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GEICO 500 Odds, Picks & Predictions 2023

Chris Wassel

by Chris Wassel in Racing

Updated Apr 19, 2023 · 10:26 PM PDT

NASCAR Cup Series driver Denny Hamlin
Apr 15, 2023; Martinsville, Virginia, USA; NASCAR Cup Series driver Denny Hamlin (11) looks on during qualifying at Martinsville Speedway. Mandatory Credit: John David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports
  • The NASCAR season heads to Alabama for the GEICO 500 at Talladega set to run on Sunday, April 23rd, 2023
  • The contending favorites include Joey Logano, Ryan Blaney, Denny Hamlin, and Chase Elliott
  • Below are the GEICO 500 betting odds and picks ahead of Sunday afternoon’s race

NASCAR heads south to Lincoln, Alabama, for the tenth race of the 2023 season. Talladega Superspeedway is a 2.66-mile super speedway track with 12-degree turns. The race distance totals almost 500miles (188 laps). Will the track of wrecks slow down the race like last year’s version?

This weekend’s race is a week after the NOCO 400 where Kyle Larson did not get bumped out of the running. Yes, Larson found a way to hold off the field and get win number one on the season. Now, Talladega is a track with huge 32-34 degree banks and even a 16.5-degree tri-oval.

The table below lists the complete slate of NASCAR Cup Series odds for the GEICO 500 at Talladega (win, podium finish, and top-five finish). Under the table, find the Talladega predictions and best bets for this weekend’s NASCAR action.

GEICO 500 Odds

Driver Odds to Win Podium Finish Odds  Top Five Odds
Joey Logano +1000 +225 +150
Ryan Blaney +1100 +275 +160
Denny Hamlin +1200 +330 +175
Chase Elliott +1200 +330 +175
William Byron +1400 +400 +200
Ross Chastain +1400 +400 +200
Brad Keselowski +1500 +380 +200
Kyle Busch +1600 +450 +225
Kyle Larson +1800 +500 +250
Christopher Bell +1800 +500 +250
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. +2000 +550 +275
Bubba Wallace +2000 +550 +275
Alex Bowman +2200 +600 +300
Tyler Reddick +2200 +600 +300
Chris Buescher +2200 +600 +300
Austin Cindric +2500 +700 +400
Erik Jones +2800 +800 +500
Daniel Suarez +2800 +800 +500
Austin Dillon +2800 +800 +500
Aric Almirola +2800 +800 +500
Martin Truex Jr. +3000 +850 +550

Joey Logano enters this race as a +1000 favorite to win, followed by Ryan Blaney (+1100) then Denny Hamlin and Chase Elliott at +1200.  This track feels like a centrifuge and those banked turns create their own havoc.

NASCAR drivers start those engines on the 2.66-mile, 60-60-68 stage lap setup when the flag drops for the Sunday afternoon race beginning again around 3:00 pm ET on FOX.

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Odds as of April 18th at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Larson Thrived and Won Last Week, But Not This Week

Yes, Kyle Larson, the Hendrick Motorsports Racing driver, started well, then came back, and won the NOCO 400 in pretty easy fashion. Larson has never won at Talladega but does have a top-five result. Drivers like Chase Elliott have won the race before. This is one of the few tracks where everyone seems to lead a decent number of laps but nothing outrageous.

So, the Caesars Sportsbook odds fire in some subtle differences. For one, Ryan Blaney and Joey Logano are co-favorites at +1000. That breaks down to the two Chevy’s, one Toyota, and two Ford’s. Yes,  Denny Hamlin, William Byron, and Chase Elliott are contenders.

GEICO 500 Recent Winners

Year Race Winner Pole Position Most Laps Led
2022 Ross Chastain – Trackhouse Racing Christopher Bell – Joe Gibbs Racing William Byron – Hendrick Motorsports Racing
2021 Brad Keselowski. – Team Penske Denny Hamlin – Joe Gibbs Racing Denny Hamlin – Joe Gibbs Racing
2020 Ryan Blaney – Team Penske Martin Truex Jr. – Joe Gibbs Racing Ryan Blaney – Team Penske
2019 Chase Elliott – Hendrick Motorsports Racing Austin Dillon – Richard Childress Racing Chase Elliott – Hendrick Motorsports Racing
2018 Joey Logano – Team Penske Kevin Harvick. – Stewart-Haas Racing Joey Logano – Team Penske

What to Expect on Sunday?

With the Ford cars on the prowl early people forgot how good the Toyota cars were in the Spring.  As a result, NASCAR Cup Series odds rides with Ford (first two drivers) but the Chevy’s of Byron and Elliott are right there. Finally, Denny Hamlin has the ability to win this race too.

Correlation is weird at Talladega. It’s a unique superspeedway where experience is vital along with simply avoiding “the big ones.” The last two winners have started outside the top eight. It is often who ends faster who wins and not who starts off quick.

Saturday qualifying expects to start at 10:30 am ET.

GEICO 500 at Talladega Predictions & Picks

So, Saturday may be an issue for qualifying. Sunday afternoon expects to see tranquil and cooler weather. Again, watch that rain on Friday night into Saturday morning as it may be heavy at times.

Qualifying again could be dicey, Expect a three-way battle with Chevy and Toyota potentially having an upper hand late. Cooler temperatures in the 60’s on Sunday will create some Spring weather conditions.

Could this end up like last Spring where Chevy and Toyota ruled the evening as the Ford’s faded late? That is possible. Expect the unexpected however. Chase Elliott could contend but winning seems out of the cards this weekend.

Like we mentioned, the weather could impact qualifying but not race day.

Here are our best bets:

  • Top Pick:  Denny Hamlin to Win (+1200)
  • Other Contenders: William Byron (+1400), Christopher Bell (+1800), Ross Chastain. (+1400), Ryan Blaney (+1100)
  • Longer shots:  Chris Buescher (+2200), Tyler Reddick (+2200), Martin Truex Jr. (+3000)

 

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