- The fourth round of the 2019-20 Coppa Italia is in early December
- Juve are short-priced favorites at +140
- Last season’s winner Lazio are a juicy +1600
The fourth round of the Coppa Italia is not far away and the odds for those games are now open. Unsurprisingly, they heavily favor Juventus, Inter Milan and Napoli but we’re going to look to see if any of the favorites are a good bet or if there better value elsewhere.
Coppa Italia 2019/20 Odds
Odds taken October 30
Last season’s winners Lazio are currently at+1600 while runners-up Atalanta are +1800, so immediately it tells us there is value to be had here. It’s just a question of identifying it.
Worth noting before we start is that the top eight in last season’s Serie A don’t enter the competition until the round-of-16 stage, so the big names will not be featuring in the fourth round but instead will be discovering who their opponents are going to be.
Juve and Inter with Champions League Distraction
Juventus (+140), typically are favorites just as they are favorites to win the Serie A title yet again, but this competition is less clear cut. Traditionally, Juve will use players who are not featuring regularly in either Serie A or the Champions League and so there is always scope for them to come unstuck. Last season they were beaten 3-0 by Atalanta at the quarterfinal stage.
Juve will play the winners of the all-Serie A tie between Udinese and Bologna.
Inter Milan (+325), who are just a point behind leaders Juve in the Serie A table, are in a similar position to the current champions in that they too are not only competing for the Italian league title but are also heavily involved in the Champions League – they currently sit second in Group F. As a result, they will need to manage their squad carefully and will not see this competition as top priority.
Last season they went out to Lazio on penalties at the quarterfinal stage and this season will face the winner of Genoa and Ascoli.
Napoli Slow Starters
Napoli (+450), runners-up in last season’s Serie A, haven’t had the same level of success so far this season on the domestic front and currently sit in sixth, eight points adrift of Juve. They have however enjoyed a good start to their Champions League campaign which included a home win over the current European champions, Liverpool.
They have proved themselves a good cup team and even though they are still in the Champions League, their battling qualities will stand them in good stead here and the fact they are off the pace in Serie A may count in their favor in this cup. They do however face a tricky round -of-16 tie – the winner of Cagliari and Sampdoria.
Outside of the big three, there are some really interesting bets on offer, not least because there is little to suggest that said big three will place too much importance on this competition.
Holders Worth a Look
Last season’s winners Lazio are definitely are worth a look at +1600 not least because they have demonstrated they know what it takes to win this competition. On the basis of their current Serie A position (5th), they look to be stronger than last season and so are more than capable of defending their title if the draw works out in their favor.
In the next round, they take on the winner of the all-Serie B tie between Cremonese and Empoli.
Past Ten Winners of the Coppa Italia
The Best of the Rest
AC Milan, in theory, should be a good bet here, especially at +1000, but a fairly disastrous start to the Serie A season suggests that all is not well behind the scenes. Minus the distraction of European football – they are serving a one-season ban for breaching Financial Fair Play rules – the Coppa Italia should most definitely be on their radar but they will need to, first of all, overcome the winner of Parma vs Frosinone. They are worth keeping an eye on though.
AS Roma are another team whose start to the Serie A season suggests they have improved their squad over the summer. They fall into that category of teams who will just miss out in the mix for the Serie A title, so the Coppa Italia represents for them a genuine chance of silverware. They will also be keen to emulate the feat of their city rivals last season. At +1400 they are worth a bet.
Atlanta, after their heroics in last season’s Serie A, can’t be ignored, especially at +1800, but they are ensconced in their first-ever Champions League campaign which will impact on their management of a fairly modest squad. This may not be their season in the Coppa Italia.
Finally, outsiders traditionally don’t win this competition, but if anyone fancies a punt on a longshot, I’d recommend Cagliari, who have made a bright start to this season’s Serie A.
My pick: Roma to win the Coppa Italia (+1400)