Goodyear 400 Odds, Predictions, and Picks

• The track too tough to tame takes over with the Goodyear 400 on Sunday, May 8th, 2022
• Several contenders are lurking out there including Ross Chastain, Kyle Larson, and Martin Truex Jr.
• Below are odds and trends ahead of Sunday afternoon’s race.

NASCAR travels down to Darlington, South Carolina for race number 12 of the 2022 season. The race comes from the Darlington Raceway. The odds reflect some of the best and brightest from the 1.366-mile track. Kyle Larson is favored this week with +500 odds in the NASCAR Goodyear 400 odds. It does seem like Hendrick and Gibbs could rumble here with a surprise Chevy or three.

This is one week after the DuraMAX Drydene 400, where Chase Elliott snared his first win of the 2022 NASCAR season on a Monday afternoon jaunt at “The Monster Mile”.

Let’s dig into these Goodyear 400 odds and figure out which drivers are the best bets.

Goodyear 400 Odds

Odds as of May 5th at the Barstool Sportsbook App

Kyle Larson Favorite in Goodyear 400 Odds

NASCAR drivers will run on the 1.366-mile Darlington Raceway when the flag drops for the Sunday afternoon race beginning around 3:00 PM ET. This track banks at a 23-25 degree angle around turns and 2-3 degrees on the straightaways.

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There are few teams that have done well recently on the track because the Spring race was eliminated from 2005-2019. In 2020, two races occurred back to back with a shorter version that came days after the first. Kevin Harvick, Denny Hamlin, and Martin Truex Jr have arguably been the most dominant drivers over the past three seasons. However, in 2021, it was Kyle Larson who led 204 out of the 660 laps. He has finished third or better since 2017 at Darlington.

Currently, Larson stands at +500 odds (+400 at Caesars). Teammate Chase Elliott lists at +800 (+700 at Caesars Sportsbook). Some shorter odds exist on Caesars Sportsbook, but every Hendricks Motorsports Racing driver is +1500 or shorter.

Now, what occurs at the track called “the lady in black” on Sunday afternoon?

Friendly reminder of just how damn good Kyle Larson is at darlington…
3 2nd place finishes in a row, never finished lower than 14 in his career, avg finish of 5.5. He’s well overdue for a win there. What better time then when I’m there this weekend right?? 🙏 pic.twitter.com/N1SPfTEaD9

— KLRaceFan (@5KLNASCARFAN) May 4, 2022

The idea is that Hendrick Motorsports is expected to do well again at Darlington on Sunday. Now, how well remains the question?

Recent Winners

The race had two appearances due to COVID in 2020. The second race was shortened to 500 km. It has not gone into overtime in the three races since its return two years ago.

Can Martin Truex Jr Finally Get One?

Sports bettors have seen Martin Truex Jr remain mostly steady in the top-ten all season. The Joe Gibbs Racing driver still lingers in the NASCAR Cup Series odds and is second in the race odds. Furthermore, though Larson attracts more attention, Truex Jr has led 24.3% of the laps over the past three seasons at Darlington. He arguably could have won three races instead of just the one.

Last year at Darlington, Martin Truex Jr. was the fastest driver late in a run in both races.

Perfect Total Speed Ranking in the spring and was the fastest over the four segments.

— Ryan (@ifantasyrace) May 3, 2022

Now, Truex Jr had the 56 fastest laps last week at Dover and by all rights should have come much closer to winning last week. He stands in seventh place just 82 points behind Chase Elliott. The Joe Gibbs Racing driver, much like Denny Hamlin have led far fewer laps than in 2021.

Goodyear 400 Predictions & Picks

This 1.366-mile track has seen the following happen. There is almost a sort of chaos that is the norm at Darlington. Then, surprise, there’s Ross Chastain.

For those of you in BallyBet states

Chastain is +260 for a T5
– 7 for 11 in T5's this year
– 1 of 2 in T5's at Darlington last yr w/Ganassi
– Darlington one of his best tracks across Cup/XF
– Model says 47.7% T5 rate vs 27.8% implied

— Nick Giffen (@RotoDoc) May 5, 2022

The weather expects to be relatively tranquil on Sunday afternoon with temperatures in the lower 70s. The last thing to keep an eye on is drivers like Kevin Harvick (6 for the last 6 in top-tens) and Denny Hamlin. Their wisdom at Darlington cannot be underestimated.

The stage format is 90-95-108 for laps. Overtime cannot be ruled out because of the Next-Gen car.

Here are our best bets:

• Top Pick: Martin Truex Jr to Win (+700)
• Other Contenders: Kevin Harvick. (+1600), Ross Chastain (+1200), Denny Hamlin (+850), Tyler Reddick (+2000)
• Longshots: Erik Jones (+5000 at Caesars), Chris Buescher (+12500 at Caesars)