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Bundesliga Matchday 29 Odds & Picks: Will Road Teams Stay Hot?

Cologne's Mark Uth
Mark Uth has been hot for Cologne but missed a penalty in midweek action. Photo by @ma_ziebaa (Twitter)
  • It’s a busy week in the German Bundesliga schedule with a third round of fixtures starting Friday in Matchday 29
  • Will road teams continue their success after winning 12 of 27 matches since the restart?
  • Odds for each game on Matchday 29 plus our best bets for the card follow below

It’s a jam-packed week of Bundesliga action after midweek play took place on both Tuesday and Wednesday and Matchday 29 kicking off on Friday afternoon between Freiburg and Leverkusen.

While neutrals are likely letdown that Dortmund failed to close the gap with Bayern in the title race in their 1-0 loss Tuesday, there’s still plenty to be decided and a heated Top 4 race to play for.

We’re now three rounds into the resumption of the Bundesliga and the question of the value of home-field continues to gain traction. We now have 27 games worth of data and the question of, “Is it something or nothing?” continues to slant towards the “something” side of the scale. And slant may be too light a word. Road teams have had overwhelmingly more success thus far with a 12-10-5 (WDL) record. Will the results begin to balance out?

We look ahead to the weekend and try to isolate some best bets.

Bundesliga Matchday 29 Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Freiburg +0.5, +1 (EVEN) +370 O 3 (-110)
Bayer Leverkusen -0.5, -1 (-120) -145 U 3 (-110)
Draw N/A +295 N/A
Team Spread Moneyline Total
Hertha Berlin -0.5 (-120) -110 O 2.5, 3 (-105)
Augsburg +0.5 (EVEN) +280 U 2.5, 3 (-115)
Draw N/A +275 N/A
Team Spread Moneyline Total
Mainz 0 (+105) +175 O 3 (-125)
Hoffenheim 0 (-125) +140 U 3 (+105)
Draw N/A +270 N/A
Team Spread Moneyline Total
Schalke 0 (-120) +150 O 2.5 (EVEN)
Werder Bremen 0 (EVEN) +180 U 2.5 (-120)
Draw N/A +235 N/A
Team Spread Moneyline Total
Wolfsburg -0.5 (-105) -110 O 2.5, 3 (-120)
Eintracht Frankfurt +0.5 (-115) +270 U 2.5, 3 (EVEN)
Draw N/A +275 N/A
Team Spread Moneyline Total
Bayern Munich -3 (-105) -1800 O 4 (-120)
Fortuna Dusseldorf +3 (-115) +2800 U 4 (EVEN)
Draw N/A +1100 N/A
Team Spread Moneyline Total
Borussia Monchengladbach -1 (-120) -200 O 2.5, 3 (-120)
Union Berlin +1 (EVEN) +575 U 2.5, 3 (EVEN)
Draw N/A +325 N/A
Team Spread Moneyline Total
Paderborn +1.5 (-105) +750 O 3, 3.5 (-110)
Borussia Dortmund -1.5 (-115) -305 U 3, 3.5 (-110)
Draw N/A +450 N/A
Team Spread Moneyline Total
Cologne +1 (EVEN) +450 O 3, 3.5 (-115)
RB Leipzig -1 (-120) -180 U 3, 3.5 (-105)
Draw N/A +340 N/A

All odds taken May 28

Pick 1: Wolfsburg vs Eintracht Frankfurt

Sixth-place Wolfsburg are hosting 14th-place Eintracht Frankfurt at 9:30 am EST on Saturday. The match has equally important implications for each, with Wolfsburg looking to hold onto the final Europa League spot and Frankfurt only two points above the relegation zone.

Wolfsburg were 2-1 winners over Augsburg in their first game back but followed that up with a 2-0 defeat to Dortmund. On Tuesday they traveled to Bayer Leverkusen and put on an offensive masterclass scoring four times in a 4-1 win, with Marin Pongracic recording a brace. Wolfsburg had just 30.3-percent possession but attempted 14 shots and put nine on target. The win gives the Wolves just a single defeat in nine matches.

The story is not as positive on the Frankfurt side as they are now winless in six league matches. They entered the stoppage with 4-0, 2-1 and 4-0 losses. Coming out of the break they fell 3-1 to Gladbach and 5-2 to Bayer Munich. On Tuesday they fell behind 3-1 to the typically low-scoring Freiburg, before grabbing two late goals at the 79′ and 82′ minutes to end the game level at 3-3.

It was a wild game that saw Frankfurt total 35 attempts on goal and put 16 on target.

This current six-game skid for Frankfurt has seen them be outscored 21-7. Look a bit further back in their fixture list and you’ll find high-scoring affairs have been the norm. Their last 12 matches have seen both teams score in eight and OVER 2.5 totals bets cash in ten. In fact, Frankfurt have the fourth-highest total of matches that have exceeded 2.5 goals with OVER 2.5 cashing in 21/27 games. Their matches average 3.6 GPG.

