NASCAR 2019 O’Reilly Auto Parts 500 Odds & Picks

• The O’Reilly Auto Parts 500 is scheduled for Sunday, March 31st at 3:00 pm EST
• Kevin Harvick has the best average finish position at the Texas Motor Speedway
• Kyle Busch’s 13.00 average driver finish at Texas Motor Speedway is ninth among active drivers

After Brad Keselowski’s win at Martinsville, the NASCAR Monster Cup series shifts to Texas Motor Speedway for the O’Reilly Auto Parts 500 on Sunday, March 31st at 3:00 p.m. ET. Kyle Busch is once again the favorite but is he the best bet to win this race?

2019 O’Reilly Auto Parts 500 Odds

Odds taken 03/27/19.

Bet Busch Again?

Busch has dominated NASCAR’s premier circuit this season, finishing in the top 10 in each of his six starts. That includes a pair of victories and five top 5 results.

.@mmschocolate Race Recap #STP500 ?? https://t.co/lmeDtQE5Aq pic.twitter.com/Msg10egaEX

— Kyle Busch (@KyleBusch) March 25, 2019

In addition to his red-hot start, Busch has had plenty of success in the O’Reilly Auto Parts 500 in particular, including two victories in the last three years. Busch has finished fifth or better in eight of his last 12 appearances overall at Texas Motor Speedway, so he should be in the mix again.

Keselowski for a Top 10

Keselowski has been on fire to start the season. After a somewhat disappointing 12th-place result at the Daytona 500, he picked up his first win of the year in Atlanta right after. Since then, he has a second, a 19th, a third and another win, which came last week at Martinsville.

So, @keselowski … where’s the ? going? pic.twitter.com/xJrQsZeaGg

— NASCAR (@NASCAR) March 25, 2019

Keselowski has never won this race before but he did finish sixth here two years ago in 2016 after recording the fastest lap time in practice. I’m much more inclined to roll with him for a top 5 or top 10 prop this week, though, as he has eight top 10’s at Texas in his last 13 outings.

Does Johnson Have Some Magic in Texas?

Johnson hasn’t won a race in two years now and he hasn’t exactly looked great early on this season. The change at crew chief provided a brief glimmer of hope when he started the year with a win at The Clash and placed ninth at the Daytona 500, but he’s struggled ever since. He has on top 10 in his last five starts.

She’s comfy and ready to race pic.twitter.com/7wdHvr4DKq

— Jimmie Johnson (@JimmieJohnson) March 17, 2019

However, Johnson has an outstanding history at the Texas Motor Speedway, so maybe he could surprise as a sleeper pick in this week’s O’Reilly Auto Parts 500. He won this event in two of the past four years and also finished eighth or better in 10 of his last 16 appearances.

Avoid Truex Jr. to Win Outright

There’s some excitement surrounding Martin Truex Jr. as he’s posted an average finish of 5.6 in his last five starts. However, the wins aren’t there. He has recorded early wins in each of the last two seasons – at California in 2018 and Las Vegas in 2017 – so it’s surprising that he hasn’t reached Victory Lane yet this year.

Decent day. We struggled a little bit to get the handling the way we needed it. Good job by our @SIRIUSXM team to keep working on it. On to Texas. #TeamToyota pic.twitter.com/JbFx9GTbHU

— Martin Truex Jr. (@MartinTruex_Jr) March 24, 2019

However, the flip side of the argument is that he hasn’t delivered a win despite being in contention in the majority of his starts this season. He’s finished either eighth or second in each of his last five starts.

Truex Jr. hasn’t delivered a win despite being in contention in the majority of his starts this season.

My concern is he’s never won at Texas Motor Speedway, so I’m not excited to bet him to win outright again. Maybe he’s a decent option in head-to-head matchups, but I’ll pass betting him to win the O’Reilly Auto Parts 500 outright.