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NASCAR Cup Series Wurth 400 Race at Dover Predictions & Odds 2023

Chris Wassel

by Chris Wassel in Racing

Updated Apr 26, 2023 · 10:31 AM PDT

NASCAR Cup Series driver Martin Truex Jr on the track
Apr 23, 2023; Talladega, Alabama, USA; NASCAR Cup Series driver Martin Truex Jr. (19) at Talladega Superspeedway. Mandatory Credit: Marvin Gentry-USA TODAY Sports
  • The NASCAR hauls up to Delaware for the Wurth 400 from Dover set to run on Sunday, April 30th, 2023
  • The contending favorites include Christopher Bell, William Byron, Chase Elliott, Denny Hamlin, and Kyle Larson
  • Below are the Wurth 400 from Dover predictions, picks, and betting odds ahead of Sunday afternoon’s race

NASCAR travels to Dover, Delaware, for the eleventh race of the 2023 season. Dover Motor Speedway is a 1-mile track with 24-degree turns and 9-degree banks on the straightaways. The race distance totals 400 miles (400 laps). Will the “intermediate” track slow down like last year’ (slowest since 2004)?

This weekend’s race is a week after the GEICO 500 where Kyle Busch gambled on fuel and snagged a 1.1 second win over Ryan Blaney and held off Chris Buescher as well.

The table below lists the complete slate of NASCAR Cup Series odds for the Wurth 400 from Dover (win, podium finish, and top-five finish). Under the table, find the Dover predictions and best bets for this weekend’s chaotic NASCAR action.

Wurth 400 From Dover Odds

Driver Odds to Win Podium Finish Odds  Top Five Odds
Kyle Larson +600 +170 -130
William Byron +650 +185 +110
Chase Elliott +750 +200 +105
Denny Hamlin +900 +250 +120
Christopher Bell +900 +250 +140
Kevin Harvick +1100 +300 +160
Martin Truex Jr. +1200 +300 +140
Alex Bowman +1200 +330 +190
Ross Chastain +1300 +350 +170
Kyle Busch +1600 +450 +170
Tyler Reddick +1700 +450 +225
Joey Logano +2200 +600 +250
Ryan Blaney +2800 +800 +250
Daniel Suarez +3500 +1000 +550
Chris Buescher +3500 +1000 +400
Chase Briscoe +3500 +1000 +450
Brad Keselowski +3500 +1000 +450
Bubba Wallace +4000 +1100 +400
Ty Gibbs +5500 +1400 +600
Ryan Preece +5500 +1500 +650
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. +5000 +1400 +650

Kyle Larson enters this race as a slight +600 favorite. However, do not sleep on William Byron or even Chase Elliott. Both are nearby in the odds and Elliott won the last Spring race in Delaware. That finished on Monday because of rain. Yes, the weather forecast features some rain this weekend too.

NASCAR drivers get around the track on the “Monster Mile”, 120-120-160 stage lap setup when the flag drops for the Sunday afternoon race beginning again around 2:00 pm ET on FOX.



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Odds as of April 26th at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Kyle Larson Altering Between First and Not So Good

Yes, the Hendrick Motorsports Racing driver started as a favorite again at Dover. Now, Larson is either winning races or having issues. He has only four incident-free races on the season. Those results are quite good. After that, it’s a much different story. With how the racing has been (Talladega was fun of chaos), it is hard to trust Larson when he is this short in the odds.

So, the Caesars Sportsbook odds fire in some strange differences. For one, Kyle Larson is only +450. Granted, six drivers are +1000 or shorter there. Yes, Christopher Bell, Denny Hamlin, and Martin Truex Jr are included among that six as well.

Wurth 400 Recent Winners

Year Race Winner Pole Position Most Laps Led
2022 Chase Elliott – Hendrick Motorsports Racing Chris Buescher– RFK Racing Kyle Busch – Joe Gibbs Racing
2021 Alex Bowman – Hendrick Motorsports Racing Martin Truex Jr. – Joe Gibbs Racing Kyle Larson– Hendrick Motorsports Racing
2020 Denny Hamlin – Joe Gibbs Racing Chase Elliott– Hendrick Motorsports Racing Denny Hamlin – Joe Gibbs Racing
2019 Martin Truex Jr. – Joe Gibbs Racing Chase Elliott– Hendrick Motorsports Racing Chase Elliott– Hendrick Motorsports Racing
2018 Kevin Harvick – Stewart-Haas Racing Kyle Larson – Chip Ganassi Racing Kevin Harvick – Stewart-Haas Racing

Springtime in the Rain Drops?

With the Hendrick car winning last year, people forgot how good the Toyota car was especially during this race. Kyle Busch led 103 laps in all but had some awful luck. Busch seems to come close at Dover then problems arise.  As a result, NASCAR Cup Series odds rides with Chevy (first four drivers now) but Christopher Bell, Joey Logano, and even Denny Hamlin are not too far behind. Picking Busch for this week is difficult at best.

Correlation is unique when it comes to Dover. It’s an interesting course where skill is essential. Laps do not quite tick off as fast one thinks they should.

Practice begins Saturday morning with a 45-minute session. Saturday qualifying begins at 11:20 am ET. Maybe.

Wurth 400 from Dover Predictions & Picks

So, Saturday seems inclement weather wise for practice and qualifying. Sunday afternoon could be interesting with a 50-50 chance of showers. Not even wet weather packages will help there. The expectation is for no heavier rains at this time.

Qualifying will be entertaining, Even Ford could snag the pole here. Mild temperatures around 70 will be tempered by a cool and more moist track.

Could Chris Buescher or Brad Keselowski come through as a flier It’s very possible. Look at how good Buescher was in qualifying last year. Anything is possible.

Like we mentioned, watch the weather. Again, this is not a washout but could still carry an impact. Taking a 0.1 unit swing at Martin Truex Jr. is reasonable.

Here are our best bets:

  • Top Pick:  Martin Truex Jr. to Win (+1200)
  • Other Contenders: Kyle Larson (+600), Christopher Bell (+900), Denny Hamlin. (+900), Kevin Harvick (+1100)
  • Longshots:  Brad Keselowski (+3500), Joey Logano (+2200), Chris Buescher (+3500)
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