 

And while Wolfsburg are at the bottom of those rankings with only 13/28 matches going OVER 2.5, their recent offensive explosion, mixed with Frankfurt’s shaky backline, gives hope that we’ll see plenty of goals on Saturday. Earlier this season Wolfsburg won 2-0 on the road against Frankfurt despite having just 30.8-percent possession and being outshot 17-9 (attempts) and 9-6 (on target). Some better finishing by Frankfurt this time around should mean for an easy OVER.

Pick: Over 2.5 (-150)

Pick 2: Schalke vs Werder Bremen

One of four matches to kick off at 9:30 am EST on Saturday sees ninth-place Schalke hosting 17th-place Werder Bremen.

At first glance this looks like one of the weaker games on the slate. And while it may not offer fireworks, it could offer betting value.

With three-straight losses, no team has emerged from the break in worse form than Schalke. The Royal Blues were blasted 4-0 and 3-0 by Dortmund and Augsburg respectively, followed by Wednesday’s 2-1 defeat to Fortuna Dusseldorf. While they managed to break the stalemate 53 minutes into the match, they quickly conceded goals in the 63′ and 68′ to extend a streak which has seen them run winless in nine matches. They’ve also now lost five of six.

Werder have been one of the league’s weakest sides this year and returning from the shutdown to a 4-1 hammering by Bayer Leverkusen did little to gain them any positive headlines when the sporting world’s eyes were turned onto the Bundesliga this month.

Many pundits, myself included, have been betting against them the past few rounds. To be fair when you concede multiple goals in nine of 11 league matches and win only once, I think those bets were warranted.

But Werder have responded with four points in the past two rounds. First, a 1-0 win over Freiburg and then a  0-0 draw to fourth-place Borussia Monchengladbach midweek.

Schalke were 2-1 victors when these sides met back in November, however, Werder had taken the win in each of their previous three meetings by scorelines of 2-0, 4-2 and 2-0.

This matchup is usually full of goals as it’s been ten games across all competitions since fewer than three goals have been scored between the two in a match. Both teams have scored in six of those ten and OVER 2.5 goal totals have cashed in eight.

But Schalke have scored once in three matches since the return and Bremen just twice. So instead of the goals market, I see some value in backing a Bremen win at +180 or covering yourself with Draw No Bet at -110. With two teams in unspectacular form, siding with the road team has proven the way to go the past few rounds.

Pick: Werder Bremen Draw No Bet (-110)

Pick 3: Cologne vs RB Leipzig

Monday’s lone match should shape up to be a good one at 2:30 pm EST between Cologne at home to RB Leipzig.

Each side suffered disappointing midweek results. Leipzig got Wednesday’s matches started, still with a slim shot of catching Bayern in the title race, but more likely with a strong shot at second place.

A meeting with the resurgent Hertha Berlin was never going to be easy, but it was still a match Julian Nagelsmann would’ve expected to win. Instead, it was Hertha who struck early just nine minutes in and while Leipzig would draw level 15 minutes later, defender Marcel Halstenberg was shown red near the hour-mark and reduced Leipzig to ten men. Against these odds, Leipzig still took the lead just minutes later, but a late PK goal by Hertha would level the score at 2-2.

It was more dropped points for RBL as they’ve now drawn four of their past five matches and six of their past nine. Now nine points back of Bayern, the focus changes to trying to leapfrog Dortmund for second and maintaining their position in the Top 4.

Cologne came out of the break with back-to-back 2-2 draws but fell 3-1 away to Hoffenheim on Wednesday. Against Mainz, they couched up a two-goal lead to draw, whereas vs Fortuna Dusseldorf they did the reverse and clawed back from two goals down. Against Hoffenheim, they fell behind early conceding just 11 minutes in and then shot themselves in the foot when CB Sebastiaan Bornaux took a straight red in the 26′ minute.

Despite being a man down, Cologne did apply pressure the rest of the way in the first half and did have chances to draw level. Yet they still entered the half down by one. The game would soon be put out of reach with two quick Hoffenheim goals in the second half.

Hoffenheim though, would take a red card of their own right after scoring their third, and Cologne would score their lone goal on the hour-mark. The Billy Goats had a chance to cut the lead to one, but Mark Uth’s penalty was stopped by Oliver Baumann in the 77′.

In five all-time meetings between these teams, goals and Leipzig wins have been a common theme. Leipzig owns a 3-1-1 record and both teams have scored in every match. The past four meetings have all seen three or more goals scored as well.

In the latest meeting, Leipzig jumped out to a quick 3-0 lead at home on Matchday 12 before Cologne cut the lead to two before the end of the first half. The score would remain that way until Leipzig added their fourth and Emil Forsberg’s second of the game in the 79′ minute for the 4-1 win.

The final score wasn’t the only thing heavily titled in Leipzig’s favor, so too were most of every major stat. Leipzig held nearly 70-percent of possession, had more attempts (21-6) and more shots on target (8-1).

Leipzig are definitely the stronger side and may have the “road” advantage here. They also have just one defeat in 19 matches, so I definitely can’t endorse backing the home side Cologne to buck that trend.

The Billy Goats are now winless in four matches and basically stuck in mid-table limbo. However, they have scored in each of their past 14 matches. Their game totals have also exceeded 2.5 in each of the past 11.

Pick: BTTS and Over 2.5 goals (-134)

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