winners

Year Driver Margin of Victory Pole Position Fastest Lap
2022 Max Verstappen – Red Bull Racing 17.841 sec Carlos Sainz Jr. – Ferrari Max Verstappen – Red Bull Racing
2021 Max Verstappen – Red Bull Racing 1.995 sec Max Verstappen – Red Bull Racing None
2020 Lewis Hamilton – Mercedes 8.448 sec Lewis Hamilton – Mercedes Daniel Ricciardo – Renault
2019 Charles Leclerc – Ferrari 0.981 sec Charles Leclerc – Ferrari Sebastian Vettel – Ferrari
2018 Sebastian Vettel – Ferrari 11.061 sec Lewis Hamilton – Mercedes Valtteri Bottas – Mercedes
2017 Lewis Hamilton – Mercedes 2.358 sec Sebastian Vettel – Ferrari Lewis Hamilton – Mercedes
2016 Nico Rosberg – Mercedes 14.113 sec Nico Rosberg – Mercedes Lewis Hamilton – Mercedes
2015 Lewis Hamilton – Mercedes 2.058 sec Lewis Hamilton – Mercedes Nico Rosberg – Mercedes
2014 Daniel Ricciardo – Red Bull-Renault 3.383 sec Nico Rosberg – Mercedes Nico Rosberg – Mercedes

Ferrari Fading Fast

While Red Bull and McLaren soar, it was yet another lost weekend for Ferrari. Still lagging in fourth place in the F1 Constructors Standings, the Prancing Horse managed to get in its own way once again in Hungary. Struggling to stay in the hunt for a podium spot, Charles Leclerc managed to ruin his own hopes by taking a five-second penalty for speeding in the pit lane, and was effectively bounced from contention by a sloppy pit stop that took over nine seconds on his way to seventh place.

Things were no better for Carlos Sainz Jr., who showed little fight in duels with both Sergio Perez and George Russell. Sainz ended up settling for eighth place in his third finish outside the top six in six outings. The 28-year-old Spaniard enjoyed success at this race a year ago, claiming the pole and finishing third. But considering just how uninspired Ferrari has looked this season, there is better value in Sainz as a +400 to not be classified than there is in his -105 odds to finish top six.

The same holds true for Leclerc, who looks ill-equipped to compete on a track like Belgium, and has finished better than sixth just once so far in the European leg of the F1 schedule.

The Picks:

  • Lando Norris fastest qualifier (+850)
  • Carlos Sainz Jr. to not be classified (+400)
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