Austria vs Spain Goalscorer Picks & Best Longshot Prop Bets

• Mikel Oyarzabal provides elite value in the anytime goalscorer markets
• Marko Arnautovic remains my ultimate high-variance underdog play
• See my three Spain vs Austria goalscorer picks for Thursday, July 2

Heavily-favored Spain meets underdog Austria in Los Angeles at 3:00 pm ET on Thursday afternoon. Currently the fourth-favorite in the odds to win the World Cup, La Roja are destined to control possession and apply consisted pressure to a vulnerable Austrian back line. But the Austrians have a wealth of attacking talent and have only been blanked in one of their last eight matches.

With that dynamic in mind, I have scoured the Spain/Austria goalscorer and assist markets to find my favorite player props to bet. The table below summarizes my two anytime goalscorer predictions and one assist pick, plus the best-available odds for each. Under the table, I have set out my rationale for all three, plus one-click options to tail the bets.

Spain vs Austria Anytime Goalscorer Picks & Props to Bet

My three picks are all plus-money, but Oyarzabal barely meets that standard at 49 cents (a price which moved up three cents from yesterday).

My lone pick among the Austrians is priced at +450. A goal from Arnautovic would mean a big profit regardless of what the Spanish players do but, if he’s held off the scoresheet, I need both an Oyarzabal goal and Yamal assist to finish the game in the black (assuming one-unit wagers on all players, which is my usual tack).

Mikel Oyarzabal Anytime Goalscorer (49¢ / +104 at Kalshi)

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Prop Pick #1

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Kalshi

Mikel Oyarzabal 1+ Goal

49%

Predict

Spain’s suffocating style of play allows their forwards virtually uninterrupted residence in the penalty area. They command a tournament-high 69% average ball possession, and Oyarzabal remains the primary beneficiary of that dominance.

The current 49-cent price (up from 46 cents yesterday) is still playable. His recent game logs show consistent national-team production; Oyarzabal has scored or assisted in eight of his last 12 Spain appearances, with 13 total goals in that span. That includes two goals and an assist in 45 minutes against Saudi Arabia in the group stage, a goal in 45 minutes against Peru on June 9, two goals in 63 minutes against Serbia on March 27, and World Cup qualifying production against Turkey, Georgia, and Bulgaria.

Facing an Austrian defense that surrendered six goals over its first three fixtures, Oyarzabal is positioned to convert Spain’s territorial edge into chances. Trading at 49 cents on Kalshi implies roughly +104 odds, a fair return for the central scorer on a heavy favorite.

Marko Arnautovic Anytime Goal Scorer (+450 at bet365)

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Spain enters this knockout fixture having kept three consecutive clean sheets, so Arnautovic is not a safe pick. He is my high-variance longshot play at +450, though. He occupies a clear finishing role whenever Austria creates enough danger.

Arnautovic has 12 goals and two assists across his last 17 Austria appearances. The recent World Cup sample is especially portentous: he scored in 45 minutes against Jordan on June 17 and scored again in 45 minutes against Algeria on June 28, giving him two goals in three tournament appearances despite playing only 112 total minutes.

He also produced two goals against Cyprus in November, four against San Marino in October, and two goals plus an assist against San Marino in June. San Marino is literally the worst team UEFA has to offer – and the entire globe, according to the latest FIFA rankings – but the stats are still indicative of his role within his team’s attack.

The matchup is obviously difficult, but the price already accounts for that. At +450, Arnautovic does not need Austria to control the match; he just needs one set piece, penalty, rebound, or transition chance. If Austria finds a goal against Spain, his scoring profile makes him the most logical longshot to back.

Lamine Yamal Anytime Assist (38¢ / +163 at Kalshi)

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Prop Pick #3

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Kalshi

Lamine Yamal 1+ Goal

45%

Predict

I was originally going to include Yamal 1+ goal at 41 cents here, but his priced moved all the way to 45 cents over the last 12 or so hours. I have pivoted that pick Yamal 1+ assist at 38 cents (+163), which offers significantly better value based on the data.

The goal market asks you to pay a higher implied probability for an outcome that has hit less often across his broader Spain game log, while the assist price better matches his national-team role as a wide creator in a Spain side expected to dominate the ball.

Yamal has five goals and 10 assists across his last 22 Spain appearances. He has recorded an assist in eight of those matches, compared with a goal in four. The more recent sample is a little more goal-friendly – four goals and three assists across his last 11 Spain appearances – but even there, the assist case is helped by price. At 38 cents, the assist market implies roughly +163 odds; at 45 cents, the goal market is closer to +122.

The matchup also points toward the assist. Spain’s 69% average possession should give Yamal repeated chances to isolate Austria’s fullbacks and create for Oyarzabal or late runners, while Austria’s defense has already allowed six goals in three tournament matches.

Yamal had World Cup qualifying assists against Turkey and Bulgaria, plus earlier assists against Switzerland, England, Germany, Georgia, Croatia, and Northern Ireland.

At these prices, I would rather buy his chance-creation role at 38 cents than need him to be the finisher at 45 cents.